The Trump administration’s Iran peace plan has sold out democracy

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June 26, 2026

the-trump-administration’s-iran-peace-plan-has-sold-out-democracy — The Trump administration’s Iran peace plan has sold out democracy

A cargo ship is attacked by Iran on June 26.

There are many who think Trump’s about face on Iran, virtually embracing the radical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (now the IRGC is linked up to CENTCOM in Doha, Qatar) is a sellout of US and allied forces, not to mention the now-frequent denunciations of Benjamin Netanyahu by the president and by Vice President JD Vance who also is the sponsor of the IRGC-CENTCOM hookup.

Embracing dictators and spurning those who are fighting for democracy is bad policy and is destabilizing in the long term.

Many pundits, including some genuine regional experts, have been trying to figure out why Trump abandoned the effort in Iran, embraced the most hated regime in the region and beyond, and is offering billions of dollars as compensation to Iran allegedly in exchange for access to Iran’s enriched uranium (something Iran keeps telling him will never happen). Some think that reports apparently from the CIA and DIA told Trump that America’s great bombing campaign did not really liquidate Iran’s missiles and drones, and that further bombing would not change the situation appreciably. So even though Trump in public said we had crushed the Iranians, his intelligence agencies told him the contrary.

Is this what pushed Trump to change course?

Trump shifted from a bombing campaign to a blockade to facilitate negotiations. That was on and off again for a while until Trump gave in to every Iranian demand. Supposedly that was going to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and get the oil flowing from the region. So far, despite Trump’s having signed a strongly pro-Iran agreement, it has not happened.

Trump blundered badly when he let the Iranians also tie any deal to getting Israel to pull out of Lebanon, a conflict started under orders from Tehran that has caused substantial harm in northern Israel. Trump blamed it all on “Bibi” Netanyahu.

Some think that the blockade was causing huge economic harm, especially in Europe (and the Europeans have mainly refused to back the US and Israel in the Iran conflict). These are the same Europeans who expect that the US will defend them in case of conflict with Russia, but who spend a pittance on defense themselves.

Europe has a combined GDP of nearly $28 trillion, compared with US GDP $31.9 trillion, so the Europeans have plenty of money (but absurdly small armies). Consider that the US can deploy 200,000 troops simultaneously while Europe probably can deploy 50,000, maybe fewer (since they have got to get them where they are going and Europe has limited lift capacity). By way of contrast, Russia has deployed around 750,000 in Ukraine.

Europe has voluntarily shut down Russian gas and oil. The Germans also scrapped their nuclear power plants. And someone blew up three quarters of the Nordstream pipeline. There would be no crisis on energy had they not done all this.

The pattern of Trump’s behavior in regard to Iran is no different than what he has done in Venezuela, would like to do in Cuba, tried to do in Gaza and is trying to do in Ukraine.

In Gaza Hamas is still in control and is not disarmed. The entire deal is mostly a fake, and the Gaza problem is not solved so long as Hamas is in control.

In Venezuela there was a real opposition capable of bringing the country back to democracy and purging Venezuela of the corrupt thugs running the place. The thugs are still in power and there are still political prisoners jailed in that country. Venezuela is not free, it is just selling its oil with the assistance of US oil companies. The Maduro group is still running the place (and even paying Maduro’s legal bills in New York). They win. Freedom and democracy takes it on the chin. The opposition has been put back in its hole.

What about Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Crown Prince of Iran? Trump did not support him, never gave him a chance. What about the 40,000 killed by the regime because they wanted to get rid of the Mullahs and the IRGC? Too bad. While the US said it was coming to their aid, it never happened.

Iran’s Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, with the Iranian, Lion and Sun flag.

The handwriting was on the wall with Venezuela, so there is no surprise here.

The US spent a lot of effort, along with key allies, especially the British, to get rid of Putin and break up Russia, opening it up to divide-and-rule and to capital investment. Didn’t work, at least not yet. So now we and our European allies are arranging the bombing of Russia, perhaps to force the Russians into a deal. Meanwhile we have side talks with Russia on economic incentives.

Trump’s deal with Iran, as absurd as it is, is popular among voters and Trump’s presidential stock has gone up in public opinion. His deal with Venezuela is not seen as negative. The Gaza deal is a bust. The Ukraine war continues. Americans care about gasoline prices and the cost of food, not about other countries.

