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Has the Left Really Met Its Limit? 

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Has the Left Really Met Its Limit? 


The stunning momentum of the insurgent left hit a roadblock this week when democratic socialist Francesca Hong narrowly lost her primary race for Wisconsin governor to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a moderate who garnered significant support from establishment Democrats.  

“The collective power of that Democratic establishment in a state, where there is a Democratic governor and there is a real Democratic Party establishment machine, all of that power was required to eke out a 0.4 percent victory in the party’s own primary against a previously unknown candidate running as a Democratic socialist,” The Lever’s David Sirota tells The Intercept Briefing. 

This week on the podcast, host Jessica Washington speaks with Sirota, founder and editor-in-chief of The Lever, about the primaries and how the left is building power within the Democratic Party. 

There were bright spots for progressives on Tuesday night. In Minnesota, progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated AIPAC-backed Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., in the Senate primary race. Craig had previously voted for the Laken Riley Act, which requires the federal government to detain people for certain crimes, including shoplifting and burglary. Flanagan, by contrast, told supporters on election night: “We need to rip ICE apart and stop them from terrorizing our communities.”  

“What you’re seeing now is, and I don’t want to call it a Democratic Tea Party, but it is certainly organizing and pressuring to take back power in an adversarial way from a set of forces to the left of the Democratic establishment,” says Sirota. “That is what’s new, and that is what’s driving the political dynamic now.” 

Washington and Sirota also discuss the intensifying democracy crisis unfolding in the United States. According to Sirota, it “stands on two pillars: concentrated executive power and the supremacy of money.”

Sirota explores this theme and more, in the new season of his show, Master Plan: The Kingmakers. The podcast is all about how a once-fringe legal theory moved into the mainstream and transformed the power of the American presidency. 

For more, listen to the full conversation of The Intercept Briefing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you listen.

Transcript

Jessica Washington: Welcome to The Intercept Briefing, I’m Jessica Washington, politics reporter at The Intercept. 

On Tuesday night, democratic socialist Francesca Hong narrowly lost her primary race for Wisconsin Governor to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.

Hong lost by less than a percentage point. But her defeat was a blow to the anti-data center movement, which she had championed throughout her campaign, even as her detractors tried to make the race about her opinions on Thanksgiving and other major holidays. 

But the night was not a total loss for progressives. In Minnesota, Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated AIPAC-backed Congresswoman Angie Craig for Senate. 

Peggy Flanagan: And now let’s talk about Donald Trump’s out of control ICE force [crowd boos]. We need to rip ICE apart and stop them from terrorizing our communities. 

JW: Last year, Craig voted in favor of the Laken Riley Act, which requires the federal government to detain people for a host of crimes, including nonviolent ones like shoplifting, and it allows states to sue over immigration enforcement, giving power to state attorneys general to shape immigration enforcement policy regardless of which party holds the White House. That vote appears to have cost her in a state that largely rose up in defiance of the Trump administration’s brutal immigration crackdown, after federal immigration agents shot and killed two U.S. citizens. 

For more of our reporting on the primaries and the anti-data center movement, visit TheIntercept.com.  

This week on The Intercept Briefing, I speak to David Sirota, founder and editor-in-chief of The Lever, about the primaries and how the left is building power within the Democratic Party. 

David also talks about the parallels between how the left and the right have consolidated power, and we get into the second season of his amazing series Master Plan, resuming this week. 

This new season is called The Kingmakers and is all about how a once-fringe legal theory moved into the mainstream and transformed the power of the American presidency. 

It traces the people and institutions behind that campaign — from Richard Nixon’s downfall and Dick Cheney’s post-9/11 power grab to pivotal Supreme Court decisions and Project 2025.

David, welcome back to The Intercept Briefing.

David Sirota: Thank you. Thanks for having me. 

JW: So Tuesday night, Francesca Hong narrowly lost her primary race for Wisconsin governor to the more moderate candidate, David Crowley. But it wasn’t a total loss for the left. In Minnesota, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated AIPAC-backed Angie Craig. Hong’s race was plagued by, honestly, the dumbest issues, like whether she supports Thanksgiving or how she views her “proximity to whiteness.”

David, what did you make of Tuesday night’s results? Does this, as The New York Times called it, show the “limits of the left,” or is something else at play here?

DS: I think this is a good test of the power dynamic in American politics right now, specifically inside the Democratic Party. I’m going to state a few empirical facts about what happened. People can use these facts to try to confirm their priors. But here are the facts that we know. Fact one is that the entire establishment of the Democratic Party came together towards the end of this race, really consolidated to try to shut down Francesca Hong’s campaign and defeat her.

“All of the power of the old Democratic machine was required to eke out the narrowest of victories against the longest of long-shot candidates.”

The collective power of that Democratic establishment in a state, where there is a Democratic governor and there is a real Democratic Party establishment machine, all of that power was required to eke out a 0.4 percent victory in the party’s own primary against a previously unknown candidate running as a Democratic socialist who was wildly under-resourced, did not air any television advertisements through her own campaign. So the point being that all of the power of the old Democratic machine was required to eke out the narrowest of victories against the longest of long-shot candidates. 

A candidate who, by the way, had been effectively abandoned by other national left-of-center icons and politicians, democratic socialists. Bernie Sanders did not endorse Francesca Hong. AOC did not endorse Francesca Hong. The candidates who have been winning as democratic socialists did not come to Wisconsin to campaign with Francesca Hong. We can discuss why that is and the mistakes or stumbles that Hong made as a candidate. But the point is that the machine with all of the power and advantages it had against a candidate with no advantages at all, that ran to say the least, an imperfect campaign, still needed all of its power to barely win a race in Wisconsin. 

So to me, what that says is that the Democratic establishment that has gotten very used to being able to easily control primary outcomes is now having to marshal all of its collective power and have everything break right for it in order to eke out these primary wins. That, I think, is a fundamental difference of the political topography of the Democratic Party.

JW: I’m thinking about the fact that we didn’t see Bernie Sanders supporting her. Obviously, AOC had come out and said that it was because she wanted to focus on Congress. So we can have that conversation.

But we also didn’t see that support for Cori Bush either. And she lost.

Do you think that progressives are making a smart play here by trying to decide who’s more electable in a general election? Or, is that just more of the same silly stuff we’ve seen from the Democratic Party in terms of electability and making those decisions before voters do?

DS: Yeah, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. My take on so-called electability is that nobody really knows who is electable or not electable. I’m old enough to remember when the same media machine and Democratic Party apparatus insisted with certainty that Barack Obama could never possibly win a general election. I remember when that same machine laughed at the idea that Donald Trump could be elected president. 

I tend to believe that this whole discussion about electability is silly, but also a Jedi mind trick that the establishment of the Democratic Party uses to try to manipulate voters into not voting for candidates and not seeing elections as forums for voting for good policies.

They’re trying to turn primaries into — and they’ve been successful at it in the past — trying to turn primaries into this idea that, “Don’t vote for the candidate who may be offering you policies that you actually support. Vote for our view of who is actually ‘electable’ in a general election. Forget the fact that we told you that Barack Obama wasn’t electable or Donald Trump wasn’t electable. Forget all that.” So my basic take is that the whole electability discussion is this moving target and a real sort of engine of manipulation. 

I think that in every race, candidates are looked at for their viability, for how well they are running, and their basic competence as a candidate. It’s not wrong for folks and political organizations and activists on the left or really any political faction to try to evaluate the competence of candidates that they are going to spend resources on or organize for or endorse. That’s part of the political process in America, and that’s not a perfect process. But sometimes you can make mistakes. That happens all the time. 

Did Francesca Hong not get endorsements because she was evaluated to be a less competent candidate? Same thing for Cori Bush. Were those candidates seen as not competent? Competent meaning as candidates, not as people, as candidates running a campaign. Were they seen as not competent versus was Abdul El-Sayed seen as a highly competent candidate?

My guess is that those calculations were at play here. I’ve worked on a lot of campaigns in my life at this point. A candidate’s competency is this intangible that’s really important.

So my guess is though all of those questions were on the table in the way that these decisions were made to endorse certain candidates and not go all in for other candidates.

JW: That makes a lot of sense. We’re also talking about having to run these candidates against the right, against the massive money machine that the right has.

So I want to talk a little bit more about Republicans and their power. Recently on your podcast, Lever Time, you spoke to Reed Galen, co-founder of the anti-Trump political action committee, The Lincoln Project. Galen talked about leaving the Republican Party and his warning that Democrats are making the same mistakes Republicans made, mapping the transition of the GOP to the Tea Party movement takeover.

Can you talk about that conversation and what Galen sees as the kind of dangerous mistakes the Democratic Party is making, and what’s your view?

DS: Yeah, I agree with his story of history, which is that to understand the current Republican Party, you have to really rewind history and look at what created it. You can go all the way back to Barry Goldwater and tell the story from there. 

But in modern times, what you can see is that in 2008, Barack Obama won the presidency. A lot of the center-left foment gets driven into the Democratic Party and into Obama as a personality, and a lot of the center-right and hard-right unhappiness with our political system was driven first into the Tea Party, which ultimately became MAGA, which ultimately became the Trump presidency.

The Tea Party was operating outside of the Republican Party, although in conjunction with it, to transform that party. Ultimately, Donald Trump’s presidency, first the MAGA movement and then Trump’s presidency, becomes the culmination of all of that foment outside of the party.

Obviously the party has been transformed. It is a much different party than it was even 10, 15 years ago. I think a similar dynamic is happening right now vis-a-vis the Democratic Party and the American left. Obviously on totally different issues. They don’t share ideologies, they don’t share policy agendas. 

But politically speaking, just the raw politics of it, I think this is delayed, I think it’s been belated. Whereas in 2008, there was a moment in the middle of the financial crisis where center-left discontent could have been channeled into something like a center-left Tea Party. I reported on this for a long time.

There was Occupy Wall Street and the like. But certainly it wasn’t as big a movement as the Tea Party on the right because a lot of that energy was, again, channeled into Obama and the Obama presidency. We’re now here 18 years later, many of the grievances of that moment back in 2008 in the middle of the financial crisis, really the supercharging of oligarchy, they’re still here.

But the difference is here — in the here and now — if you look at polls of people on the left, center-left, before in 2008 they were fairly confident in Democratic leaders to channel their grievances. Today, they have lost faith in the Democratic leadership. They are angry at the Democratic Party for what they perceive to be capitulations and unnecessary compromises with corporate power and with Trump and MAGA.

