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Dmitriev is also the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund. He was in town heading the Russian delegation attending an event hosted by First Lady Melania Trump acknowledging a six-day local ceasefire around the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky.
Dmitriev’s attendance was a cover for ongoing high-level negotiations involving Trump, Putin, and in part Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It is also possible, though not directly acknowledged, that some European leaders are also engaged in the talks, though which ones aren’t clear.
The October 27 phone call between Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store with Russia’s Putin suggests these events may be linked.
Trump offered a very positive readout on his meeting with Dmitriev. He told reporters that “I can’t tell you what I discussed. But I’m just telling you, it’s going to be an agreement, it’s going to be a big agreement.”
Trump went on to say, “It’s going to involve more than Ukraine, and I could even say it might involve all of Europe,” he added, promising a “big, beautiful agreement, and everyone is going to be thrilled.”
Abu Dhabi peace try
Negotiations are set to begin in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, but it is unclear how these talks align with the alleged “big, beautiful agreement” Trump is talking about. Russia is sending presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, and senior general staff officials Igor Kostyukov and Yuri Zhigarlovsky to Abu Dhabi.
The primary US delegates mediating the trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia and the United States in Abu Dhabi are Steve Witkoff, US Special Presidential Envoy leading the diplomatic mediation efforts, and Jared Kushner, the US Special Presidential Envoy participating in the talks and developing the proposed post-war European security framework.
No top Pentagon civilian or military leaders are in the talks, but reports say US negotiators and defense officials have been consulting directly with NATO, US European Command (EUCOM) and Allied defense leaders in Brussels.
Kushner recently outlined five-point security principles for Europe aimed at reducing the risk of future conflict. Critical to Kushner’s outline is that Russia is a partner with NATO countries. Kushner’s five points include:
- Permanent Security Consultations: establishing continuous dialogue channels between European nations, NATO, the EU, and regional powers;
- Reliable Crisis Communications: institutionalizing direct communication lines to prevent accidental escalation or misunderstandings during military incidents;
- Greater Military Transparency: increasing visibility into troop movements, exercises, and deployments across the continent;
- Reciprocal Escalation-Reduction Measures: implementing mutual agreements to lower force postures and minimize provocative operational steps;
- Lasting Stability Framework: Constructing a durable, multilateral architecture for post-war continental security.
Making the talks in Abu Dhabi more intriguing, Yuri Ushakov, chief foreign policy adviser to Putin, has made it clear he is managing the Russian delegation, although he will not be a delegate at the talks.
The Ukrainian delegation included Zelensky’s chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov and national security adviser Rustem Umerov. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot confirmed that European delegations will join the US-mediated negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
Murky proposals
The White House has offered no readout on any proposals Dmitriev brought to Washington. No other American source has reported on them so far. Nor have the Russians made any comment about Dmitriev’s visit.
The singular source available so far is a Ukrainian news service, the Euromaidan Press. Euromaidan claims to be an independent news outlet, but because it operates in Ukraine, where press censorship is strict, it is reasonable to believe it is an officially sanctioned news source.
It reports that the Kremlin has conveyed to the US a proposal for a two-stage ceasefire which includes an energy truce until the New Year and preparations for a full-fledged peace agreement by spring 2027.
The Russian proposal comes with conditions. An energy truce is possible on the condition of halting Ukrainian strikes on Russian “civilian infrastructure,” primarily oil and gas facilities. Russia will also potentially agree to a territorial compromise that would preserve Ukrainian control over the unoccupied part of Donbas.
In exchange, Russia demands a reduction in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and limitations on armaments, coupled with concessions regarding the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church inside Ukraine. The Russians also propose withdrawing NATO infrastructure from the Baltic States and Scandinavia.
Dmitriev suggested that Russia may agree to the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine, exclusively in the western regions of the country, provided that Russia’s demands are met.
It is difficult to be sure the Euromaidan report’s description matches what Dmitriev proposed. What stands out as entirely new is that, according to the Euromaidan report’s version, Russia would agree to a territorial arrangement in which it would accept Ukraine’s control of parts of Donbas.
In general, Ukraine still holds around 20% of Donbas, an area considered the Donbas Fortress Belt. In the center, this includes Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Konstantnivka and Druzhkivka. In the northern sector, it includes Dobopillia, Lyman and Pokrovsk.
These areas are important road and railway transit zones, which Ukraine has been able to reinforce, making it difficult for Russia to advance on these strongholds. In fact, the Ukrainians have reversed some Russian army advances.
It isn’t clear how the legal status of Donbas would be worked out if the alleged compromise was accepted. Officially, Russia has already annexed all of Donbas.
The Euromaidan report does not discuss buffer zones, nor does it discuss an international force or other arrangement to prevent the conflict from restarting. Ukraine and Russia both want security guarantees, but they have not worked out what a security system would look like.
It is, however, clear that Russia won’t allow NATO or NATO states to be present in and around the main conflict zones.
False progress claims?
If, in fact, the territorial compromise proposal is now on the table, it would represent a serious reversal by Putin and a rejection of the arguments made by the Russian army. For the last few months, many Russian military bloggers have complained that the Russian army has been making false claims about progress in the war.
Added to that, continued reports of heavy casualties and damage to Russia’s economy, as well as acknowledged successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and storage depots, suggest that Putin no longer trusts the Russian army’s explanations or believes that Russia can win a ground war in Donbas.
But there are problems with realizing any compromise solution. One of them is Zelensky.
Notably, Zelensky and his team oppose a “Yalta 2.” The Yalta meeting in February 1945 brought US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet General Secretary Joseph Stalin together to plan the final defeat of Nazi Germany and the postwar reorganization of Europe, which they completed at Potsdam the following summer.
Zelensky fears being the odd man out, with the “great powers” deciding Ukraine’s fate.
The warning about Yalta 2 came in the wake of Dmitriev’s meeting with Trump, in an interview Zelensky gave to CNN’s Jake Tapper. It was also punctuated by more Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure.
Zelensky thinks that Trump’s defeat at the polls gives him considerably more power now that the Democrats control the US House and Senate. He will likely try to drag out talks, strengthen ties with his sponsors in Europe and put pressure on Trump and his colleagues.
But Zelensky faces an uphill battle with shrinking resources to continue the fight. The Germans just told him they would not send any of their Patriot interceptors to Ukraine. The French economy is tanking, and riots continue in Paris and around the country.
American Patriot missiles won’t show up until 2030 at the earliest. And no one can be sure whether Europe is still the powerhouse Zelensky needs to continue the war.
Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy undersecretary of defense and special correspondent at Asia Times. This article was first published on his Weapons and Strategy Substack and is republished with permission.
Source: Iwpost.com