In the long term President Trump has reinforced geopolitical instability and taught a harsh lesson to those who believed he was a modern-day savior and warrior against totalitarianism. The US image is deeply harmed, maybe irrevocably.

Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy under secretary of defense. This article, first published on his newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.

Streaming services’ obnoxiously loud ads become illegal on July 1 in California

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June 26, 2026

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streaming-services’-obnoxiously-loud-ads-become-illegal-on-july-1-in-california — Streaming services’ obnoxiously loud ads become illegal on July 1 in California

On July 1, it will be illegal for streaming platforms to play ads louder than the content being watched in California.

As The Hollywood Reporter highlighted this week, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed a bill (SB 576) in October 2025 that prohibits any video streaming service from transmitting the “audio of commercial advertisements louder than the video content the advertisements accompany” in the state.

The law brings some parity between streaming services and broadcast, cable, and satellite TV providers, which, under The Commercial Advertisement Loudness Mitigation (CALM) Act, can only play commercials at “the same average volume as the programs they accompany,” the FCC says.

We haven’t seen any streaming services explain how they will comply with the California law or if they will apply the volume adjustments to US streams outside of California. Although streaming providers could opt to only apply volume adjustments to customers that they detect as being in California, it’s reasonable to expect companies to apply these changes elsewhere. As it stands, streaming services will already have to apply the ad loudness requirements to streams in Illinois by July 1, 2027, per a bill passed this month.

The Motion Picture Association, which includes Netflix, Disney, Amazon Prime Video, and Paramount, and the Streaming Innovation Alliance, which includes Netflix, Disney, Peacock, and Pluto TV, opposed the bill. The groups argued that “many” streaming services were already trying to manage the “loudness of advertisements that come from server-side ad insertion that may be inconsistent with the loudness of the programs,” per a state Assembly analysis (PDF) from September 2025. Server-side ads can have differing volumes due to companies using various encoding pipelines.

Additionally, as the opposing groups previously pointed out, streaming services must contend with a broad range of output devices, including TVs, tablets, and phones.

Reporting on how streaming services might follow the California law, trade publication TV Tech in December reported: “Streaming providers will need to integrate file-based and, in some cases, real-time processing and loudness control into their server-side commercial insertion workflow, just as they currently do for their primary programming.”

The obstacles in managing the loudness of ads are underscored when considering the dissatisfaction that remains among broadcast, cable, and satellite viewers. The FCC said it received “at least” 1,700 complaints about this in 2024, about 825 in 2023, and approximately 750 in 2022.

Apple raises laptop and tablet prices amid global memory chip shortage

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June 26, 2026

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apple-raises-laptop-and-tablet-prices-amid-global-memory-chip-shortage — Apple raises laptop and tablet prices amid global memory chip shortage

Apple has increased the prices of selected MacBooks and iPads worldwide, citing a sharp rise in the cost of memory and storage chips driven by growing demand from artificial intelligence data centres.

The technology company said some laptops and tablets have risen in price by almost 20%, describing the current market as an “unprecedented challenge” caused by an “extraordinary surge” in demand for components.

“We have never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly,” Apple said, adding that it was working to find solutions.

Among the affected products is the MacBook Pro with one terabyte of storage, which has increased in price in the United States from $1,699 to $1,999. In the UK, Apple’s entry-level Neo laptop has risen from £599 to £699 only months after its launch.

Apple said it had previously absorbed the higher costs but had now reached the point where it needed to raise prices on several products, including MacBooks and iPads.

The announcement was followed by Microsoft’s Xbox division confirming a second major price increase for its gaming consoles in less than a year, also blaming rising memory and storage costs.

From August, the basic Xbox console will increase by $100 to $499, while the higher-capacity model will rise by $150 to $749. Following an earlier increase introduced in October, the price of a new Xbox console will be between 30% and 40% higher than it was a year ago.

Xbox said it had hoped to avoid another increase but argued that the wider electronics industry was being affected by a continuing components crisis.

“The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles,” the company said.

It added that the cost of memory and storage components had already more than doubled and was expected to double again by 2027, suggesting further price increases could be possible.