“What you’re seeing now is … certainly organizing and pressuring to take back power in an adversarial way from a set of forces to the left of the Democratic establishment.”

What you’re seeing now is, and I don’t want to call it a Democratic Tea Party, but it is certainly organizing and pressuring to take back power in an adversarial way from a set of forces to the left of the Democratic establishment. That is something I think we have not really experienced in our lifetimes. That is what’s new, and that is what’s driving the political dynamic now. 

Whether it’s in any of these races happening across the country or in Congress itself, which I expect the next session of Congress, if Democrats take it back, to be a lot of push and pull inside the Democratic caucus, which of course will overlay the 2028 presidential campaign. 

I very much expect candidates in the Democratic primary to be competing for that positioning. You might want to call it the Bernie Sanders lane, but it’s really the lane to say, “I am the outsider that is going to take back the White House for a particular faction,” or representing a particular faction of the Democratic Party. A faction that is most certainly not the corporate old-school establishment that has been running the party into the ground for the last 30 years.

I see the whole push and pull right now as something very healthy. I don’t think it is healthy for democracy, for an establishment of one of the major parties in this country to have clung onto power for so long, offering so little change through so many electoral defeats and through the rise of Donald Trump and authoritarianism. 

For that establishment to still be able to hold on to power without much change at all really is the democracy crisis in practice. So the effort to change that party through democratic means, is entirely long overdue, is entirely necessary. People listening to this may agree or disagree with specific different parts of the policy platform being pushed by those outside the establishment, but the process itself is the democracy working.

“The democracy crisis is a set of elite power brokers being able to cling on to a political party’s power regardless of what is happening in the world and in a way that sells out voters.”

A lot of liberals think about the democracy crisis. The democracy crisis is a set of elite power brokers being able to cling on to a political party’s power regardless of what is happening in the world and in a way that sells out voters. That’s what’s been going on in the Democratic Party for a long time, and the effort to significantly change it and revitalize the party through democratic means is a healthy expression of democracy.

[Break]

JW: We have multiple crises of democracy happening. We obviously have Trump, but we also have the establishment [Democrats] and the fact that they’ve allowed Republicans to gain control of the government from the House to the Senate to presidency, and I would argue, also the Supreme Court. 

Last week, the president’s personal attorney, Todd Blanche, was confirmed as attorney general with, to me, what seems like a clear mandate to target the president’s enemies. Then on Tuesday, it was reported that the DOJ issued a sweeping memo giving broad authority to the president to conceal his communications with so-called private advisers in what seems like just a clear effort to undercut Democrats’ ability to investigate the president if they retake Congress. That doesn’t even touch on the fact that we’re over 100 days into war with Iran without congressional approval. 

I want to talk about how we got here, and you explore that in the new season of your show, Master Plan: Kingmakers, which is out this week, by the way. It tracks how a once fringe legal theory has transformed the American presidency into a pseudo-monarchy with term limits.

I listened to the first episode and loved it, by the way. It also feels incredibly relevant right now. David, how did we get here?

“We’ve turned elections into auctions. We’ve equated money with free speech, we’ve equated corporations with people, giving them human rights.”

DS: To my mind, it is the second part of a two-part story to understand the real democracy crisis. The democracy crisis I think, stands on two pillars: concentrated executive power and the supremacy of money.

They’re obviously interrelated. Season one of Master Plan traces the secret 50-year plot to effectively legalize corruption, deregulate the campaign finance system and make bribery essentially a permissible act in the United States. We all understand, implicitly, that we’re now living in that reality when we’ve turned elections into auctions. We’ve equated money with free speech, we’ve equated corporations with people, giving them human rights.

So we are living through that project of the American right to effectively legalize corruption, to turn the democracy from a “one person, one vote” democracy into a “one dollar, one vote” oligarchy. I think we all see the evidence of that. That came about through, among other things, the infamous Powell Memo.

That’s the sort of origin story where a lot of it started, which was a call to arms for corporations in the early 1970s when corporations and oligarchs felt under attack from the New Deal policies of the mid-20th century. The Powell Memo was a call to essentially make monetary investments in buying democracy.

The democracy was functioning too well. It was becoming too responsive to what people actually wanted, and the idea was we have to legalize corruption to be able to rig the system so that we can buy outcomes, we the oligarchy. So that was season one of Master Plan. 

The other pillar of the democracy crisis is then to concentrate as much power in the executive branch in the hands of really one person so that the small-D democratic institutions of government have much less power, so that power is less diffuse. It’s all in the hands of one person, because if that’s your guy — you the oligarchy — then you’ve essentially ended democracy. This story starts in Watergate. Watergate was the moment that was seen as a so-called imperial presidency, a presidency that had gotten out of control and stepped over the boundaries and thresholds that had been established for the executive branch.

Congress passes a series of laws that are designed to take power away from the executive branch. So the story really starts there at a kind of small-D democratic moment of triumph, but it also hatches a backlash, and that’s what the new season of Master Plan is about, The Kingmakers.

It hatches a backlash among conservatives starting in the Ford administration with Dick Cheney, who was chief of staff to make legal arguments and start creating legal doctrines that are designed to grab back the power that was taken in the post-Watergate era, put it back in the White House, and then significantly expand it.

“The original Project 2025 was The Heritage Foundation’s Mandate for Leadership, a policy bible whose through line was how to use executive authority.”

That’s what happens soon after Ronald Reagan gets elected president. We all have heard of Project 2025. Back in the late 1970s into 1980, the original Project 2025 was The Heritage Foundation’s Mandate for Leadership, a policy bible whose through line was how to use executive authority to do what the conservative movement wanted regardless of what Congress or any other institution wanted, and how to grab as much of that power as possible under a new legal rubric called the unitary executive theory.

I’m guessing some people have heard that. This is cooked up inside of the Reagan Justice Department in its battles with a Democratic Congress. A legal doctrine that is then tested in the courts in strategic ways to try to get it enshrined into the law.

From the Reagan era into obviously the Bush era, the Bush’s war on terror, Dick Cheney, the guy who had been spearheading parts of this when he was in the Ford administration and when he was in Congress, the Bush administration sees a huge consolidation of power under the veneer of the so-called war on terror. 

“All of these powers, from the unitary executive theories that were forged in the Reagan administration to the drone war national security powers that were fortified by Obama after the Bush era, all of this is now resting in the Trump White House.”

Then in probably our most controversial episode of this season, we go into how the Obama administration ended up consolidating power in truly unprecedented ways. The Obama administration didn’t champion the unitary executive theory, but it did make a set of precedential legal arguments about the executive branch’s alleged power to execute and target for assassination American citizens without charging them even with a crime.

I’m talking about the drone war here. Some may say that the drone war was necessary, others may say it wasn’t, but the legal architecture and the outlining of the powers asserted by the executive branch were unprecedented and were effectively validated during the Obama presidency. Powers that are now, fast-forward to today, all of these powers, from the unitary executive theories that were forged in the Reagan administration to the drone war national security powers that were fortified by Obama after the Bush era, all of this is now resting in the Trump White House.

So the point of this is that what we’re living through today didn’t just happen because Donald Trump showed up to the White House. Donald Trump, when he got to the White House, had a series of levers, if you will, an entire control panel of executive powers, unprecedented executive powers, that were created for him.

So when we see him use those powers, it’s not to say we shouldn’t be terrified by it or outraged by it, but it is to say, let’s understand where those powers came from, because they didn’t just happen. They weren’t just seized randomly, and they weren’t just created by Donald Trump himself.

JW: As you just mentioned, efforts to bring the unitary executive theory to reality have been decades in the making. We saw President George W. Bush’s administration push in that direction, and now it’s reached just a whole other level under Trump. First, just to make it clear, can you briefly explain just how powerful is the American presidency under Trump, and what is the unitary executive theory?

DS: The unitary executive theory is this idea that the president singularly is the controller, the master, the decider of every single thing that the executive branch does. The executive branch, that’s one term for it. Another term for the executive branch is the federal government, right?

At one level they are one and the same, but I bring that up so that people can understand how radical the unitary executive theory actually is. When I use the federal government, maybe you’re thinking of the military. Maybe you’re thinking of the Agriculture Department, the scientists working on food safety in the Agriculture Department. 

We’re talking about everything, the sort of basic functions, the on-the-ground functions of the government. Technically all of those agencies are operating in what we understand in terms of separation of powers. We understand them to be the executive branch. There’s Congress that makes the laws. There’s the president that executes the laws. There’s the courts that adjudicate battles between Congress and the president, adjudicate what the law is actually saying, et cetera, et cetera. 

The unitary executive theory is saying that the president as the head of the executive branch has complete and total power to effectively do whatever the president wants inside of the executive branch. 

So the unitary executive theory undergirds something like DOGE, the rampage that we all experienced right when Donald Trump came into his second term. He said, for instance, I’m shutting off all previously approved congressional grants across the entire United States. I’m asserting my executive authority to do that. 

Now, Congress had passed laws saying that the money must be spent, but Trump and his administration were essentially arguing the president makes the decision on whether to execute those laws. So I give that example as a way for people to understand how radical an idea this is.

By the way, this came up recently with independent federal agencies. There are a set of agencies that Congress had set up and that presidents had signed laws, signed them into law in the past, saying that, the FTC or the Securities and Exchange Commission that these agencies are quasi-independent because the commissioners have set terms.

It’s much harder to fire them. Donald Trump went into court saying, I’m the unitary executive. These independent agencies structurally are unconstitutional. I should be allowed to hire and fire whoever I want at any time for any reason. And the Supreme Court largely agreed with him.

So this is about an unprecedented consolidation of power in the hands of one person to say that at any level of the federal government, any granular level, there’s some EPA scientist who is issuing a report about climate change that the president doesn’t like, the theory would hold that the president has a right, regardless of what Congress has passed, regardless of what the courts have adjudicated, the president has the right to reach into the EPA, target that one person, and fire them himself. 

So you can see the dangers of this, because here’s the thing: Part of the way modern civilization has modernized from the old era of medieval royal courts, is that we have professionalized a lot of the functions of government. Like line scientists doing food safety reviews or environmental reviews or making all sorts of technical technical determinations, et cetera, et cetera. We had previously said this is going to be insulated at some level from the political whims of just one all-powerful king, whichever party it is. There’s a civil service, there’s a sort of a professionalized bureaucracy, if you will, and the unitary executive theory is trying to dismantle all of that.

