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China’s Fujian carrier racing to kill America’s torpedo threat

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China’s Fujian carrier racing to kill America’s torpedo threat

China’s newest aircraft carrier may carry a weapon built to kill incoming torpedoes, a sign that its blue-water ambitions still face their deadliest threat from below.

This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that China’s newly commissioned aircraft carrier, the Fujian, is likely to become the world’s first carrier equipped with an active anti-torpedo torpedo (ATT) defense system, giving it a cutting-edge “hard-kill” capability against advanced Western submarines.

The Fujian, China’s third aircraft carrier and its first domestically designed vessel, features a six-tube, 324-millimeter lightweight torpedo launcher that replaces the conventional 12-tube depth charge launchers seen on its predecessors.

The system appears to be designed as a direct response to the “severe threat” posed by the US Navy’s Seawolf-class and next-generation SSN(X) attack submarines, with heavy wire-guided torpedoes capable of inflicting more devastating damage on large warships than anti-ship missiles.

The advanced defensive interceptor uses a broadband sonar array to distinguish real targets from decoys and a high-torque permanent-magnet pump-jet thruster capable of accelerating the weapon to 50 to 60 knots within three seconds to track highly maneuverable torpedoes.

To guarantee single-hit destruction, the ATT deploys directional shaped charges and overpressure shockwaves, with potential supercavitation upgrades enabling defensive velocities of up to 200 knots to counter close-range underwater threats.

China’s development of an active ATT system for the Fujian reflects an effort to compensate for persistent PLAN anti-submarine warfare deficiencies by strengthening the carrier strike group’s organic point-defense layer against advanced US undersea threats.

China’s current carrier doctrine may underscore its deficiencies in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities.

Steve Balestrieri notes in a February 2026 article for 1945 that China’s carriers were designed to operate relatively close to its shores, under cover of land-based missile networks and aircraft, rather than having comprehensive onboard defenses. Balestrieri points out that the approach stands in contrast to US carriers, which serve as “roaming nerve centers”  for a wider network.

Consequently, he says that while China relies on long-range land-based missiles to threaten enemy carriers at range, its carriers remain vulnerable to direct attack. He adds that US Virginia-class submarines, armed with the Mk48 heavyweight torpedo and Maritime Strike Tomahawk (MST) missiles, can threaten Chinese carriers.

Deficiencies in PLAN ASW capabilities, particularly airborne ASW, could compound the vulnerability of China’s carriers to US submarines. Eli Tirk and Daniel Salisbury point out in a May 2024 report for the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) that China’s airborne ASW force has historically been constrained by a shortage of fixed-wing maritime patrol aircraft and has struggled with lagging operator proficiency and training deficiencies.

Tirk and Salisbury say that PLAN airborne ASW training has traditionally lacked realism due to administrative barriers that prevent training in diverse environments. Beyond that, they add that while the PLAN has aggressively fielded newer platforms, qualitative advancements in sensor data processing and weapons remain constrained, leaving the force’s capability to execute complex joint-arms ASW operations largely aspirational.

Highlighting wider systemic vulnerabilities in the PLAN’s ASW capabilities, Andrew Erickson mentions in a March 2026 US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) testimony that a critical impediment is China’s deficient meteorology and oceanography capabilities, which lag behind the US Navy and leave the PLAN with a comparative ignorance of the ocean battlespace.

He adds that a lack of deployed sensors, limited patrol aviation, and inadequate logistics infrastructure severely constrains out-of-area ASW operations. He also states that the PLAN faces major operational weaknesses in mine countermeasures (MCM) and real-time, time-sensitive data fusion due to complex intra-service coordination hurdles.

While the PLAN has overtaken the US Navy in fleet size, the latter maintains a significant advantage in submarine stealth.

In a report this month for the Korea Institute of Maritime Strategy (KIMS), Erickson points out that acoustic signatures remain a persistent Achilles heel for Chinese submarines, leaving second-generation Type 093 nuclear attack submarine (SSN) and Type 094 nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) hulls significantly louder at high speeds than their world-class US counterparts due to a lack of advanced pump jet propulsion and natural reactor circulation.

Erickson notes that while China’s initial nuclear platforms suffered from extreme noise deficiencies, the PLAN has worked aggressively to close this acoustic gap. He adds that through lower-vibration machinery and reverse-engineered Russian pneumatic isolation mounts, China has achieved noteworthy breakthroughs, with its forthcoming third-generation Type 095 SSN and Type 096 SSBN projected to finally approach Russian Improved Akula-class stealth standards.

Also, US submarines are actively operating along China’s periphery. The South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a Chinese think tank, released a report in June 2026 stating that in 2025 the US deployed at least 11 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) and one nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine (SSGN), the USS Ohio, in the South China Sea.

The SCSPI report adds that the US Navy relied on auxiliary submarine tenders, including the USS Emory S. Land and USS Frank Cable, to provide critical logistics support and conduct multinational port visits to sustain these forward-deployed undersea forces.

But as China builds its fourth aircraft carrier, likely nuclear-powered, it may eventually be able to sustain power projection beyond the First Island Chain, which runs through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. Consequently, its nuclear-powered carriers and escorts may need to operate more independently of land-based support, placing greater emphasis on all-aspect, organic layered defenses.

In a June 2024 CMSI report, Daniel Rice notes that China’s carrier strike groups employ a multi-layered defensive concept organized into three concentric zones. According to Rice, the Depth Defense Zone, spanning 185 to 400 kilometers out, relies on submarines conducting offensive sweeps and J-15 multirole fighters for long-range air and ship strikes.

He mentions that the Middle Area Defense Zone, spanning 45 to 185 kilometers, is guarded by large surface combatants; Type 052D destroyers provide multi-target tracking and advanced air defense, while Type 054A frigates handle subsurface screening.

Finally, he says the Point Defense Zone extends from 100 meters to 45 kilometers, using terminal defense systems to intercept targets that breach the outer layers.

In view of that layered approach to carrier defense, China’s new ATT may play a role in the Point Defense Zone, providing an additional layer to already formidable carrier defenses.

If China’s carriers are to move from protected regional bastions into sustained blue-water operations, systems such as Fujian’s ATT will matter less as standalone breakthroughs than as tests of whether the PLAN can integrate sensors, escorts, aircraft, submarines and command networks into a genuinely survivable carrier ecosystem.

The next contest, then, will not be over whether China can bolt advanced defenses onto individual capital ships, but whether it can close the wider undersea-warfare gap fast enough to make those ships credible instruments of power projection in waters where US submarines still hold a quiet advantage.