Industry analysts said the growing demand for memory chips used in AI data centres has disrupted the balance between supply and demand, driving up costs across the consumer electronics sector.

Tech analyst Paolo Pescatore said Apple’s decision showed that the AI boom was now affecting consumer electronics and demonstrated that even the world’s largest technology companies were no longer insulated from rising component costs.

Market research firm Counterpoint said other PC and tablet manufacturers were likely to follow Apple by increasing prices, reducing discounts on entry-level products or shifting their focus towards premium devices.

Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee said Apple’s strong brand loyalty meant the company was well placed to withstand higher prices with limited customer backlash.

Apple chief executive Tim Cook had earlier signalled that price increases were likely, telling the Wall Street Journal that they had become “unavoidable” because of the “unsustainable” situation surrounding memory chip supply.

The higher component costs are affecting a broad range of technology products. Gaming company Valve also recently increased the launch price of its Steam Machine, which is now priced at £879 in the UK and $1,049 in the United States.

New Demand Letter in Nancy Guthrie Case

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June 26, 2026

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new-demand-letter-in-nancy-guthrie-case — New Demand Letter in Nancy Guthrie Case

The twisted mystery surrounding Nancy Guthrie has taken another disturbing turn.

A person claiming to know the identities of the people behind Guthrie’s kidnapping has reportedly sent another email, and this time, the sender claims to have a phone containing video of Nancy with the alleged “main guy” on what may have been the final day of her life.

According to TMZ, the outlet received the latest message from the same person who previously contacted them with claims about the case. TMZ said it authenticated the email by matching details from earlier messages, including an old Bitcoin address and the alias used by the sender.

The new note appears to mock reports that the FBI believes the person behind the emails could be a woman.

“I am not the idiot who recently called in a tip about her burial site in Mexico,” the sender reportedly wrote.

The person now claims there were two kidnappers involved, which lines up with earlier messages suggesting more than one person was behind Guthrie’s disappearance and death.

Then came the latest jaw-dropping claim.

The sender allegedly wrote, “I have a phone stashed in a secure location guaranteeing both the information it stores and the safety of the phone.”

The person claimed the device contains what they described as evidence that would deliver the suspects “on a silver platter.”

According to the email, the phone allegedly holds “a short video of the main guy with nancy the day that was probably her last,” along with pictures of both people allegedly involved, plus names, addresses and ages.

The sender claimed the phone is hidden in a place that is “easy to access if you know where it is.”

But there is a catch.

The person is demanding one Bitcoin in exchange for the password and included a new Bitcoin address in the message.

TMZ said it has responded by demanding proof before taking the claim seriously, asking the sender to provide one screengrab of Nancy to authenticate the alleged video.

The outlet also said it has forwarded the latest email to the FBI.

For now, the shocking message only raises more questions in a case already filled with darkness, suspicion and chilling claims.

If the sender is telling the truth, the alleged phone could hold explosive evidence. If not, it may be another cruel attempt to profit from a tragedy that has already left too many unanswered questions.

Oregon Leaders Are Trying to Save the Deschutes River. Here’s Why That’s So Hard.

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Emily Cureton Cook

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June 26, 2026

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oregon-leaders-are-trying-to-save-the-deschutes-river-here’s-why-that’s-so-hard. — Oregon Leaders Are Trying to Save the Deschutes River. Here’s Why That’s So Hard.

Every year, about 90% of Central Oregon’s Deschutes River disappears into networks of canals and pipes traversing high desert. Between April and October, what’s left in this major river — one of the largest spring-fed waterways in the U.S. — looks more like a creek trickling out of Bend, Oregon.

Six irrigation districts — quasi-public corporations — divert the water to green up the properties of about 7,500 landowners in one of the state’s driest regions. Of the six, none is as powerful as the Central Oregon Irrigation District. It has rights to use more than half of the Deschutes’ volume — more than all the other districts combined. And under state law, in times of scarcity, most of the others must cut back to protect COID’s share of the river.

During the last drought, state water law forced commercial farmers downstream to fallow their land while COID diverted four times what its landowners’ crops consumed, an Oregon Public Broadcasting and ProPublica analysis of state data found.