Now, I want to add one thing very quickly here. I do think there’s an argument that, when a bureaucracy, a professionalized government bureaucracy, is so insulated from what voters are voting for, there can be an undemocratic disconnect there. If voters are voting for certain kinds of change and a kind of permanent bureaucratic government, because of job protections and the like over many years, is not responding to what people want, I do think there is a nugget of an argument there that there has to be ways that elections happen and policy changes then flow from those election changes. 

But I think the unitary executive theory is a radical overcorrection for that kind of alleged problem. The solution to that theoretical problem is not to turn the president into an all-powerful king who can wake up at any day or any moment, ignore all of the laws on the books, and do whatever he wants.

JW: It sounds like there’s a lot that’s going to be happening in your podcast, and I’m, for one, really looking forward to listening to the rest of the new season of Master Plan: The Kingmakers. David, where can people listen to it?

DS: They can find it on our website at levernews.com. You can also go on your podcast app and just type in Master Plan. And you can go to our YouTube page. We have video versions of the episodes. That’s youtube.com/@levernews. The URL, the easiest way to find it, masterplanpodcast.com.

JW: David, thank you so much for joining us on The Intercept Briefing.

DS: Thank you. Thanks so much for having me.

JW: We want to hear from you. Tell us what you’re following or want to see more coverage of. Email us at podcasts@theintercept.com or leave us a voicemail at 530-POD-CAST, that’s 530-763-2278

That does it for this episode. 

This episode was produced by Laura Flynn. Ben Muessig is our editor-in-chief. Maia Hibbett is our Managing Editor. 

Fei Liu is our product and design manager. Nara Shin is our copy editor. William Stanton mixed our show. Legal review by David Bralow.

Slip Stream provided our theme music.

This show and our reporting at The Intercept do not exist without you. Your donation, no matter the amount, makes a real difference. Keep our investigations free and fearless at theintercept.com/join

And if you haven’t already, please subscribe to The Intercept Briefing wherever you listen to podcasts. Do leave us a rating or a review, it helps other listeners to find us.

Until next time, I’m Jessica Washington. 

How Trump’s Unprecedented Effort to Prosecute Noncitizen Voters Fell Apart

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How Trump’s Unprecedented Effort to Prosecute Noncitizen Voters Fell Apart

Reporting Highlights

  • Inflated Claims: HSI deployed its tech platform to find noncitizens on voter rolls, despite warnings from agency insiders that it would lead to an “ungodly” number of false positives.
  • Privacy Concerns: DOJ leaders ignored internal concerns that transferring voter lists to HSI for criminal investigation might not be legal.
  • Scant Results: Despite intense White House pressure, the effort has produced only a few dozen noncitizen voter prosecutions nationwide — and even fewer convictions.

These highlights were written by the reporters and editors who worked on this story.

It was late March when Joe Teirab, the second-in-command at Minnesota’s U.S. attorney’s office, received an urgent email from Washington.

The federal government was scrambling to find criminal cases to back up President Donald Trump’s claims that illegal voting by noncitizens was tipping the scales in American elections. Agents from Homeland Security Investigations, a massive federal law enforcement agency, had been dispatched to work leads across the country, including hundreds in Minnesota.

Teirab was already under pressure. In an earlier missive, Nick Davis, a high-ranking Justice Department appointee helping to lead the election fraud crusade, had reminded him the cases were so high priority that Teirab and his staff couldn’t decline to move forward on them without express approval from agency higher-ups. On March 24, Davis demanded a status report — within hours.

Teirab, a former Marine and a Harvard Law graduate who’d run unsuccessfully for Congress as a Republican, responded with a blunt reality check.

“Bottom line up front,” he replied in an email reviewed by ProPublica. After subpoenaing records on about 130 people, only one had been referred for prosecution, his staff had told him. Agents had deluged local election offices with calls and demands for voting histories, demonstrating “a complete lack of understanding” of illegal voting investigations.

“The HSI task force has been disjointed and disorganized,” Teirab wrote. The entire process, he said, had been “dysfunctional.”

Since Trump regained the White House, his administration has launched a series of unprecedented initiatives to find and prosecute voting by noncitizens, which he’s long claimed, without evidence, is rampant.

He’s stepped up this push in recent weeks, saying in a nationally televised speech that the American election system was “so vulnerable that no one can possibly defend it.” To support that assertion, the Department of Homeland Security, HSI’s parent agency, released documents asserting it had found more than 250,000 noncitizens on voter rolls in just four states, all led by Democrats. The documents included no explanation of how that number was calculated.

It’s well known the administration has tasked HSI — a force established to combat drug cartels, terrorism and other cross-border criminal enterprises — with leading the campaign to find election fraud cases in the United States.

But an investigation by ProPublica reveals for the first time how the Trump administration came to harness HSI’s personnel, technology and sweeping legal authority in service of its election agenda — and how meager the results have been, despite the prodigious resources sunk into the effort.

According to interviews and internal emails reviewed by ProPublica, career staffers at the Justice Department warned that transferring voter rolls to HSI to enable it to search for noncitizen voters could violate federal privacy laws. Similarly, longtime HSI insiders cautioned that using the agency’s databases and tools to search these lists would yield mismatches and wildly inflated results.

The administration plowed forward anyway.

HSI’s involvement in the hunt for election fraud traces at least to summer 2025, when agency supervisors embraced a proposal from a midlevel agent who’d publicly echoed Trump’s claims about elections. He argued the agency’s powerful databases and tools could find noncitizens even on the voter lists that states make publicly available, from which the most confidential information has been redacted. Under Trump, the Justice Department had collected many public voter rolls as part of a controversial effort to compel states to turn over the unredacted versions.

Those searches went forward, ProPublica’s reporting shows, helping to generate tens of thousands of leads regarding illegal voting across the country. But when HSI agents were sent to investigate them, the results were similar to what Teirab reported from Minnesota.

Between January 2025 and May 2026, a ProPublica analysis of Justice Department data shows, fewer than 150 alleged noncitizen voters were referred for prosecution. Even fewer — 41 — were charged with voting illegally or other election-related crimes. (More than 150 million people voted in the most recent presidential election.)

In response to questions from ProPublica, administration officials insisted the effort spearheaded by HSI was producing meaningful results.

“President Trump is committed to ensuring that Americans have full confidence in the administration of elections, and that includes totally accurate and up-to-date voter rolls free of errors and unlawfully registered non-citizen voters,” Abigail Jackson, a White House spokesperson, said in response to ProPublica’s request for comment. “Noncitizens voting is a crime. Anyone breaking the law will be held accountable.”

A DHS spokesperson didn’t answer questions about why so few prosecutions have resulted from HSI’s work. The agency wouldn’t specify what tools or techniques HSI had used, but confirmed it had cross-referenced “publicly available data” from state voter rolls with information on “known illegal aliens” in its systems. “It’s not rocket science,” the spokesperson wrote of this initiative in a response to ProPublica’s questions. “It’s an easy step to secure our elections.”

Teirab and the U.S. attorney’s office in Minnesota declined to comment.

There’s an array of reasons why Trump’s campaign to document claims of widespread voter fraud hasn’t succeeded. Most obviously, it’s exceedingly rare, as countless studies and state audits have found. Noncitizens often get on voter rolls by accident or when government officials make errors. Last month, New Jersey disclosed that a mistake involving its Motor Vehicle Commission caused 6,600 noncitizens to be registered (fewer than 400 voted).

The administration’s critics say its hunt for noncitizen voters aligns with Trump’s attempts to seek more federal control over elections while stoking doubt and fear about the voting process. Since taking back the Oval Office, Trump has tried to impose new restrictions on voter registration, mail-in ballots and voting machines, though judges have shut down most of these efforts.

Former officials at DHS and the Justice Department called the move to involve HSI a further escalation and questioned the propriety of aiming the agency’s muscle and technology at individual cases of illegal voting.

“It’s one thing if you’re going after Pablo Escobar,” said Steve Bunnell, a former DHS general counsel and senior intelligence adviser who handled voting fraud prosecutions during more than a decade at the Justice Department. “It’s another thing if you’re going after some cleaning lady who’s been working in the United States for 20 years and taking care of her 80-year-old mother and taking her little kids to church.”

An illustration of a row of armed personnel in tactical gear and helmets sitting at computer desks in front of glowing cyan monitors.
Matt Rota for ProPublica

“The Swiss Army Knife of Federal Law Enforcement”

Trump’s enlistment of HSI in his election fight is no accident. Cobbled together in the aftermath of 9/11, the agency has 7,100 armed, highly trained agents and another 800 criminal analysts, as well as access to troves of confidential data about hundreds of millions of Americans.

Though part of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the agency has historically stayed out of immigration cases. During the first Trump administration, leaders of 19 HSI regional offices — virtually its entire top field hierarchy — signed a letter calling for HSI to become a standalone agency, arguing that ICE’s deportation work dissuaded people from cooperating with its investigations. But when Trump returned to the White House, it swiftly became clear that the agency would play a central role in investigations related to the president’s twin obsessions, illegal immigration and noncitizen voting.

Trump picked his field general for repurposing HSI even before taking the oath of office. In December 2024, he named Anthony Salisbury, a 50-year-old career agent who’d run the agency’s Miami office, as a deputy homeland security adviser, reporting to White House policy chief Stephen Miller. He was also given a dual appointment as head of HSI.

Salisbury was colorful: A mixed martial arts enthusiast, he once appeared at the agency’s headquarters with his face bruised and eye blackened from a recent bout. He’d sometimes entertain colleagues by pulling out a bridge that covers his missing front teeth.

To agency veterans, however, he was forever linked to a 2011 operation he’d overseen in Mexico in which one agent was killed and another wounded in a highway ambush by a drug cartel. An agency review submitted to Trump in April 2020 concluded that errors by HSI supervisors, including Salisbury, contributed to the outcome; it urged the administration to consider disciplinary action. None was taken against Salisbury, however.

Salisbury did not respond to requests for comment from ProPublica. A White House official called him “a critical member of the Trump administration” who was “cleared” in every review of the Mexico incident and was subsequently “promoted six times under multiple administrations.”