Macron’s Damascus Visit Opens Door to French Investment in Syria 

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Macron’s Damascus Visit Opens Door to French Investment in Syria 


Banking assistance, transportation agreements, asset recovery, and corporate participation signal a shift from diplomatic outreach toward economic cooperation 

[DAMASCUS] French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on July 6-7, 2026, marked the most visible sign yet of a thaw in French-Syrian relations, as both governments sought to move beyond years of diplomatic estrangement toward cooperation centered on diplomacy, economic recovery, and reconstruction.

The meeting between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Macron produced more than symbolic declarations about restoring dialogue. The two sides announced a series of practical initiatives, including French technical assistance for Syria’s banking sector, transportation-related cooperation, procedures to return assets confiscated in France from members of the Assad family, and the return of Syrian antiquities held in Paris for years.

The visit also carried broader geopolitical significance. Damascus is seeking to rebuild its international legitimacy after years of isolation, while Paris appears eager to reestablish its influence in Syria before reconstruction opportunities are claimed by competing regional and international actors.

Al-Sharaa described the visit as “an important development” in bilateral relations and said France had played a constructive role in supporting Syria’s reintegration into the international community. He said the next phase of cooperation would focus on infrastructure, financial reform, and other sectors in which French investment and expertise could contribute to rebuilding the country.

The visit comes against the backdrop of a complex relationship dating to the French Mandate in Syria from 1920 to 1946. Following independence, ties fluctuated between periods of cooperation and political tension, although diplomatic, economic, and cultural contacts continued through the 1990s and early 2000s. Major milestones included former French President Jacques Chirac’s visit to Damascus in 1996 and then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s participation in France’s Bastille Day celebrations in 2008 at the invitation of then-President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Relations collapsed after the outbreak of Syria’s uprising in 2011. France withdrew its ambassador, closed its embassy in Damascus, and became one of the leading European advocates of sanctions against Assad’s government. Syria’s political transition has since prompted Paris to reassess its approach, with Macron’s visit representing the clearest indication yet that France is prepared to engage with Syria’s new leadership.

Ayman Abdelnour, a US-based Syrian reformist and economist affiliated with the Arab Christian Congress and the Middle East Institute’s Syria Program Advisory Council, said the significance of the visit lay not simply in the presence of a French president in Damascus, but in the substance of what emerged from the talks.

Paris and Damascus have moved beyond testing each other’s intentions toward building shared interests

“Paris and Damascus have moved beyond testing each other’s intentions toward building shared interests,” Abdelnour told The Media Line. “France understands that Syria is entering a new phase in which the country’s economic landscape will be reshaped. Remaining absent would allow other regional and international players to cement their positions in reconstruction, energy, and infrastructure projects.”

He said the practical measures announced during the visit distinguished it from previous diplomatic contacts and suggested an intention to turn political rapprochement into sustained cooperation.

The composition of Macron’s delegation reinforced that message. Alongside senior government officials, the French president was accompanied by representatives of major French companies, showing that economic cooperation featured as prominently as political and security issues.

Samir Tawil, a Syrian economic journalist based in France, said the delegation reflected growing recognition in Paris that future relations with Syria would depend as much on economic partnerships as diplomatic engagement.

“The agreements announced during the visit—from financial-sector cooperation to transportation and asset recovery—show that France is not simply testing the waters,” Tawil told The Media Line. “Paris is seeking to establish an early foothold in what is expected to become an increasingly competitive reconstruction environment.”

For Damascus, Macron’s visit represented more than a diplomatic breakthrough. Syrian officials see it as an opportunity to strengthen the country’s international legitimacy, persuade Western governments that the post-Assad political transition has created conditions for a different relationship with Europe, and encourage other European governments to reopen political and economic channels.

Dr. Faten Ramadan, a Syrian political and human rights activist who heads the organization Sans Menottes, said the visit provided the new leadership with important diplomatic momentum because it came from a country that had long helped shape Europe’s Syria policy.

“A French president’s visit to Damascus after years of diplomatic estrangement carries significance far beyond protocol,” Ramadan told The Media Line. “It reflects recognition that Syria’s political landscape has changed and that engagement with the new leadership is becoming part of a different European approach.”

She cautioned that rebuilding relations with Europe would require more than a single visit, adding that France’s move could encourage other European capitals if the new Syrian authorities deliver tangible results.

That assessment was echoed by Mazen Alloush, director of relations at Syria’s General Authority for Border Crossings and Customs, who attended the meetings between the two presidents. “The economic agenda featured prominently alongside political discussions,” Alloush told The Media Line. “Talks focused on rebuilding state institutions, modernizing infrastructure, and creating an environment capable of attracting foreign investment.”

The objective is also to reassure European investors that Syria is open to partnerships and investment opportunities during the next phase

He said Damascus views cooperation with France as the beginning of a broader economic partnership rather than a series of isolated agreements. “The objective is also to reassure European investors that Syria is open to partnerships and investment opportunities during the next phase,” he said.

Kenana Khalaf Alkorde, a Syrian political activist, journalist, and media figure from Deir ez-Zor, said the participation of business leaders demonstrated that France increasingly views Syria as a future economic partner, not merely a political or security issue. “French interest extends to infrastructure, energy, transportation, financial services, and public-sector rehabilitation,” she told The Media Line. “These sectors will require significant investment and international expertise after years of conflict.”

Among the visit’s most consequential announcements was France’s commitment to provide technical assistance to the Central Bank of Syria, a move economists describe as essential for rebuilding investor confidence.

Mohammad Faroun, a Syrian economist working in the exhibitions and conferences sector, said banking reform is fundamental to attracting foreign capital. “Any serious investor needs a banking system capable of handling international transactions, providing financing, and operating according to globally recognized standards,” he told The Media Line. 

Faroun said modernizing Syria’s financial institutions would help reconnect the country’s economy to international markets and create conditions necessary for long-term investment.

Another significant outcome was France’s decision to begin procedures for returning €51 million, around $58 million, in assets confiscated from members of the Assad family. Faroun said the announcement carries political as well as financial significance. “It demonstrates France’s willingness to cooperate with Damascus on sensitive legal and financial issues that would have been politically difficult only a short time ago.”

He added that the move could encourage similar initiatives elsewhere while reinforcing the Syrian government’s efforts to recover public assets through internationally recognized legal mechanisms.

France’s renewed engagement with Damascus is driven by more than bilateral diplomacy. According to analysts, Paris is responding to a rapidly changing regional landscape in which Syria’s political transition has created strategic and economic openings.