Our analysis showed similar ratios across both wet and dry years, roughly aligning with estimates of what COID told the state its crops required. While state water managers did not dispute our analysis, the irrigation district said it didn’t trust the satellite-based data we used, which Oregon lawmakers backed to study water availability.

1. Pipes

COID delivers most of its water through open canals built 120 years ago. Blasted from porous lava rock, the canals have to be completely full for gravity to push water across the district’s more than 42,000 acres. Nearly half the water evaporates or seeps into the ground under the canals before reaching its destination. COID’s state water rights factor this in.

Replacing the canals with pressurized pipes could save a lot of water. It could also take 50 years and cost more than $700 million. The district is in the final planning stages of what could be a $360 million project to pipe a main artery leading to more than a thousand landowners between Bend and Redmond, Oregon. Few make their living as farmers, our reporting found. In exchange for federal and state funding for piping, COID has pledged to send water downstream to farmers outside the district.

A man and a woman stand beside pipes and equipment next to a large body of water. — At the end of a Central Oregon Irrigation District canal, pipes and valves allow water from the Deschutes River to be passed along to people outside the district. The more COID uses pipes, rather than open canals, to transport its share of the Deschutes, the more water it will share with water-poor farmers downstream, say district officials Watermaster Cary Penhollow, on the left in the first image, and Deputy Director of Water Rights Jessi Talbott. Emily Cureton Cook/OPB

A view from above showing a large pipe with water flowing out and two yellow ladders leading down to it. — At the end of a Central Oregon Irrigation District canal, pipes and valves allow water from the Deschutes River to be passed along to people outside the district. The more COID uses pipes, rather than open canals, to transport its share of the Deschutes, the more water it will share with water-poor farmers downstream, say district officials Watermaster Cary Penhollow, on the left in the first image, and Deputy Director of Water Rights Jessi Talbott. Emily Cureton Cook/OPB

The plan has gotten broad support, especially from Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley: “Repeated severe droughts make every drop of irrigation water highly valuable, and the best way to preserve irrigation water is to pipe it,” he told OPB and ProPublica.

The catalyst for focusing on COID, he said, was a threatened species of frog, which lives exactly where irrigation districts have long siphoned water, destroying its habitat. To stave off lawsuits under the Endangered Species Act, the districts agreed to leave more water in the river over time.

As it switches from canals to pipes, COID is supposed to send the water it saves to a neighboring district that will have to take less from the river as part of the plan to restore the frog’s home. That district, North Unit, serves a valley famous for commercial farms, but it’s already water-poor. It has rights to far less water from the Deschutes than COID does. Evan Thomas, a fifth-generation farmer and leader of North Unit, put the stakes plainly at a March public meeting in Redmond: “This pipe has to go in the ground by 2028 or North Unit, all of Jefferson County, basically quits farming.”

But even those who acknowledge that piping is a critical solution note that it won’t stop COID from diverting more water than its customers need — or from sending that water to a lot of residential properties growing grass and pasture. Last year, the nonprofit Central Oregon LandWatch pushed for a bill to put limits on overwatering. Helm and Republican state Rep. Mark Owens started drafting legislation, but they never introduced it. Owens, a hay farmer in Eastern Oregon, said irrigation districts weren’t happy with the proposal. “I weakened,” he said. “We weren’t going to get it through the building. We lived to fight another day.”

The Deschutes has never had enough water for all the landowners who laid claim to it more than a century ago, said Deschutes River Conservancy Executive Director Kate Fitzpatrick. Leaving water in the river for fish and wildlife wasn’t even considered a legal, beneficial use of the resource until the 1980s.

A group of eight people wade in a muddy pool of water holding bright yellow poles with fishing nets on the end. — Kathryn Styer Martínez/OPB

A group of people stand next to or immersed in a large body of water, dragging a net that extends from one bank of the river to the other. — Participants in the Deschutes River fish rescue event use nets to catch and move fish trapped in a side channel of the Deschutes River above Bend, Oregon, in 2024. At the end of each growing season, irrigation districts reduce flows in the river to refill upstream reservoirs, stranding fish. Kathryn Styer Martínez/OPB

“So that’s what we’re working with,” Fitzpatrick said. “We’re not going to win the game by pointing fingers at who’s doing what with the water.”