“It’s one thing if you’re going after Pablo Escobar. It’s another thing if you’re going after some cleaning lady who’s been working in the United States for 20 years and taking care of her 80-year-old mother and taking her little kids to church.”

Steve Bunnell, a former DHS general counsel and senior intelligence adviser

Once elevated to his new posts, Salisbury took charge of carrying out the second Trump administration’s agenda for HSI, personally issuing staffing directives, reassignments and promotions, current and former agency officials told ProPublica. (A number of them spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear of retribution.) 

Starting in early 2025, Salisbury oversaw the unprecedented reassignment of more than 6,000 agents to immigration enforcement, diverting most of the agency from its normal duties. He then also pointed HSI at noncitizen voting, presiding over multiple meetings with officials at DOJ and Homeland Security focused on election fraud, according to emails reviewed by ProPublica and agency supervisors who worked with him.

“Stephen Miller has an HSI deputy for a reason,” said Eric Balliet, a high-level HSI manager who retired in 2024 after 23 years with the agency. (Like many HSI veterans, Balliet has remained in close contact with former colleagues.) “Salisbury is going to salute and execute, and he is going to make sure that from the HSI side, they fall in line, and there’s going to be no resistance or pushback. HSI has been turned into the Swiss Army knife of federal law enforcement.”

In early July 2025, Frank Quiñones, an HSI special agent who’d worked under Salisbury in Florida, approached leaders at the HSI Innovation Lab with an idea for using the agency’s technology to find noncitizen voters on state voter rolls, sources at the agency told ProPublica. Quiñones had been transferred to Washington to oversee a unit that had previously handled cases involving the theft of government benefits but that had been enlisted into voting investigations.

The lab, housed in an unmarked office in a D.C. suburb, had access to the government’s most sensitive databases, from suspicious activity reports to arrest records. Staffed by a combination of HSI experts and outside consultants, it developed software tools to comb the data for information that could help agents pursue criminal suspects.

Quiñones was a true believer in Trump’s claims about election fraud: In multiple Facebook posts and reposts, ProPublica found, he promoted claims that the 2020 presidential vote had been stolen. At a meeting with the Innovation Lab’s overseers, according to sources who worked in the lab, he pitched using the lab’s technology to identify illegal voters — even though the agency lacked voter rolls that included identifiers such as partial Social Security numbers. (Quiñones did not respond to ProPublica requests for comment.)

For proof of concept, Quiñones proposed using a February 2021 public voter list he’d obtained for New Jersey and running it through HSI’s databases. The lab staff viewed his idea as “a little insane,” one recalled — both unreliable and improper. Since the public rolls don’t include voters’ unique identifiers, people at the lab also knew linking them to HSI’s data would produce mismatches — what the staffer called an “ungodly” number of false positives. The lab team also worried about violating longstanding safeguards limiting use of private citizen data. They “didn’t want to touch this,” the staffer added. Quiñones defended his idea, repeatedly declaring: “The president wants this!”

Tom Hodge, an HSI data analyst at the meeting, proposed running the voter information through the Athena Toolbox, an analytical platform developed by the Sandia National Laboratories that had access to all of HSI’s databases. (Hodge did not respond to ProPublica requests for comment. Sandia referred ProPublica’s questions to the facilities’ parent agencies, including the Department of Energy, which did not respond to our requests.)

Hodge and the Sandia team spent the next six weeks on the project, reporting they’d found large numbers of noncitizens on Quiñones’ 2021 New Jersey list. According to one former HSI official, they said they’d found “5,000 high-confidence illegal voters” in just a single New Jersey county. (Officials at the New Jersey secretary of state’s office, which oversees the state’s voter rolls, declined to comment on the claim. Beth Thompson, head of a group for local New Jersey election officials, called the number impossibly high, even accounting for the mistake disclosed by the state.)

The apparent breakthrough couldn’t have come at a better time.

The Trump administration’s other efforts to identify noncitizens on state voter rolls were running into a variety of roadblocks.

The administration had hoped to persuade states to check their voters’ citizenship status using a system called the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements, or SAVE, but many didn’t. Most states also refused the Justice Department’s demands to turn over their unredacted voter rolls, including partial Social Security numbers, which thwarted the agency’s plan to run them through SAVE. Courts have stymied the DOJ’s attempts to sue for the records, citing the Constitution, which gives primary control over elections to the states.

In an Aug. 21 email to a half dozen administration officials, Quiñones touted the solution he’d brought to the HSI Innovation Lab: using HSI’s platform to search voter rolls. The results, Quiñones noted, could fuel both criminal and immigration investigations.

By the end of the month, those in top election-related roles at DHS and the Justice Department were actively promoting what they dubbed the “HSI Tool” as a preferred alternative to SAVE, according to people familiar with the matter. Among them was Heather Honey, the prominent election denier appointed as a senior counselor at DHS, who is helping lead the government’s efforts to identify noncitizens on voter rolls. (Honey did not respond to ProPublica’s requests for comment. In an email responding to questions to her, DHS said Honey’s “expertise in election administration” was “invaluable to the Department’s efforts to protect critical infrastructure.”)

The White House, too, got behind the idea. In a November email, J. Brian Sikma, special assistant to the president, excitedly noted that the New Jersey trial cross-checking voter rolls with DHS data appeared to have identified a “very significant number” of “potential non-citizens.” (Sikma didn’t respond to a request for comment.)

The DOJ, Sikma reported, had already obtained public voter rolls for many other states. He included a list of them, adding: “It is of paramount importance that these also be reviewed expeditiously.”

An illustration features a framed portrait of a man in a suit on the left hanging next to a large display board showing a red map of the United States crisscrossed with white dotted paths.
Matt Rota for ProPublica

Running “Roughshod” Over Privacy

As the push to use HSI’s tech to search voter information gained momentum, a new problem emerged.

Career attorneys at the Justice Department, including specialists on privacy law, raised concerns that transferring voter rolls wholesale from the agency to DHS might not be legal, according to internal emails reviewed by ProPublica and interviews with several former officials.

The voter rolls the DOJ had collected contained sensitive information on millions of Americans. Even the public versions, which political parties and candidates routinely obtain to target ads and messages, included voters’ addresses, birth dates and party affiliations. For the 16 states that have agreed to share their unredacted voter lists, the DOJ had citizens’ partial Social Security numbers or driver’s license information, too.

Federal laws, particularly the Privacy Act, dictate what data government agencies can collect, what it can be used for, how it can be shared, and how it must be protected. Agencies have to disclose their plans in advance, gathering public comment. A person’s information can’t be released or shared without their consent, subject to limited exceptions.

From the outset, the Trump administration’s effort to combine data across federal agencies has repeatedly drawn criticism from courts and whistleblowers for failing to adhere to restrictions meant to keep data private and secure. In June, for example, a judge prohibited the government from using SAVE for mass searches, ruling the administration had violated federal privacy laws by giving DHS access to Social Security data to enhance the tool. The administration has appealed that ruling.

In July 2025, as word got around that the DOJ might hand over voter data to DHS, a half dozen career attorneys who had been reassigned into the voting section voiced their unease to supervisors, according to two former DOJ lawyers. Their concerns were disregarded, prompting most to resign.

Instead, the DOJ’s office of legal counsel pushed forward with plans to share the public voter rolls, claiming a Privacy Act exception allowed HSI to receive such data without public notice as long as it was for law enforcement purposes. DHS just needed to submit a letter officially requesting the data for those purposes, an attorney in the legal counsel’s office explained, according to internal emails.

But this exception was meant to be used to get information on individual criminal suspects, not to gain mass access to data on people suspected of no wrongdoing, according to Nikhel Sus, chief counsel for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, which has sued the Trump administration on behalf of voter and pro-privacy groups, filing the case that eventually limited SAVE’s use.

“[Anthony] Salisbury is going to salute and execute, and he is going to make sure that from the HSI side, they fall in line, and there’s going to be no resistance or pushback. HSI has been turned into the Swiss Army knife of federal law enforcement.”

Eric Balliet, a former high-level HSI manager

Peter Winn, a 29-year Justice Department veteran who had served as the agency’s acting privacy chief for nearly a decade, drafted a letter to set out the data-sharing agreement between the DOJ and DHS, according to internal documents reviewed by ProPublica.

In a Feb. 12 email to two top DOJ officials, he said he’d rewritten an initial draft memo to “make the information sharing arrangement far easier to defend, if and when it is challenged in court.”

Rather than simply handing over the voter rolls, Winn proposed having DHS request “pertinent and relevant” information about specific people from the DOJ, then having technical staff at Justice and Homeland Security “coordinate” to fulfill the requests.

“Having slept on it,” Winn wrote, “I ended up deciding that our initial idea of sending a huge amount of raw unprocessed voter registration data to DHS, involved taking far too much unnecessary legal risk, given that 99% of the data would implicate the privacy and civil liberties of United States Citizens, and would risk adding to the false narrative in the establishment press of DOJ and DHS being unconcerned with the privacy and civil liberties of Americans.”

Winn attached his proposed letter, to be signed by Todd Lyons, then the acting director of ICE.

Winn’s suggested restrictions were quickly abandoned, however. A second draft of the letter, dated March 4, contained altered language providing that the voter information would be “transferred” to HSI, with one exception: Voters’ party affiliation would be redacted, if possible, it said.

The final letter, signed by Lyons and sent to the DOJ just two days later, abandoned even that limitation. Just three paragraphs long, it permitted HSI to use the voter rolls to pursue any “appropriate investigation of potential violations of federal election law.”

In response to questions from ProPublica, Winn said “I can’t really comment on internal drafts of correspondence.”

A Justice Department spokesperson defended the government’s actions, saying “no one should oppose intergovernmental data sharing and coordination that enable swift investigations and prosecution of illegal alien voting.” DHS echoed the DOJ’s view, calling such information sharing “essential to protecting America’s election process by keeping noncitizens off voter rolls” and “an easy step to secure our elections.”

Sus said that by pooling voters’ sensitive personal identifiers, along with their party and voting histories, the administration has “run roughshod” over privacy laws and is creating a “1984-style database” that could be used to surveil political participation.

CREW filed a lawsuit in April on behalf of the nonprofit advocacy group Common Cause that argues it’s illegal for the administration to use the law enforcement exception to justify mass sharing of voter information.