Mosab Al-Saoud, a France-based Syrian journalist and member of the Oversight and Transparency Board of the Syrian Journalists Association, said the emergence of a new leadership in Damascus has prompted French policymakers to reassess a policy that remained largely unchanged for more than a decade. “The new authorities have presented themselves as a government committed to rebuilding state institutions and reopening Syria to the international community,” Al-Saoud told The Media Line. “That has created a different political reality for Paris.”

He argued that France’s calculations extend beyond diplomacy. “Security remains a key consideration,” he said. “Stability in Syria affects European interests through counterterrorism, migration, and security in the Eastern Mediterranean.”

Paris is also aware, he added, that remaining on the sidelines would leave reconstruction opportunities to competing regional and international powers.

Tawil said the business presence showed France’s intention to secure an early position in sectors expected to drive Syria’s recovery. “The cargo-handling agreement at Damascus International Airport should be viewed as more than a stand-alone project,” Tawil said. “It could become the first practical step toward the return of French companies to the Syrian market.”

He said successful implementation would likely encourage additional European firms to consider investment if Syria succeeds in providing a stable legal and economic environment.

The visit also produced a symbolic cultural breakthrough with France’s decision to return 23 Syrian antiquities that had remained at the Arab World Institute in Paris. The number was modest, but the timing gave the move political weight because the return coincided with the restoration of high-level ties between the two countries.

Alkorde described the decision as an important confidence-building measure. “Cultural cooperation is often one of the first signs that political trust is being rebuilt,” she noted. “Returning these artifacts could pave the way for broader cooperation in protecting Syria’s cultural heritage and recovering additional antiquities held abroad.”

The visit unfolded against a reminder that Syria’s security challenges have not disappeared. Two improvised explosive devices detonated in Damascus while Macron was in the capital, injuring several people, including police officers. Syrian security forces launched an investigation, but the French president continued his schedule unchanged.

Abdelnour said that the decision carried political significance. “Paris does not intend to allow a single security incident to dictate the future of its relationship with Damascus,” he said. “Continuing the visit demonstrated that France views engagement with Syria’s new leadership as a long-term strategic choice.”

The attacks showed that attracting international investment will depend not only on political engagement but also on the state’s ability to provide lasting security and institutional stability. As one of the European Union’s most influential members, France could become the first major European power to test a new model of engagement with Damascus.

Ultimately, they will be judged by implementation rather than political declarations

Ramadan said the visit has the potential to influence broader European policy—but only if its promises are translated into measurable results. “The agreements announced this week represent an important opportunity for both sides,” she said. “Ultimately, they will be judged by implementation rather than political declarations. That is what will determine whether this visit marks a genuine turning point in Syrian-French relations.”

Whether Macron’s trip becomes a lasting reset will depend on what follows: implementation, institutional reform, and whether French-Syrian economic cooperation can survive Syria’s security and political tests.

European Parliament backs negotiations on digital euro as lawmakers stress cash will remain protected

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European Parliament backs negotiations on digital euro as lawmakers stress cash will remain protected


The European Parliament has given the green light for negotiations with the Council on plans to introduce a digital euro, marking a significant step towards creating an EU-backed digital payment option while insisting that cash will remain a fundamental part of the financial system.

MEPs voted strongly to proceed with negotiations on legislation establishing a digital euro. Parliament also approved plans allowing payment service providers based in EU member states outside the euro area to distribute the digital currency. The vote paves the way for interinstitutional talks with the Council, representing member states, with the first round of negotiations expected to begin shortly under the Irish Presidency.

A separate proposal reinforcing the legal tender status of euro banknotes and coins was not challenged in Parliament, allowing negotiations on that file to move forward simultaneously.

Under Parliament’s negotiating position, the digital euro would be issued by the European Central Bank (ECB) as an electronic form of central bank money that could be used for both online and offline payments. The initiative aims to provide consumers with a secure European payment alternative while reducing dependence on payment providers based outside the European Union.

Speaking during a press briefing on Wednesday, Parliament’s rapporteur on the single currency package, centre-right MEP Fernando Navarrete, sought to reassure citizens that the new digital currency is intended to complement rather than replace physical cash.

“The digital euro will complement cash, not replace it. We strengthen access to and acceptance of cash while making central bank money available in digital form. That is what this package is about: protecting cash and enabling a digital euro. It is not about watching, judging, or restricting how citizens pay,” he said.

Navarrete also rejected claims that the digital euro could become a tool for monitoring citizens’ spending habits.

“There is a narrative going around describing a future where your digital payments are monitored and controlled. The digital euro expands freedom, choice, resilience and privacy. More privacy than with current digital means of payment; more resilience to face internet or power disruptions; more freedom to choose how to pay without anybody knowing what we do with our money, and free of geopolitical dependencies,” he stated.

Parliament’s position includes several safeguards designed to protect users and the wider financial system. Privacy protections would ensure transactions are verified without unnecessarily exposing personal data, with information processed only to the extent required for the system to operate.

Basic digital euro services, including opening an account, holding funds and access to at least one payment instrument, would be provided free of charge. To safeguard financial stability, a limit would also be placed on the amount of digital euros an individual can hold.

Most businesses would be required to accept digital euro payments, although exemptions would apply to self-employed individuals and small or micro enterprises that do not already accept other forms of digital payment.

Man Arrested After Cutting Off Genitals and Lighting Them on Fire in Mom’s Garage

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Man Arrested After Cutting Off Genitals and Lighting Them on Fire in Mom’s Garage


An Indiana man is facing an arson charge after police say he seriously injured himself and then started a fire inside his mother’s detached garage.

Christopher Peden, 36, of Fort Wayne, has been charged with arson, according to public court records. If convicted of the felony charge, he could face up to 12 years in prison and a maximum fine of $10,000.

The disturbing case began on May 6, when the Fort Wayne Fire Department responded to a report of a fire in a detached garage. According to court documents reviewed by FOX 59, the homeowners were asleep when neighbors woke them up and alerted them to the blaze.

Around the same time, Fort Wayne police officers found Peden, who initially claimed he had been stabbed in the city’s downtown area after being threatened the day before, the documents said.

But after he was taken to the hospital, Peden reportedly told investigators that he had been “dishonest” and “wanted to be truthful.”

According to documents cited by FOX 59, Peden allegedly admitted that he had harmed himself with a kitchen knife and then used gasoline to set the severed body parts on fire on the garage floor just inside the door.

When investigators searched the scene, they found a gasoline container, four lighters and a kitchen knife, according to reports.

Peden’s mother and brother, who live on the property, told investigators that the garage was only used to store a gas container for the lawnmower and did not have electricity, according to an affidavit reviewed by WRTV.

The fire reportedly damaged two nearby properties and two vehicles.

Fire investigators also said they recovered a gas container, four lighters and a knife from the scene, WRTV reported.

Peden posted a $10,000 bond on Tuesday and is expected back in court early next week, according to public records.

Michigan’s explosive outbreak of diarrheal parasite jumps to over 1,200 cases

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Michigan’s explosive outbreak of diarrheal parasite jumps to over 1,200 cases

Cases of an explosive diarrheal parasite continue to skyrocket in Michigan, which is reporting 1,251 cases as of July 9. Of those, 44 were hospitalized. Meanwhile, across the border in Ohio, cases are also quickly rising, with news reports of a case total over 500.

The outbreak in Michigan began with two cases reported on June 22 and rose steeply at the start of July. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) reported 572 cases on July 4. On Wednesday, July 8, 239 cases were reported, the highest single-day tally so far. The current total of 1,251 cases includes 159 case reports received on July 9.

The epicenter of the outbreak is in the southeastern corner of the state, where health officials from multiple jurisdictions are working furiously to identify and interview cases to track the source or sources of the parasite, which spreads through food and water.

Microscopic menace

That parasite is Cyclospora cayetanensis, a microscopic, single-celled protozoan that is shed in feces and typically infects humans in the US via contaminated produce, though it can also spread in contaminated drinking water. In recent years, the US has been logging between 2,000 and 5,000 cases each year, with the parasite thriving in the summer months. Cases are typically highest in June and July.

While it is still unclear whether this will be a record year for cyclosporiasis cases nationally, it’s certain that Michigan is experiencing an unprecedented outbreak. In past years, the state’s yearly case totals have mostly been around 50; the case tally just in July is already 25 times larger than that usual number. And cases continue to rise, while investigators have not yet identified how people are getting sick.

Cases are also surging across the border from southeastern Michigan into northwestern Ohio. According to the Associated Press, counties in the region have seen more than 500 cases, with Lucas County alone reporting 306 cases as of Wednesday.

Transmission and treatment

Health experts say transmission is most likely through contaminated food—not human-to-human transmission. After the parasite spreads from stool, it takes one to two weeks in the environment for it to become infectious. Once infected, a person usually begins experiencing symptoms about a week later, though onset can range from two days to over two weeks. The main symptom is “watery diarrhea with frequent and sometimes explosive bowel movements,” though a person can also experience nausea, fatigue, cramping, and bloating. Without treatment, the diarrhea can continue for a month or longer. A primary concern is dehydration.

People who begin experiencing diarrhea should contact a healthcare provider to determine if it’s cyclosporiasis, which can be treated with the combination antimicrobial trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, sold as Bactrim.

Prevention

MDHHS is advising people to be cautious about certain produce that has been linked to past cyclosporiasis outbreaks. Officials recommend people avoid bagged lettuces and buy whole heads instead, removing the outer two or three leaves before washing the inner leaves thoroughly. Green onions should be trimmed, and outer layers should be removed before thoroughly washing. Cilantro, basil, and snow peas should be thoroughly washed under running water. For raspberries, which the parasite can cling to and be hard to clean, MDHHS advises people to cook them or at least stick to frozen berries—freezing reduces the risk of the parasite, though it doesn’t eliminate it. In all, the safest choice is cooking.

Flores Hobbits’ eating habits offer clues about their evolutionary past

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Flores Hobbits’ eating habits offer clues about their evolutionary past

Until about 60,000 years ago, diminutive hominin cousins, Homo floresiensis (affectionately nicknamed Hobbits for obvious reasons), shared the island of Flores with Komodo dragons, pygmy elephants, and giant rats.

Based on the presence of hominin and pygmy elephant bones in the same layers of cave sediment, it originally looked like the Hobbits had hunted and butchered dwarf elephants—an impressive feat for such a tiny hominin. But according to University of Tübingen anthropologist Elizabeth Veatch and her colleagues, it was the Komodo dragons that were the hunters, while the Hobbits only showed up to scavenge what was left.

If Veatch and her colleagues are right, their findings may challenge some of the assumptions we’ve made about Homo floresiensis—and about which hominin species was the first to venture into the wider world beyond Africa.

These small hominins weren’t big-game hunters

Extinct pygmy elephant bones unearthed at Liang Bua (the cave site that also seems to have sheltered Homo floresiensis) are covered in marks from Komodo dragon teeth, as well as cut marks from stone tools. Based on these bones, we know that Hobbits and the ancient ancestors of today’s Komodo dragons shared a taste for the same type of meat: pygmy relatives of modern elephants, called Stegodon. At least three species of Stegodon lived on Flores, ranging from 1.25 to almost 2 meters tall and weighing anywhere from 500 kilograms to 1.5 tons.

To better understand the Stegodon bones and how they got to Liang Bua, Veatch and her colleagues started by feeding a nearly whole goat carcass to a Komodo dragon (as one does). The Komodo dragon at Zoo Atlanta had its best day ever, and the researchers compared what resulted to the Stegodon bones from Liang Bua.

The Komodo dragon has serrated teeth and a habit of gripping prey and then shaking its head side to side to rip the flesh away from the bone. This left distinctive marks on the bones, marks that were usually shallower, shorter, and wider than cut marks from stone tools. Veatch and her colleagues also noticed that the zoo’s Komodo dragon went straight for the meatiest parts of the body, which happened to be the same areas where archaeologists found tooth marks on the Stegodon bones at Liang Bua: parts like the limbs and the surprisingly fat-rich feet, as well as the ribs.

Stone tool marks, on the other hand, showed up on the less desirable parts. The pattern didn’t match what you would expect if hominins had first dibs on an elephant they’d just killed, but it did match what you’d expect if they were scrounging for leftovers after the Komodo dragons had eaten their fill. Veatch and her colleagues also found no evidence of fire in the Homo floresiensis layers of the site, which means they probably ate their leftover elephant bits raw. (At least one source claims that elephant meat can be tough to chew if it’s cooked over an open fire, so maybe the Hobbits were onto something.)

That challenges the earlier idea that Homo floresiensis organized and equipped themselves well enough to bring down something as large as a Stegodon. And it may add an interesting angle to an ongoing debate about where Homo floresiensis came from and which hominins were the first to migrate out of Africa. That debate has implications not only for understanding the Hobbits, but for how we make sense of 2-million-year-old stone tools at sites in China.

Liang Bua, the limestone cave on the Indonesian island of Flores where the H. floresiensis remains were found.