Balliet, the former HSI agent, expressed similar concerns, saying that handing over voter rolls to run through DHS’ systems amounted to “a mass data-collection effort by the government against its own citizens in a non-criminal setting.” On a practical level, he added, the data sharing increased the risk of breaches that can open law-abiding citizens up to identity theft.

“As a citizen, I want the government to take seriously the protection of my private data,” he said. “If it falls into the wrong hands, it’s not the government that suffers. It’s me.”

An illustration depicts a surveillance drone hovering against a dark, textured sky, casting a bright beam of light directly onto a person with a raised hand standing in a line of people waiting to vote.
Matt Rota for ProPublica

Collapsing Claims

By January 2026, scores of HSI agents were fanning out across the country to investigate thousands of leads about illegal voting.

About 25,000 of them involved people SAVE had identified as potential noncitizens on state voter rolls. Another 15,000 were given to HSI’s cross-border financial crimes unit, which was told to prioritize them over money laundering and fraud cases, a former high-level HSI official said. Quiñones’ unit led a separate effort to find additional cases by reviewing whether people who’d recently become citizens had voted before they were naturalized, then lied about it in naturalization interviews.

Still more leads came from running public voter rolls through the HSI lab’s databases, though it’s not clear how many. Agency sources told ProPublica that the rolls of New Jersey and Pennsylvania were searched using the Athena Toolbox. When DHS announced it had found more than 250,000 noncitizens on the registered voter lists of four Democrat-led states, it said that included “as many as” 35,152 in New Jersey and 14,576 in Pennsylvania. Both states have asked DHS to provide the source of the numbers.

Once federal investigators started digging into these cases, however, they often fell apart.

Through May, prosecutors had charged fewer than four dozen people with crimes related to noncitizen voting, ProPublica’s analysis of DOJ data and federal court filings shows, getting convictions or guilty pleas in 14 cases.

The largest cluster of cases was brought in the Southern District of Florida, headed by Jason Reding Quiñones (no relation to the HSI agent), a staunch Trump ally who has led investigations of the president’s political opponents. Voters have been sentenced in eight of the office’s cases; seven others are pending.

Prosecutors have initiated a total of seven noncitizen voting cases as of May in the four states where DHS claimed to have found more than a quarter million noncitizens on the rolls. Collectively, these states have more than 40 million registered voters.

Overall, the paltry numbers reflect the realities HSI investigators confronted on the ground as they tried to convert leads into cases, a ProPublica review of records obtained by voting-advocacy groups Campaign Legal Center and Democracy Forward shows.

Emails between agents and local election officials in Texas and Ohio indicate much of the federal information on purported noncitizens was inaccurate, the consequence of flawed data matching. When agents demanded voting histories and registration forms, they often discovered people weren’t registered in the counties where HSI thought they were. When voters register, they must attest that they are U.S. citizens; agents found some, however, who’d been put on voter rolls in error after disclosing they weren’t citizens. Many had never voted.

“Our initial idea of sending a huge amount of raw unprocessed voter registration data to DHS, involved taking far too much unnecessary legal risk, given that 99% of the data would implicate the privacy and civil liberties of United States Citizens.”

Peter Winn, a Justice Department veteran, in an email urging limits on data sharing that were not adopted 

Most HSI agents, steeped in pursuing complex international crimes, had no experience in pursuing voting fraud. In his email to Nick Davis at the Justice Department, Teirab, the top deputy in Minnesota’s U.S. attorney’s office, described the chaos that ensued when the state and at least six counties got subpoenas for voters’ records. The demands “presented a host of issues,” Teirab wrote to Davis. (Davis did not respond to a request for comment.)

“An unknown number of agents are constantly arriving in Minnesota without any knowledge of the investigation, the issues already discussed and decided, and the processes they need to follow,” Teirab complained. “Instead of getting up to speed and learning, they have demanded many calls and subpoenas, most of which demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of the investigation.”

In Stearns County in central Minnesota, HSI agents subpoenaed voting histories on 13 people, county officials told ProPublica. Only six turned out to live there.

Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon, a Democrat, said the effort revealed federal investigators’ ignorance about “the nuance of elections administration.” The rate of purposeful election crime is “microscopic,” he said. “The very human errors that can happen are not some sort of plot or scheme to dirty up the voting rolls, but are just everyday human beings making mistakes, not intending at all to violate any law.”

As of May, only one illegal voting case has been referred for prosecution in Minnesota. The state has more than 3.8 million registered voters.

Even Republican-led states like Ohio, which has shared its unredacted voter rolls with the DOJ and run them through the SAVE system, have struggled to meet Trump administration demands to deliver cases.

In October, the Ohio secretary of state referred more than 1,000 voters identified as possible noncitizens to the federal government, claiming 167 had voted at least once since 2018. At least nine HSI agents in Cincinnati and Cleveland began to investigate, emails obtained by Campaign Legal Center and shared with ProPublica show.

The agents bombarded local election officials with requests for voting histories and other records, some dating back decades. “Sorry again for piecemealing these to you,” one agent wrote to an official in Butler County, outside Cincinnati, after making five separate requests over two weeks. Mohamed Al-Hamdani, a Democratic member of Montgomery County’s Board of Elections, which received similar inquiries, said they amounted to “witch hunts” that ate up staff time.

In February, Davis sent an email pressing Ohio’s two U.S. attorneys’ offices for an “election integrity” update, asking: “How close are we to complaints/indictments, how many subjects, what issues you’ve run into, how many referrals have been closed and why, how helpful HSI has been.”

As of May, just two voting cases had been referred for prosecution in Ohio and no one had been charged, federal data shows. The state has nearly 8 million voters.

In the past, it was uncommon for federal prosecutors to pursue charges against noncitizen voters who didn’t understand that it was against the law for them to vote. Without evidence of a coordinated effort or plot, it didn’t make sense to put resources into such prosecutions, a former DOJ official who oversaw election cases said.

Now, however, U.S. attorneys’ offices are taking a different approach, pursuing prosecutions that could result in prison terms or deportation.

In May 2025, federal prosecutors in Florida filed illegal voting charges against a mother and daughter, both Ukrainian citizens, who’d registered after becoming permanent U.S. residents, then voted in the 2024 presidential election. They’ve pleaded not guilty, with the mother saying in an interview with investigators that she thought having a green card meant she could vote. They and their attorneys didn’t respond to requests for comment from ProPublica. The prosecutor handling the case for the Southern District of Florida also didn’t respond to questions. The mother and daughter are scheduled to go to trial in September.

An illustration of a person leaning over a voting booth to cast a ballot, closely watched by a guard in tactical gear and a helmet standing beside the booth.
Matt Rota for ProPublica

“Far-Reaching Consequences”

Experts on both elections and national security warn there may be profound longer-term costs to unleashing the federal government’s investigative and prosecutorial might to try to prove the president’s claims about noncitizen voting.

Current and former HSI agents say critical investigations — including task forces aimed at drug rings, human trafficking and money laundering — have languished as the agency has pivoted to take on noncitizen voting and immigration enforcement.

In February 2026, according to court files and emails reviewed by ProPublica, an HSI agent in Ohio who’d been leading a multistate child sex abuse investigation was abruptly assigned to pursue dozens of leads on suspected noncitizen voters, work that took months. It wasn’t until May that he made an arrest in the other case. Prosecutors have filed child exploitation and pornography charges against the man, 38, in connection with acts involving at least five 14-year-old girls.

Cases like this “don’t just stop,” said Balliet, the 23-year HSI veteran. “When you pull people off them for an extended period of time, those criminal networks will adapt, and people get killed and kidnapped.”

Federal data hints at a broader slowdown in what had been HSI’s most urgent work. According to an annual government report, the number of wiretaps obtained by DHS — often to investigate drug trafficking — plummeted to 23 in 2025, from 133 the previous year. In the report, DHS attributed the decline to several factors, including “changes in administration enforcement and prosecutorial priorities.”

“It’s never been a better time to be involved in transnational organized crime,” said John Tobon, a high-ranking HSI official who retired in early 2025.

“The very human errors that can happen are not some sort of plot or scheme to dirty up the voting rolls, but are just everyday human beings making mistakes, not intending at all to violate any law.”

Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon

In its statement, DHS denied HSI has neglected its core mission, saying the agency has increased its efforts to combat criminal cartels, gangs and drug traffickers in response to multiple Trump executive orders.

Though HSI’s voting-related investigations have yielded only a small number of prosecutions, voter advocacy groups worry the Trump administration will use them to justify more extreme interventions.

Its latest tactics include threatening to withhold funds from states it says are refusing to check their voter rolls for noncitizens and saying it will prosecute state election officials who “knowingly” fail to remove noncitizens. Trump has also continued to press Congress to enact the SAVE America Act, which would require people to provide proof of citizenship when registering to vote, a measure advocates have criticized as a barrier to voting. Democrats are preparing for the prospect of federal troops being sent to the polls to intimidate voters.

“Those concerns are playing out in real time, with far-reaching consequences,” said Dax Goldstein, a director at the States United Democracy Center, a nonprofit group that works to build confidence in elections. “When federal agencies are misused and weaponized, people lose trust in government itself.”

Rocket Report: Rocket Lab shows off its flexibility; Blue Origin’s two-pad plan

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rocket-report:-rocket-lab-shows-off-its-flexibility;-blue-origin’s-two-pad-plan
Rocket Report: Rocket Lab shows off its flexibility; Blue Origin’s two-pad plan

Welcome to Edition 9.06 of the Rocket Report! Rocket Lab made a lot of news this week with its quarterly update, and it is clear the company is making impressive progress as it becomes much more than a launch company. But at the end of the day, a lot of the company’s success is predicated on the Neutron vehicle, and I’m not thrilled with Rocket Lab’s ambiguity around its readiness. As a user on X noted, the company’s language on Stage 2 being ready to ship to the launch site has not changed much in 12 months.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Rocket Lab decides to get flexible. Rocket Lab plans to start launching its Electron vehicle even more frequently and flexibly, thanks to a new portable spaceport system called GHOST, Space.com reports. GHOST—short for “Global Hypersonic & Orbital Spaceport Technology”—turns the company’s “Electron and HASTE rockets into a launch-anywhere, launch-anytime capability for multi-launch flight campaigns and critical national security missions,” the company said this week.