Credit: Liang Bua Team

Liang Bua, the limestone cave on the Indonesian island of Flores where the H. floresiensis remains were found. Credit: Liang Bua Team

The Hobbits and “Out of Africa”

The most widely accepted origin story for the Hobbits (and some similarly short-statured cousins on a relatively nearby island) is that they’re descendants of a species called Homo erectus, which first appears in the fossil record around 1.9 million years ago in Africa. Within a few hundred thousand years, Homo erectus fossils show up everywhere: the Levant, Georgia, China, and Indonesia. In Indonesia, it may have been scattered among the islands in isolated pockets that eventually evolved into separate species, like Homo floresiensis and Homo luzonensis. Or at least that’s one hypothesis.

Homo erectus makes sense as the ancestor of the Hobbits, mostly because we typically think of Homo erectus as the first of our hominin ancestors to expand beyond Africa. The oldest hominin bones found anywhere outside Africa belong to Homo erectus: five skulls and hundreds of other bones, all dating between 1.77 million and 1.85 million years from Dmanisi Cave in Georgia. But stone tools tell a different story.

Stone tools from two sites in China seem to be older than Homo erectus. At Shangchen, a site on the southern edge of China’s Loess Plateau, archaeologists unearthed stone tools from a 2.1-million-year-old layer of sediment. And at the Xihoudu site in northern China, stone tools date to 2.43 million years ago. So either Homo erectus is older than we thought, or some other hominin species got there first. If that’s the case, then an even older member of our genus, like Homo habilis or Homo rudolfensis—species that anthropologists previously surmised weren’t adaptable enough to gain footholds in so many different parts of the world—may be the real ancestor of the Hobbits.

Veatch and her colleagues’ study, along with several previous studies of Homo floresiensis‘ anatomy and behavior, may lend some support to that idea.

chart showing different skull features of four hominin species

This comparison shows Homo floresiensis alongside the skulls of two of its potential ancestors, plus Homo naledi.

This comparison shows Homo floresiensis alongside the skulls of two of its potential ancestors, plus Homo naledi.

“Evidence for behavioral complexity in Homo floresiensis, including complex tool and fire use, have weakened considerably over time,” wrote Veatch and her colleagues. “The evidence to date suggests that Homo floresiensis did not engage in a behavioral repertoire as diverse or as flexible as in modern humans or Neanderthals, possibly due to an ancestry in which large game hunting and controlled use of fire did not evolve.”

In other words, hominins descended from Homo erectus should have at least the same skills and cognitive abilities, which would include things like using fire and, potentially, organized hunting parties. Without those abilities, it’s easier to see Homo floresiensis as potentially descended from some earlier, less brainy species—still tool-users, but not fire-using big-game hunters—like Homo habilis or Homo rudolfensis.

Of course, we still don’t know the answer, and the evidence is complicated.

photo of a partial hominin skeleton in a display case

The skeleton of a female Homo floresiensis in the Natural History Museum in London.

Credit: Emőke Dénes, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

The skeleton of a female Homo floresiensis in the Natural History Museum in London. Credit: Emőke Dénes, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Evidence is clear; interpretation is tricky

Veatch and her colleagues’ recent study isn’t the first to challenge the idea that Homo floresiensis hunted big game and used fire, or that they descended from Homo erectus. Some of Homo floresiensis’ features, like the shapes of bones in its feet and the angle of its upper arms, suggest that it may be more closely related to Australopiths like Lucy than to Homo erectus.

On the other hand, despite having a smaller brain than Homo erectus (even relative to its body size), the contours of the inside of Homo floresiensis‘s skull suggest that its prefrontal cortex—an area of the brain associated with cognitive feats like planning and executive function—may have been fairly similar in size and structure to ours.

And it’s hard to say whether hunting Stegodon is a good measure of the Hobbits’ intellectual prowess anyway. Wielding projectile weapons, strategizing group hunts, and bringing down big prey all point to well-developed cognitive abilities (exactly the kind suggested by that hefty prefrontal cortex, in fact), and so does using fire to cook the meat afterward. However, hunting pygmy elephants may simply not have been worth the effort, even for a species that was otherwise capable of doing it.

When you calculate the cost, in time and energy, of killing, butchering, and transporting a carcass (which Veatch and her colleagues did, based on ethnographic data from people who live near modern elephants), elephants just aren’t worth the effort, let alone the risk.

“Although Homo floresiensis could gain a large total calorie return by successfully hunting Stegodon, the costs involved could potentially outweigh any social and/or caloric advantages,” Veatch and her colleagues suggest. Giant rats offered a much better return on investment; they rank ninth on Veatch and her colleagues’ list of Flores most appealing prey species, with Stegodon clocking in at 17th. And that’s probably why giant rat remains are so abundant at Liang Bua, in the layers of the cave associated with Homo floresiensis and the later Homo sapiens layers.

Even though it’s now clear that the Hobbits were not big-game hunters, and it doesn’t look like they used fire at Liang Bua, it’s much less clear what those facts tell us about the Hobbits’ brains or which branch of our family tree they actually belong on. As always, we need more evidence to fill in the details.

photo of a Komodo dragon

10/10, would risk death to boop this snoot.

Credit: Zoo Atlanta

10/10, would risk death to boop this snoot. Credit: Zoo Atlanta

The questions we can answer

We know you’re wondering: Komodo dragons are venomous, so wouldn’t eating scraps scavenged from their kills have poisoned the Hobbits? The proteins in Komodo dragon venom are too large to pass through modern humans’ stomach linings and would probably have been broken down by the Hobbits’ digestive enzymes, according to Veatch and her colleagues. Please do not test this on yourself (but if you do, email us).

Scavengers would probably have been cautious about approaching kill sites, though. At around 3 meters long and weighing in at 70 kilograms, a Komodo dragon isn’t a beast you would want to encounter in a dark alley or even a reasonably well-lit Indonesian jungle. Now picture yourself as a Homo floresiensis, standing just over a meter tall. The Komodo dragon is three times your size, and has bony-armored skin, serrated teeth (the better to rip your flesh with), and a keen sense of smell (the better to track wounded prey with).

We don’t know whether Komodo dragons snacked on Hobbits back in the day, but there’s no evidence that they did, and Komodo dragons today mostly avoid humans, usually attacking only when they can’t flee.

Of the three species involved here (Homo floresiensis, Stegodon, and Komodo dragons), only the Komodo dragons survive today. Make of that what you will.

Science Advances, 2026 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aeb7219 (About DOIs).

NATO summit arms deals show realism trumps values

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NATO summit arms deals show realism trumps values

The liberal internationalist story has always been seductive: Democracies prefer each other, build institutions together and let shared values govern how they distribute power and resources.

But this week’s NATO summit in Ankara showed that security imperatives trump liberal values in today’s geopolitics.