Onward to Alaska … Rocket Lab currently flies from two different launch sites—one on the North Island of company founder and chief executive Peter Beck’s native New Zealand and one at Wallops Island in Virginia. But the company recently announced plans to fly out of Alaska’s Pacific Spaceport Complex as well, and GHOST will expand its launch footprint even further. The company was inspired to develop the portable spaceport system, he added, to meet the needs of a HASTE (a suborbital hypersonic test bed) customer, who expressed a desire for Rocket Lab to be “a little bit more mobile than we are.”

ArianeGroup decides not to halt MaiaSpace. ArianeGroup has decided against dissolving MaiaSpace after the company posted a 37.5 million euro loss for 2025, pushing its shareholders’ equity below zero, European Spaceflight reports. Shareholders’ equity fell from a positive 35.82 million euros at the end of 2024 to negative 823,375 euros. Shareholders’ equity is what remains after the company has paid all its liabilities. A negative figure means MaiaSpace owes more than it owns.

Yes, most rocket startups lose a lot of money … Under French corporate law, when shareholders’ equity falls below half of the company’s share capital, the shareholder, in this case ArianeGroup, is required to decide whether the company should be dissolved or allowed to continue operating. At a meeting on June 25, 2026, ArianeGroup officially rejected the option of dissolving MaiaSpace, allowing the company to continue preparations for the inaugural flight of Maia. ArianeGroup’s pockets are not bottomless, so this bears watching.

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Firefly increases Alpha rocket production. Firefly Aerospace says it is seeing strong interest in its launch vehicles and is ramping up production, Space News reports. Firefly executives said in an August 11 earnings call that production of its Alpha launch vehicle is at an “all-time high” as development continues on its larger Eclipse vehicle. “I can’t stress enough that the demand for launch capacity is amplified right now. We’ve never seen launch capacity so constrained,” Jason Kim, chief executive of Firefly, said during the call.

Production hasn’t translated into increased cadence … “A majority of our manifest for 2027 has already been sold out,” Kim said, but declined to say how many missions were on its manifest for the year. “We’re not going to talk about guidance for 2027,” he said when asked about the company’s projected launch cadence for next year. Alpha has launched only seven times, dating back to September 2021.

Virgin Galactic isn’t flying, but it is naming. As Virgin Galactic nears christening the first of its next-generation spaceship designed to launch customers on suborbital flights, it still is missing a key component—a name, Ars reports. Virgin Galactic completed structural assembly of “Delta-1,” its first new spaceship, earlier this year and towed it from its assembly hangar to a test and launch hangar in Arizona. Like SpaceShipTwo, Delta spaceships are designed to fly with up to six people.

We like the name Horizon … Virgin Galactic plans to debut the Delta spaceship’s livery, including its name, as its next milestone before delivering the first vehicle to Spaceport America in New Mexico, where flight tests will begin. “Our first ship is now expected to enter commercial service in February 2027,” said Michael Colglazier, Virgin Galactic CEO, in a statement released on Wednesday. We advise the public to take that date with a grain of salt, but you can indeed vote to name the ship now. There are four options: Horizon, Explorer, Ascend, Apeiron.

Tank issue delayed RFA One launch. The majority owner of Rocket Factory Augsburg is still confident the company will conduct its first orbital launch attempt this year despite a setback in testing during July, Space News reports. In an August 6 earnings call, Marco Fuchs, chief executive of OHB, the German aerospace company that owns 65 percent of RFA, said engineers needed to “examine the tanks” of the rocket. “There was a problem with the tank, and this was uncertain, so the team decided to take a look into this,” he said.

RFA had been working toward an August debut launch … The company returned the rocket to the hangar and opened up the tank. He said he expected the rocket to be back on the pad soon but didn’t offer a more precise schedule. “The first test flight is still planned for later this year,” he said. “We’re hopeful that these last remaining challenges will be fulfilled in the next foreseeable days and weeks.” We’ll be watching with interest.

Chinese rocket breaks apart in flight. One of China’s most-used rockets, the Long March 7A, exploded a little more than a minute after lifting off on Monday evening, local time, Ars reports. The medium-lift rocket’s payload was classified, but it was believed to be a military communications satellite. The rocket’s liftoff from Wenchang Space Launch Site appeared to be nominal, but publicly captured videos showed that the rocket’s first stage exploded about 1 minute and 20 seconds into flight.

The front fell off … The Long March 7A rocket was developed by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and is operated by the state’s space agency. As of Monday night in China, state officials have not commented on the cause of the explosion. Later videos appeared to show the top of the rocket breaking off in flight. Based on the timing of the explosion, it occurred during the flight of the first stage of the vehicle, likely around the time of maximum dynamic pressure as the rocket accelerated through the lower atmosphere.

Neutron launch slips to 2027. Rocket Lab warned that the chances of launching its Neutron rocket for the first time before the end of the year are “narrowing” despite progress on the vehicle’s development, Space News reports. “As with any complex development program, we’ve had to tweak a few things along the way, but we’re moving now into final checkout and assembly of all of our flight hardware before integrating them at the pad,” Peter Beck, chief executive of Rocket Lab, said on the call.

Let’s be real … Ongoing work on the vehicle’s two stages, engines, and other systems, he said, “lines up with our target delivery of Neutron to the pad in Q4 2026.” Even if the stages reach the pad during the fourth quarter of this year, they still must be integrated and undergo additional testing. It is often during this final integration that problems are discovered. For this reason we can confidently say Neutron will not launch this year. Next year is plausible, but not guaranteed.

Rocketdyne returns as a standalone space company. Rocketdyne is returning as an independent company as AE Industrial Partners completes its purchase of L3Harris Technologies’ space propulsion, power, and electronics units, Space News reports. The revived Rocketdyne won’t resemble the full Aerojet Rocketdyne inherited by L3Harris three years ago. That company combined solid rocket motors, launch engines, and spacecraft systems under one roof.

RL-10 remains key asset … Missile propulsion, solid rocket motors, and hypersonic technologies remain with L3Harris’ Missile Solutions business, which the company plans to take public. The RS-25 engine used on NASA’s Space Launch System core stage was also excluded from the sale and remains wholly owned by L3Harris. Rocketdyne will concentrate on launch-vehicle engines, spacecraft propulsion, space electronics, and nuclear power systems. Its best-known product is the RL-10 upper-stage engine, which is used by United Launch Alliance’s Atlas 5 and Vulcan rockets. (submitted by Tfargo04)

Blue Origin narrows in on BE-4 failure. Blue Origin has provided its first substantive update on the cause of the catastrophic loss of the New Glenn rocket and most of its launch pad infrastructure at Cape Canaveral, Florida, in May. The space company’s chief executive, Dave Limp, confirmed widespread speculation that the problem started in one of the rocket’s seven BE-4 engines that power the vehicle’s first stage, Ars reports.

Root cause not identified yet … “The anomaly originated at the main oxygen valve on one of the BE-4 engines, which was later confirmed by hardware recovery and inspections,” Limp said. He added that the company’s path forward is “clear” as Blue Origin works toward returning the New Glenn rocket to flight before the end of this year. This is a positive update, and the transparency is appreciated. However, it also seems clear from Limp’s statement that the company has not yet identified the root cause of the issue.

SpaceX set to acquire large swath of Louisiana marshland. SpaceX and the state of Louisiana are close to finalizing a deal for the launch company to acquire about 130,000 acres along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, Ars reports. The deal would give SpaceX control of an 18-mile stretch of marshland southwest of Lafayette. The site, known as Pecan Island, became available as part of a legal settlement that resolves dozens of lawsuits that blame ExxonMobil for pollution and coastal land loss, the newspaper reports.

There has been no confirmation from SpaceX or Louisiana officials … But earlier this year the Louisiana Legislature passed a package of incentives for aerospace companies, including liability protections and property tax breaks. If SpaceX is to fulfill its ambitions to launch thousands of Starship rockets a year to build a massive constellation of orbital data centers, among other purposes, it needs more launch sites. And there are limited expanses of undeveloped coastal locations along the Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic Ocean in the United States.

Blue Origin announces two-pad plan. In May, the explosion of New Glenn’s rocket took out Launch Complex 36A at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. In the weeks after the anomaly, Blue Origin outlined plans to restore that pad for New Glenn operations as soon as possible. On Thursday, the company revealed that it will also move to quickly develop a larger launch pad at the nearby Launch Complex 36B.

New launch tower will resemble Starship tower … This newer pad will serve as the operational home for New Glenn 9×4 (that is nine first stage engines, four upper stage engines), while LC-36A remains the operational home for the smaller New Glenn 7×2 vehicle that blew up earlier this year. Additional infrastructure planned includes a new Vertical Integration Facility for the 9×4 vehicle and a Payload Processing Facility. Built in partnership with the US government, this facility will support both variants of New Glenn.

Next three launches

August 15: Falcon 9 | USSF-366 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 21:52 UTC

August 16: Falcon 9 | Globalstar 2-R | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla. | 01:12 UTC

August 16: Long March 12 | Unknown payload | Wenchang Space Launch Site, China | 04:10 UTC

Ukraine and Iran: why military strength doesn’t mean winning wars

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Ukraine and Iran: why military strength doesn’t mean winning wars
Russian president Vladimir Putin, stands behind an honour guard of Russian soldiers.

Russia’s military superiority over Ukraine hasn’t enabled it to land a decisive blow on the battlefield. EPA/Alexander Nemenov/pool

What do Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu, Volodymyr Zelensky and Mojtaba Khamenei have in common? The military power that they can all command is far easier to use than to convert into political success.

They command vastly different resources and pursue different goals. Trump and Putin lead nuclear powers (it’s generally accepted that Netanyahu does too, but Israel has never acknowledged this). Trump, Putin and Netanyahu all started wars.

Zelensky inherited a frozen conflict that escalated into full-scale invasion. Khamenei inherited both a war and Iran’s highest office at once, becoming supreme leader in March 2026 after his father was killed in the US-Israeli strikes that opened the conflict on February 28.

Trump can order devastating strikes but not answer how Iran fits into a future regional security order. Netanyahu can destroy infrastructure across Gaza, Lebanon and Iran but not guarantee security for Israel. Putin can sustain an invasion for years, yet still can’t force Ukraine into territorial compromise. Zelensky can deny Russia victory but his forces struggle to recover occupied territory. And Khamenei can make defeating Iran costly but he can’t stop the US or Israel from trying.

Such stalemates are not new. That they have become seemingly unbreakable, however, is. The old logic of asymmetric warfare was relatively simple: the weak can prevent the strong from winning by using unconventional tactics and weapons to offset superior firepower. Russia discovered this in Afghanistan, the US rediscovered it there almost half a century after Vietnam. Neither was defeated in battle, yet both withdrew once superior firepower failed to produce a sustainable outcome.

To some extent, this logic still plays out in Ukraine and Iran. Ukraine doesn’t need to invade Russia to frustrate Putin – it needs to remain sovereign and prevent Moscow from dictating its future. Iran doesn’t need to defeat the US military or destroy Israel – it needs to preserve the regime and persuade adversaries that further escalation carries unacceptable costs.

A weaker country’s victory doesn’t require conquering territory or destroying an enemy’s forces – it may simply mean survival. This creates an imbalance: an aggressor must achieve something, a defender only has to prevent it. Putin loses if he cannot impose a settlement on his terms and Zelensky succeeds by denying it to him. Trump and Netanyahu may degrade Iranian capabilities, but if the regime survives, Khamenei can claim he has not been defeated.

The stronger side loses by not winning. The weaker side wins by not losing.

Time the great leveller

In this logic of asymmetry, time has always been a weapon of its own. Powerful states want speed – shock, collapse, a quick exit that doesn’t look like a forever war. Weaker actors play for time.

Ukraine’s survival in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion transformed the war, giving Kyiv time to mobilise society and secure western support, before then exploiting its ability to innovate, which has gone some way towards levelling the battlefield.

Iran’s cheap drones, missile attacks, sea mines and threats to energy infrastructure don’t need to defeat a superior coalition outright – only to prolong uncertainty and erode its adversaries’ will to continue.

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu embrace.

The US and Israel have the dominant militaries in the Middle East but Iran has been able to outmanoeuvre them in the current conflict. EPA/Jalaa Marey/pool

In both wars, the battlefield has become wider than the front line – to such an extent that the two wars are increasingly connected. Ukraine’s air campaign is degrading the oil pipelines and refineries funding the Kremlin’s war effort and its drone strikes in the Caspian Sea disrupt Russian drone supplies to Iran.

Iran and its proxies have turned military confrontation into a broader economic and political crisis – a “forever war”– well beyond the Middle East by threatening infrastructure and shipping routes of its neighbours in the Gulf and the Red Sea.

No strategic vision

The military forces that the weak and strong alike are able to muster can destroy infrastructure and kill commanders. But without an overarching strategy this remains just destruction.

This does not mean military superiority has ceased to matter. Stronger powers still have an enormous capacity to destroy infrastructure, degrade military capabilities, seize territory and improve their bargaining position.

In Ukraine, Putin may ultimately come away with territory he can present as a gain. But that is very different from his original ambition of bringing Ukraine back under effective Russian control.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at a podium, August 2026.

Volodymyr Zelensky can deny Russia victory, but his forces struggle to recover occupied territory. EPA/Andrej Cukic

The same applies to Iran: the US and Israel can destroy significant military capabilities of the regime and set back its nuclear programmes, but military superiority alone cannot guarantee that Iran will not rebuild and revive them, much less produce a political order in Tehran to the liking of Washington and Tel Aviv.

Strong powers retain an extraordinary ability to destroy and impose costs. What has diminished is their ability to turn that advantage into durable political control or decisive political outcomes. Trump wants leverage without another forever war. Netanyahu wants security that battlefield dominance alone can’t deliver. Putin wants territorial and political control that firepower hasn’t secured.

But weaker powers struggle, too. Zelensky must turn resistance into a sustainable future. Khamenei needs to preserve deterrence despite a war that began by killing his father and predecessor. Neither of them lacks instruments of power. But they do lack a clear path from those instruments to a stable and acceptable end state.

This is where the old logic of asymmetry is beginning to break down: neither conventional military superiority nor unconventional tactics of warfare seem to be able to break stalemates anymore. Winning wars may simply no longer be possible at all.

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NATO’s northern flank faces mounting disruption from suspected drone activity

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NATO’s northern flank faces mounting disruption from suspected drone activity


Military drones straying into the airspace of Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are stoking concerns that the war in Ukraine is spilling over into NATO’s northern borders with Russia.

As Ukraine steps up long-range attacks on Russian Baltic Sea oil shipping ports, some of its drones have missed their targets ​and led to security warnings in neighbouring countries. In the case of Latvia, it led to a government collapse.

March 25 – Two stray Ukrainian military drones enter Estonia and Latvia via Russia. One hits a chimney at Estonia’s Auvere power station, near the Russian border, and another crash-lands in Latvia.

Lithuania had earlier reported a Ukrainian drone crashing into a lake.

March 29 to 30 – Finland reports a suspected territorial violation by unmanned aerial vehicles in its southeast and deploys F/A-18 fighter ​jets. One flying object is identified as a Ukrainian AN-196 drone.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo says strong Russian electronic jamming could explain drones drifting into Finnish ​airspace.

March 31 – Estonia and Latvia detect foreign drone activity near their borders with Russia, and the Finnish border guard finds a drone ⁠on its territory. Estonia discovers drone debris in Tartu County.

April 1 – Estonia’s armed forces say drones detected in the country appear to have come from Ukraine and to have been ​intended for Russia.

May 7 – Latvia and Lithuania call on NATO to strengthen air defences after two suspected stray drones cross from Russia and crash in Latvia. One explodes at an ​oil storage facility in the Latvian region of Rezekne, damaging four empty oil tanks.

May 10 Andris Spruds resigns as Latvia’s defence minister after Prime Minister Evika Silina says anti-drone systems had not been deployed fast enough. Ukraine says the drones were Ukrainian but had been diverted by Russian electronic warfare.

May 14 Silina resigns as prime minister, triggering the collapse of Latvia’s coalition government after Spruds’ Progressives party withdraws ​support.

May 15 – Finnish authorities warn 1.8 million people in the wider Helsinki region to stay indoors because of suspected drone activity, and suspend air traffic at the capital airport ​while scrambling fighter jets.

President Alexander Stubb says there is no direct military threat to Finland.

May 17 to 18 – Explosives are found near the debris of a suspected Ukrainian military drone that crashed in ‌Lithuania, near ⁠the Latvian border and Belarus.

May 19 – A Romanian NATO fighter jet shoots down a suspected Ukrainian drone over Estonia after it enters Estonian airspace from Russia.

Ukraine apologises to Estonia and other Baltic allies, saying Russia redirected the drone through electronic warfare, and denies using Latvian or Estonian territory to launch strikes on Russia.

May 20 – Lithuania issues an “air danger warning”, tells people in Vilnius to take shelter and suspends traffic at the capital’s airport over a drone in its airspace.

Lithuanian lawmakers seek refuge underground at parliament, while train traffic is ​suspended and schools and kindergartens take children to ​shelters.

May 21 Latvia’s armed forces say at ⁠least one drone is flying in the country’s airspace, NATO fighter jets are seeking to combat the threat, and people in regions bordering Russia and Belarus should take shelter.

June 3 – Latvia and Estonia issue warnings overnight in regions bordering Russia, asking residents to ​seek shelter if they observe any suspected drone activity.

Latvia says NATO has scrambled fighter jets in response.

June 8 – A French NATO ​fighter jet shoots down a ⁠drone in Latvia’s airspace.

June 10 – Fearing drone incursions, tourists are cancelling visits to Latvian regions bordering Russia, officials say. The Baltic country’s new prime minister, Andris Kulbergs, states that he will spend his summer holiday in the affected area.

July 2 to 28 – Finland imposes a series of temporary airspace and maritime restrictions off the country’s coast near the Russian border.

These precautionary measures ⁠are taken “so that ​we can ensure the authorities are able to operate if drones were to stray into the area”, the ​military says on July 28.

August 14 – Jets on a NATO defence mission shoots down a drone that entered Latvia’s airspace, the country’s armed forces say.

Finland temporarily imposed airspace and maritime restrictions in the eastern Gulf of ​Finland as a precautionary measure against possible drones, its defence forces say.

Source:  Reuters

Nicole Kidman Makes Shocking Confession About Marriage to Tom Cruise

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Nicole Kidman Makes Shocking Confession About Marriage to Tom Cruise


Nicole Kidman is opening up about her whirlwind marriage to Tom Cruise — and revealing she was warned from the very beginning that saying “I do” to one of Hollywood’s biggest stars could come at a major cost.

The Oscar-winning actress, now 59, was barely into her 20s when she fell head over heels for Cruise, now 64, after meeting him on the set of the 1990 racing blockbuster Days of Thunder.

Their romance moved fast. The pair married in December 1990, when Kidman was just 23, and suddenly the young Australian actress found herself married to one of the most famous men on the planet.

In a candid new interview with British Vogue, Kidman admitted people around her warned that becoming “Tom Cruise’s wife” could overshadow her own rising career.

“Yeah, I got married so young,” Kidman recalled. “Suddenly I was 22, 23 years old and I had this huge movie star husband.”

But at the time, she said none of that mattered.

“We just fell madly in love, and it was that simple,” she explained.

Kidman said people bluntly told her, “OK, well this is really going to affect your career.”

Her response? She didn’t care.

“I’m in love. I want to be married,” Kidman remembered thinking.

As her husband’s fame exploded, Kidman said she quickly became known in Hollywood simply as Cruise’s “wife” — exactly what she had been warned might happen.

But even then, she insisted she had no regrets.

“So what? I wasn’t meant to marry the man I love?” Kidman said. “Of course I’ll throw my career away. I don’t care.”

Kidman and Cruise’s relationship quickly became one of Hollywood’s most closely watched marriages.

The couple went on to appear together in Far and Away in 1992 and Stanley Kubrick’s provocative Eyes Wide Shut in 1999, all while their private lives became constant tabloid fodder.

Kidman now believes those years helped shape the way she handles fame.

Despite describing herself as naturally shy, the actress said decades of scrutiny have made intense public attention feel strangely normal.

“Strangely enough, I feel comfortable,” she said. “Is that weird? That’s so weird.”

Kidman explained that because she entered Cruise’s superstar world at such a young age, she can barely remember what life was like before cameras and headlines followed her everywhere.

“Because of who I married at such a young age, I was thrust into it since I was 22,” she said. “[My life has been] more time like that than not.”

After more than a decade together, the Hollywood power couple stunned fans in February 2001 when they announced their separation.

Cruise subsequently filed for divorce, citing irreconcilable differences.