First, let’s examine the pattern of defense spending. NATO allies gathered in Ankara to announce arms deals worth tens of billions of dollars, structured almost entirely around demonstrating to the Trump administration that Europe was finally paying its share.

This was carefully calibrated to satisfy a transactional US president who has consistently subordinated values-based ideological alignment to security burden-sharing calculations.

Deals announced in Ankara — including Europe’s procurement of American AMRAAM, PAC-3 and GMLRS-variant missiles — involved almost exclusively NATO allies, consolidating a transatlantic defense industrial base that keeps procurement, co-production and R&D tightly guarded within the treaty perimeter.

President Donald Trump has long demanded quantifiable increases in US defense exports, but the overarching need is for tighter interoperability within the NATO alliance, which largely requires common systems.

Fortuitously for Trump, this convergence of industrial and operational logic keeps the benefits structurally reserved for those inside the alliance, with the US remaining indispensable — at least for now.

It is also notable that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney chose Germany’s TKMS Type 212CD submarine over South Korea’s Hanwha KSS-III, in a contract worth approximately $70 billion. Both platforms met Canada’s operational requirements, and both came from liberal democracies, leaving no values-based reason to prefer one over the other.

Consistent with alliance logic, Carney emphasized that the deal with Germany would “deepen our partnerships with trusted allies” and “open new opportunities for Canadian businesses in European supply chains,” explicitly tying Canada’s choice to NATO and European integration.

Selecting the German submarine over the Korean one thus integrated Canada deeper into the European defense industrial web.

In Ankara, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung proposed a “Korea-NATO Defense Industry Partnership 2.0” characterized by joint R&D, co-production and the joint operation of weapons systems, and pitched as an upgrade of the conventional buyer-seller model.

If the partnership materializes, still a big if, Korean defense firms could move beyond bilateral cooperation with individual NATO members and gain broader access to alliance-wide procurement and co-production programs.

Hanwha Ocean’s statement after losing the Canadian contract was more circumspect. The Korean company said it had “devoted every effort to winning the contract” — supported by government backing, proven submarine technology and the Korean Navy’s operational track record — but “was unable to overcome the barrier posed by NATO alliances.”

That is effectively an admission that non-NATO member status is still a structural ceiling to deeper integration with the defense alliance.

Second, let’s consider what this portends for Europe. The missile purchases from US firms signed in Ankara may look, on the surface, like transatlantic solidarity. But if the security calculus holds, they should also be regarded as a transitional phase in a longer European strategic project.

In Ankara, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described the alliance as entering the “early stages of a defense industrial revolution,” with a focus on three priorities: deep-strike capability, air defense modernization and autonomous systems.

These priorities are now backed by both economic heft and political will. The Netherlands alone announced more than 3 billion euros in deals, including air defense partnerships with Belgium and naval cooperation with Britain.

NATO simultaneously announced it would replace its aging US-built AWACS fleet with a Swedish alternative — Saab’s GlobalEye, in a deal worth up to $4.5 billion — backing the Swedish system over a rival solution from US defense contractor Boeing. That is another signal that European substitution of American systems is firmly underway.

In April 2026, Germany’s Rheinmetall and Dutch firm Destinus announced a joint venture — Rheinmetall Destinus Strike Systems — to produce mass-scalable cruise missiles and rocket artillery from a 100% European value chain, targeting NATO qualification so that the weapons can be procured by all member states.

The EU’s European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) and its five proposed joint defense projects of common interest — covering drones, maritime and seabed defense, space, air and missile defense, and the Eastern Flank — carry a combined funding ambition of 190 billion euros by 2036.

In the context of future domains like AI, Brussels is already treating autonomous targeting and decision-support systems as strategic infrastructure rather than mere technology, pushing for European-developed models, trusted data pools and secure compute on the continent.

And consistent with the dual-use technology approaches of Washington and Beijing, European defense “primes” and emerging AI firms will be driven to embed AI into sensors, command-and-control and weapons guidance — and to do so on European hardware, cloud and regulatory terms.

The European Commission’s explicit goal is to redirect defense spending inward, reducing the roughly half of European procurement that currently flows outside Europe to the United States, Israel and South Korea.

So while European states currently buy American because of urgent capability gaps and superior US production lines, NATO’s European members should be expected to continue building alternatives on the continent.

That’s because autonomy is the long-term strategic goal, achievable only through the industrial strengthening of states that, per alliance logic, are overlapping members of both NATO and the EU.

Correspondingly, when Europe’s KNDS delivers the next-generation Franco-German main battle tank or when the European missile ecosystem matures, we should expect the leverage Washington currently holds over its European allies through export dependency to progressively diminish.

Finally, let’s consider the effect on the world order. The Ankara summit’s upshot spoke to a longstanding debate in international relations theory. On one hand, liberals often argue that shared values produce durable cooperation — that democracies trust each other because they are transparent, accountable and constrained by domestic politics.

On the other hand, realists argue that security interests and the distribution of power are the primary determinants of international relations.

Ankara demonstrated how NATO premised its industrial agenda on intra-alliance co-production while South Korea, despite its democratic credentials and competitive platforms, was left petitioning at the door.

The same dynamic plays out in the Pacific theater, where, in East Asia Forum’s analysis of the 2026 US National Defense Strategy, Washington plans to integrate South Korean industry into US strategic logistics — shipbuilding, MRO and munitions replenishment — through the bilateral US-Korea treaty channel.

That demonstrates how keenly Seoul’s security flows run through Washington — not Brussels — precisely because the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty is still its operative architecture.

And so, while Korea’s aspirations to deepen its partnership with NATO are both commercial and strategic, they are also subordinate to the bilateral alliance with America that underwrites Seoul’s security.

In the wider world order, liberal democracies may still be more likely to cooperate with one another than with autocracies. Yet NATO’s Ankara summit shows that when security considerations take precedence in the current geopolitical climate, the primary unit of preference is not shared values but alliance membership.

Or, artfully, shared values are the decor, but when the building is under threat, states reinforce the structure rather than redecorate.

Marcus Loh is the chairman of the Public Affairs Group at PRCA Asia Pacific and a director at Temus, a Singapore AI and digital services firm. He is currently reading War Studies at King’s College London.

Syria says arrested cell behind ‘terrorist bombings’ in Damascus

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Syria says arrested cell behind ‘terrorist bombings’ in Damascus

Security forces take strict security measures following two consecutive explosions that occurred near the Ministry of Tourism building, injuring 18 people including four security personnel, in Damascus, Syria on July 7, 2026. [Hişam Hac Ömer - Anadolu Agency]

Security forces take strict security measures following two consecutive explosions that occurred near the Ministry of Tourism building, injuring 18 people including four security personnel, in Damascus, Syria on July 7, 2026. [Hişam Hac Ömer – Anadolu Agency]

Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khattab said Thursday that authorities have arrested a cell responsible for “terrorist bombings” that struck Damascus two days ago, Anadolu reports.

“The cell responsible for the terrorist bombings that targeted Damascus two days ago is now in our custody,” Khattab said in a statement carried by the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

He added that authorities will disclose “the identities of the cell members, their roles, and all of their affiliations” once investigations are completed.

Khattab did not provide further details about the suspects or the circumstances of their arrest.

MEPs support Ukraine and Moldova’s EU path while warning Serbia over reform gaps

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MEPs support Ukraine and Moldova’s EU path while warning Serbia over reform gaps


The European Parliament has reaffirmed its support for the European Union accession ambitions of Ukraine and Moldova, while warning that Serbia’s membership process remains hindered by shortcomings in democratic reforms, the rule of law and foreign policy alignment.

In three separate reports adopted on Wednesday, MEPs assessed each country’s progress towards EU membership and outlined the priorities they believe should guide the next stages of the enlargement process.

Ukraine: Continued reforms and long-term support

Parliament welcomed the opening of the first “fundamentals” cluster of Ukraine’s accession negotiations in June 2026 and expressed hope that additional negotiating clusters would be opened in the near future.

The report, adopted by 460 votes in favour, 136 against and 59 abstentions, called for a constructive approach to advancing Ukraine’s European integration while taking into account the EU’s strategic interests and the broader security of Europe.

MEPs commended Ukraine’s efforts to strengthen democratic institutions, uphold the separation of powers during wartime and advance judicial reforms and anti-corruption measures. They also stressed that continued progress in these areas would be essential for reconstruction, transparency and investor confidence.

The Parliament said future elections should only take place once martial law has been lifted and conditions exist to ensure free and fair voting. MEPs also rejected calls for elections while Russia’s war against Ukraine continues.

The report welcomed the first €3.2 billion disbursement under the Ukraine Support Loan and called for predictable multiannual EU financial assistance to help finance Ukraine’s defence and recovery.

MEPs also urged greater pressure on Russia’s wartime economy and supported continued international backing for Ukraine following the G7 leaders’ June 2026 statement.

On relations with Poland, Parliament expressed regret over Ukraine’s decision to rename an elite military unit after figures associated with the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), saying the move had affected neighbourly relations and calling for renewed reconciliation efforts.

Serbia: Reform implementation remains key obstacle

The Parliament said Serbia continues to describe EU membership as a strategic objective but warned that this commitment is not consistently reflected in government actions.

The report, approved by 468 votes in favour, 116 against and 79 abstentions, said there remains a persistent gap between Serbia’s adoption of EU-related legislation and its implementation, slowing progress towards accession.

MEPs said accession negotiations should only advance when Serbia demonstrates measurable and lasting improvements in areas including the rule of law, judicial independence, democratic institutions, media freedom, electoral standards, and the fight against corruption and organised crime.

They also called on the European Commission to reflect any significant setbacks in reforms when allocating pre-accession financial assistance.

Parliament reiterated that normalising relations with Kosovo remains a condition for support under the EU’s Reform and Growth Plan.

The report also expressed concern over Serbia’s close ties with Russia and its expanding security and defence cooperation with China, stressing that full alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, including sanctions against Russia, remains a requirement for membership.

MEPs further pointed to low public support for EU membership, which they said has been influenced by longstanding anti-EU narratives in parts of the media and political leadership. Against the backdrop of ongoing protests since late 2024, Parliament said genuinely free and fair elections would provide the best way to address the country’s political crisis.

Moldova: Progress despite external pressure

Parliament also endorsed Moldova’s continued progress towards EU membership, praising the country’s reform efforts despite what it described as persistent Russian interference.

The report, adopted by 505 votes in favour, 115 against and 45 abstentions, welcomed the opening of accession negotiations on the “fundamentals” cluster and urged EU member states to open additional negotiating chapters without unnecessary delay, in line with the merit-based enlargement process.

MEPs noted the European Commission’s assessment that Moldova has made good progress in justice reform and anti-corruption efforts while highlighting the need to continue addressing the influence of oligarchs in politics, business and the media.

The report warned of ongoing Russian attempts to interfere in Moldova’s democratic processes and called on the EU to strengthen support for the country’s institutional resilience, cybersecurity, strategic communications and independent media.

Parliament also welcomed Moldova’s deeper economic integration with the EU single market and its efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy.

On the Transnistria region, MEPs reiterated their support for Moldova’s territorial integrity and called on Russia to withdraw its military personnel, equipment and ammunition from the territory.

The Strait That Broke the Deal: Gulf Attacks Expose Limits of US-Iran Truce

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The Strait That Broke the Deal: Gulf Attacks Expose Limits of US-Iran Truce


Renewed strikes, restored oil sanctions, and Iranian attacks on US partners have turned a temporary diplomatic framework into a fight over who controls the Strait of Hormuz 

Sirens in Jordan, renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and a blunt declaration from President Donald Trump have turned a temporary US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) into a battlefield dispute over who controls the region’s most sensitive waterway. 

Asked during the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, whether the ceasefire was over and whether the MOU was dead, President Trump left little room for diplomatic polish. “It’s a very interesting question. To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore,” the US president said, according to a direct transcript of his remarks. He called Iran’s leaders “sick people” and “vicious, violent people,” warned that “if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it,” and concluded: “As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.” 

The statement came after Washington moved to reimpose oil sanctions on Iran and launched new strikes on Iranian military targets following attacks on commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press reported that the US struck about 90 targets across Iran, including air-defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure. Iran’s Health Ministry said 14 people were killed and 78 wounded in the American strikes. 

Iran responded by claiming attacks on US-linked military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan. Petra, Jordan’s state news agency, citing a military source at the General Command of the Jordan Armed Forces-Arab Army, said Jordanian air defenses intercepted eight missiles launched from Iran toward Jordanian territory. The source said missile debris fell in several areas, but no casualties or property damage were reported. Kuwait also reported intercepting missiles and drones. 

For Prof. Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US-Israel relations at Reichman University and Bar-Ilan University, President Trump’s words did not necessarily mean the MOU had formally disappeared. They did, however, expose what he called its basic weakness. 

“Turns out that the two sides are interpreting certain clauses very differently,” Gilboa told The Media Line. The central dispute, he said, is Hormuz. President Trump believed Iran had committed to free passage through the strait, including no tolls or restrictions. Iran, according to Gilboa, reads the same issue in almost opposite terms. 