Kidman later showed that she could still joke about the painful split.

During a now-famous appearance on David Letterman’s Late Show shortly after the breakup, she took a playful swipe at Cruise’s height.

“Well, I can wear heels now!” Kidman quipped.

Kidman eventually found love again with country music star Keith Urban. The pair married in 2006 and had two daughters together before finalizing their divorce in January 2026.

More than 25 years after her marriage to Cruise ended, Kidman’s latest comments offer a revealing glimpse into just how dramatically her life changed when she became one half of Hollywood’s most famous couples — and why the warnings she received at 23 weren’t enough to stop her from following her heart.

Berlin expands the reach of the security state

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Berlin expands the reach of the security state

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Germany’s spies get powers once reserved for police
Diego Faßnacht reports that Germany’s intelligence overhaul would blur the postwar separation between spies and police, giving domestic and foreign services new cyber, surveillance and intervention powers at a politically explosive moment as the AfD becomes an increasingly formidable electoral force.

Russia hurts the feelings of Japan’s Iron Lady
Scott Foster reports that Vladimir Putin’s visit to the disputed Kuril Islands has sharpened tensions with Sanae Takaichi’s government, underscoring the collapse of Japan-Russia relations as Tokyo aligns with Ukraine while still facing practical economic and geographic reasons to manage ties with Moscow.

Moscow turns its firepower on Ukraine’s economic lifelines
James Davis reports that Russia retains the battlefield initiative while increasingly targeting Ukraine’s ports, factories, railways and energy infrastructure. Western claims of a Ukrainian turning point sit uneasily beside Moscow’s widening campaign to degrade Ukraine’s economic base before winter.

Google announces Gemini 3.7 Flash just three weeks after previous release

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Google announces Gemini 3.7 Flash just three weeks after previous release

Google is announcing a new Gemini model today, but it’s not the long-awaited 3.5 Pro. Gemini 3.7 Flash is now rolling out to replace 3.6 Flash, which itself was released only three weeks ago. This new “workhorse” model is supposedly the product of core optimizations and developer feedback, offering improved coding and agentic performance. And Google is hoping to counter the lower cost of some competing models with a lower “introductory price” for 3.7 Flash.

According to Senior Director Tulsee Doshi, Gemini 3.7 Flash is noticeably better at coding than the previous Flash release. She cites a jump in the FrontierCode 1.1 Main test from 34.4 to 43.6 percent and DeepSWE v1.1 going from 49 to 65.3 percent. As for the vibes, Gemini 3.7 Flash’s WebDev Arena score has risen to 1,588 from 1,538.

People turning to Gemini and hoping it will “know” things may also see modest improvements in Gemini 3.7 Flash. The GDP.pdf benchmark, which measures how well a model can process complex documents, has gone up to 34 percent versus 22 percent with 3.6 Flash. AutomationBench tests how well models can execute common business workflows, and Gemini 3.7 Flash rose to 30.4 percent from 3.6’s 17 percent score.

Gemini 3.7 Flash is a little better than 3.6 Flash in benchmarks.

Gemini 3.7 Flash is a little better than 3.6 Flash in benchmarks. Credit: Google

Those numbers certainly are higher. But are they sufficiently different to support a new model release just three weeks after the last one? This may be more about maintaining the appearance of constant improvements in Google’s AI. Throughout 2024 and 2025, Google rapidly made up ground to rival the best AI coming out of competing AI labs. Things appear to have slowed in 2026, though. At I/O in May, Google promised that the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro would launch in June, but that never happened.

Developers and businesses that have invested in Google’s AI tools will have to make do with a slightly better Flash model for now. Google is hoping a lower price will keep developers engaged with Gemini. Gemini 3.7 Flash will be available through the end of the year at a rate of $0.75/1M input tokens and $3.75/1M output tokens, which is half of what 3.6 Flash costs. OpenAI recently dropped the price of its GPT 5.6 models, with the Flash-like Luna version at $0.20/1M input tokens and $1.20/1M output tokens.

Given the breakneck speed with which Google has been releasing new Gemini models, it absolutely could have gotten 3.5 Pro out the door at any point this summer. The fact that we have now seen multiple Flash models edging closer to 4.0 suggests Google doesn’t want 3.5 Pro to be compared to the latest releases from OpenAI and Anthropic. Reports suggest that Gemini’s coding capabilities haven’t kept up with recent advances from other AI labs, which comes as Google is also seeing an exodus of AI talent.

Interested parties can begin using Gemini 3.7 Flash today—well, maybe. It’s live in the Gemini API, AI Studio, and Gemini Enterprise. For individuals, the availability is weirdly narrow. Gemini 3.7 Flash is now powering the Gemini Spark agent in the Gemini app, but only if you have an AI Pro or Ultra subscription. It’s not an option in the regular chatbot interface, which continues to run on 3.6 Flash for now.

China, Indonesia, Taiwan: the naval question Jakarta has to answer

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china,-indonesia,-taiwan:-the-naval-question-jakarta-has-to-answer
China, Indonesia, Taiwan: the naval question Jakarta has to answer

This week brought two Indonesia stories that sat side by side but pointed in different directions. 

In Jakarta, US Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby met Indonesia’s defense minister, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, as part of a Southeast Asia tour that also took him to the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia. At almost the same time, China’s Global Times reported that a Chinese warship, the Honghe, would hold a joint navigation exercise with an Indonesian navy ship in mid-August, in waters east of Taiwan.

One event was public and photographed, with gifts exchanged and statements about strengthening defense ties. The other was announced through a short report from a state-run Chinese outlet, in plain and calm language, with no press conference to match it. Both, in their own way, were about the same thing: winning a bit more trust and standing from Jakarta.

It is worth asking whether the timing was planned or simply coincidence. Indonesia is the largest country in Southeast Asia, sits on major shipping lanes and has the biggest economy and population in the region, so both Washington and Beijing have long wanted closer military ties with it. Either way, a friendly Chinese exercise announced during a high level US defense visit is a useful reminder of how much competition goes on quietly around Indonesia, even when it is not the headline story.

The Global Times report itself deserves a close read. It describes the coming drill in soft terms: communication practice, supply exercises, and language about deepening cooperation and “safeguarding regional peace and stability.”

But the same article, without much transition, also includes footage of the Honghe facing off with a much larger foreign warship near the Taiwan Strait earlier this year, a 20 hour standoff in which the two ships came within one to two hundred meters of each other. Placing a friendly drill announcement next to a clip of a tense confrontation is not an accident. It links Indonesia’s navy, even loosely, to a show of Chinese strength near Taiwan, one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the region.

Indonesia and China do have a real history of naval cooperation, though it has been uneven. Their first joint drills, known as Sharp Knife, were suspended around 2015 after friction over illegal Chinese fishing near Indonesia’s Natuna Islands, waters Jakarta considers its own but where Beijing claims historic fishing rights. Bilateral drills only resumed in 2021, and interest picked up again after 2024, when President Prabowo Subianto met China’s foreign minister to discuss restarting joint exercises.

Seen against that history, this drill looks less like a sudden shift and more like the next step in a slow rebuilding of ties once frosty over Natuna.

Indonesia trains with other militaries too, often in the very same disputed waters. Jakarta has hosted the Multilateral Naval Exercise Komodo, led the first ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in the Natuna Sea in 2023 and holds the large annual Garuda Shield exercise with the United States. Its foreign policy has long been described as “free and active,” meaning it avoids joining either side and tries to keep good relations with everyone, including Russia, which has also held naval drills with ASEAN.

Seen that way, a drill with China this month and a meeting with a US official the same week could simply be Jakarta doing what it always does, keeping its door open to all sides.

Still, the choice of location east of Taiwan raises a fair question that deserves a clearer answer than either government has given so far. Was this picked mainly for practical reasons, tied to the route Chinese ships were already sailing, or does it also serve as a signal, showing China can bring other navies into waters close to a dispute many nations try to stay away from?

Indonesian officials have not explained why this stretch of water was chosen, and Chinese state media is not a neutral source on that question. Its language about “peace and stability” reflects Beijing’s own framing, not an independent account. The same caution applies to Washington, whose own statements about the tour speak of building “durable peace through strength,” a phrase just as chosen as Beijing’s.

None of this means Indonesia has done anything wrong. Small and mid sized countries here are used to managing pressure from bigger powers, and hedging between them is a reasonable strategy, not a betrayal of either side. Indonesia has shown before that it can accept help from China without giving up its own position, as when Beijing sent rescue ships to assist after an Indonesian submarine sank in 2021, an offer accepted even as trust over Natuna remained thin.

But when a naval exercise is tied, even by name, to waters near Taiwan, the public deserves a plainer explanation from Jakarta about what it involves and why that location was chosen.

Quiet announcements that arrive during high profile visits are worth noticing, not because they prove a hidden plan, but because they show how easily ordinary military cooperation can be used to send a message that has little to do with the exercise itself. Jakarta does not need to choose between Washington and Beijing. But it does need to keep explaining its choices clearly to its own people, especially when those choices touch a place as sensitive as the waters near Taiwan.

Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the executive director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS). Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the director of the China-Indonesia and MENA-Indonesia desks at CELIOS.

Tunisia: Ennahda calls for release of female political detainees

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Tunisia: Ennahda calls for release of female political detainees

Tunisia’s Ennahda movement has called for the release of women detained for their political views, as Tunisia marks its National Women’s Day. 

In a statement on Thursday, the movement said the occasion was “not merely an opportunity to celebrate legal and legislative achievements, but also a tribute to the role of free women who have always been on the front lines of resisting colonialism and confronting authoritarian systems, while upholding the values of freedom and national dignity”.

It expressed its “absolute solidarity and full support” for women held behind bars because of their political views and positions in support of freedom, stressing that “restricting their freedom has not and will not deter them from being symbols of civil and peaceful struggle”.

The movement also expressed its “deep appreciation and full solidarity” with the mothers, wives and daughters of hundreds of political detainees, who it said were shouldering a heavy burden and waging a daily, patient struggle to support victims of authoritarianism, including political leaders, journalists, bloggers, human rights activists and civil society members.

It said continued arrests and prosecutions over political and civil activity and the expression of opinions were worsening the suffering of hundreds of Tunisian families and deepening the country’s political, humanitarian and rights crisis.

READ: Tunisia’s jailed Ennahda leader Ghannouchi stages hunger, medication strike, defense team says

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