The whole issue of Hormuz is a matter of control—who controls the straits—and it turns out that the MOU failed to solve that problem

“The whole issue of Hormuz is a matter of control—who controls the straits—and it turns out that the MOU failed to solve that problem,” Gilboa said. In his view, Iran’s interference with passage through the waterway amounted to a violation of the ceasefire framework, forcing the US to respond with strikes on military infrastructure linked to Iran’s control of the strait. 

Washington had already moved economically before the latest exchange of fire. After the attacks on commercial shipping in or near the Strait of Hormuz, the US administration revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil under the temporary ceasefire framework. A US official told Reuters that Washington would continue negotiating “in good faith” but said Iran’s conduct in Hormuz was “completely unacceptable” and would carry consequences. 

Iran rejected that framing. Its Foreign Ministry said Tehran was carefully observing its commitments under the memorandum regarding Hormuz and called on regional states to avoid steps that contradicted the agreement. Qatar and Saudi Arabia, however, said tankers linked to them had been attacked in or near the strait, and Qatar summoned Iran’s deputy ambassador. 

The dispute became more explicit when Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, said the strait would not be opened on American terms. “The Strait of Hormuz will open only through Iranian arrangements, not American threats,” he said, according to Israeli reports. 

Beni Sabti, an Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, said the Iranian moves in the Strait of Hormuz were not sudden. Tehran, he said, had been signaling for weeks that it would not accept commercial shipping shifting toward routes near Oman in a way that undermined its claim of control. 

From their perspective, they are now the owners of the Strait of Hormuz

“They said all the time: if there is another route, if the ships pass near Oman or somewhere else, we will not allow it,” Sabti told The Media Line. “From their perspective, they are now the owners of the Strait of Hormuz.” The attacks, he said, followed the warnings Iran had already made in its own media, even if others did not take them seriously enough. 

Sabti argued that President Trump appears frustrated by Iran’s threats and its effort to act as “masters of the region.” But he warned that limited US strikes may not shift the regime’s calculations if they do not hit the center of power or the launch systems used against American partners. 

A limited confrontation, Sabti said, could even serve the regime. “A dictatorial regime always likes a little emergency, a little small war,” he said. At home, he argued, Iran can tell the public that the economy cannot recover because the country remains under attack. Inside the security establishment, it strengthens the generals. Externally, he said, Iran can continue playing the unpredictable actor without necessarily triggering a war aimed at the regime’s demise. 

A dictatorial regime always likes a little emergency, a little small war

That is why Sabti views the sanctions issue as more important than some of the strikes. “The fact that he [President Trump] is restoring the sanctions that stop Iranian oil exports, that really hurts them,” he said. “That is more important than these attacks.” 

Gilboa also sees sanctions and Hormuz as the two practical levers now available to Washington. President Trump, he said, is in “a strategic trap” after a framework that gave Iran economic relief without producing the kind of nuclear or regional concessions Washington wanted. 

Commenting on possible options for President Trump, Gilboa said: “I think his most likely response would be to close the Straits of Hormuz and to reimpose the financial sanctions,” adding that these are the two things that the MOU ostensibly removed. He said the US could combine economic pressure with military activity below the threshold of a full-scale war, though he cautioned that none of the options facing President Trump are particularly good. 

The Israeli angle is more complicated than simply welcoming the MOU’s breakdown. Gilboa said the US and Israel agree on broad goals: Iran should not obtain nuclear weapons, Hezbollah should disarm, and Hamas should disarm before Gaza reconstruction moves forward. The disagreement is over methods. Israel, he said, was skeptical that the MOU could deliver the dismantling or suspension of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Gilboa, should now argue in Washington that Israel warned the arrangement would fail. “You negotiated the MOU. You thought this would be a good way to end the war. And we said it would not,” Gilboa said, describing the argument he believes Israel should make. “So maybe we have to achieve a strategic dialogue of the kind that exists in the military area.” Military coordination between the US and Israel remains excellent, he said, but the diplomatic channel has been weaker because of policy disagreements. 

Lebanon is part of that dispute. Israeli operations against Hezbollah have continued outside the US-Iran ceasefire framework, and Gilboa said linking Iran and Lebanon inside the MOU was a mistake because it strengthened Hezbollah’s standing. He argued that Iran must be “dislodged from Lebanon” if the Lebanese government is to regain authority. 

Gilboa said the crisis also exposed competing instincts inside President Trump’s foreign policy team. The MOU, he said, was handled by Vice President JD Vance, whom he described as aligned with the more isolationist wing of the Republican Party, while the separate Israel-Lebanon track was being advanced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “It’s interesting to see who in the White House is sponsoring what,” Gilboa said. 

That split, he argued, could shape the domestic Republican debate before 2028 if the Iran framework collapses. “I think Vance failed to negotiate a good deal. It was not a good deal,” Gilboa said, adding that it would be “very easy to stick failure with Iran to him” if he becomes the Republican nominee. Israel, he said, is watching that internal debate closely, not only because of Iran, but because Rubio’s Lebanon track is seen in Jerusalem as more aligned with Israeli security priorities. 

I think Vance failed to negotiate a good deal. It was not a good deal.

Israel’s own posture may also explain why Iran has so far avoided direct fire at Israel during the latest exchanges. Gilboa described it as both restraint and strategic discipline. “I think there is some kind of an Israeli deterrence against Iran,” he said. Gulf states are more vulnerable than Israel because they do not have the same anti-ballistic missile systems, he added. If Iran were to attack Israel directly, he said, Israel would likely use the opportunity to strike both Iran and Hezbollah. 

Sabti made a similar point in blunter terms. Iran, he said, knows Israel is looking for an opportunity to hit harder if dragged back into the conflict directly. “They are not firing at Israel because they know Israel wants to use this to finish the regime,” he said. “They know we are crazy, and we are dying for an opportunity.” 

They are not firing at Israel because they know Israel wants to use this to finish the regime

For now, the conflict is being fought through a narrow but dangerous pattern: US strikes inside Iran, Iranian fire toward American positions and partners, restored oil sanctions, and renewed pressure on shipping through Hormuz. Iranian officials later said a US projectile struck the area around the Bushehr nuclear plant; the claim could not immediately be independently verified. 

The MOU still exists as a document, and US officials continue to leave room for negotiations. But the working reality has changed. Its two most tangible benefits for Iran—oil sanctions relief and easier passage through Hormuz—are now either reversed or contested. Its most important promise for Washington, a controlled pause that could lead toward a final deal, is being tested by missiles flying toward US partners and by President Trump’s own public judgment that, for him, the arrangement is over. 

 

 

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