With more demand than supply, her nonprofit works with irrigation districts to roll out incentives for landowners to be more efficient or share voluntarily. One program pays landowners to dry up land so COID will leave more water in the river. But the district limits participation, and the program’s efficacy has plateaued for decades, state data shows.

State lawmakers last year also created a pilot “water bank” program. The concept marks a big change in the law and could allow COID landowners to keep what water they need and rent out the excess to farmers downstream without losing rights to it.

But since Oregon’s governor signed the bill into law nearly a year ago, COID and other key players haven’t signed anyone up. That’s because the canal system fails if it doesn’t have enough water in it, Horrell, the district’s manager, said. Piping could allow the district to scale up these other solutions in the future, he said.

There’s another problem, too: To rent out part of a water right without completely drying up their property, landowners would need to measure their use precisely — something many don’t want to do.

3. Data

COID said it doesn’t measure or report the volume of water it delivers. This is typical across Oregon, where the vast majority of water goes to agricultural lands. But policymakers and experts have long said the state can’t tackle water shortages unless it knows how much the people with irrigation water rights use on their properties.

The Legislature’s attempts to require meters on all individual farms and wells have faced fierce public backlash. “At one point my office was getting a call a minute,” Owens, the state representative, recalled of an effort last year. The fear, he said, is that the state will use data to take away water rights or to try to charge by the gallon.

Owens has given up on trying to force statewide metering for now, he said.

On his own Eastern Oregon hay farm, he started a pilot project that uses a weather station and satellite data to track how much his fields drink. He can look on his phone and see how many days he should irrigate the following week, he said. He also led the charge for Oregon to invest in a cutting-edge study to apply this technology to statewide water planning. Scientists with the Oregon Water Resources Department co-authored a report with researchers from the Nevada-based Desert Research Institute. It provides estimates over nearly 40 years of how much water crops consumed on every irrigated field in Oregon. The data, which OPB and ProPublica used in our reporting, was published last year. Horrell said such data has too many variables and is not ready to guide how the district monitors water use.

State managers are not currently using that data to regulate how water is used, but instead to account for where it goes, Oregon Water Resources Department Director Ivan Gall said in a recent interview. He said tight state budgets have so far kept his agency from sharing it “with the public and decision makers in a way that is understandable and meaningful.”

Owens and Helm said they tried and failed to make it easier to learn from critical data about Oregon’s water — how much there is, how clean it is, where it’s coming from and where it’s going — but a pilot project ground to a halt after state funding dried up last year.

Uzbeks’ World Cup appearance shows off Central Asia’s development

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June 26, 2026

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uzbeks’-world-cup-appearance-shows-off-central-asia’s-development — Uzbeks’ World Cup appearance shows off Central Asia’s development

The expanded men’s World Cup in 2026 has given fans the chance to cheer on the exploits of first-time qualifiers, some of which many people might previously have struggled to locate on the map. Standout moments have already included Curaçao’s goal-keeping heroics in earning a draw against Ecuador and Cabo Verde’s upset by pegging back reigning European champion Spain.

But one story has largely gone under the radar: the participation of Uzbekistan. According to some pundits, Uzbekistan should have collapsed into violent chaos years ago. Instead, it has become the first Central Asian state to play on soccer’s grandest stage. Behind this lies a fascinating tale of geopolitics and peace.

In the 1990s, overwrought geopolitical analysis portrayed the region as dangerous and in desperate need of western salvation. This was particularly true of the US. In 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor to Jimmy Carter and an éminence grise of the US foreign policy establishment, dubbed Central Asia “the Eurasian Balkans” on what he called the “grand chessboard” of great-power competition.

At the intersection of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sits the Ferghana Valley. With its complex patchwork of borders, enclaves and ethnic minorities, it became the focal point of this discourse of danger. A 1999 policy report written by American academics warned that, without US help, the valley could become “a breeding ground of terrorism” and “a hotbed of religious and political extremism”.

Map of Central Asia. — The Ferghana Valley sits on the borders of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Like most parts of the world, Uzbekistan has had its problems. Rapid economic growth has led to serious urban pollution, and youth unemployment is high, thanks to the growing population. As is the case with other countries in the region, a lack of political pluralism limits its ability to effectively grapple with these problems.

But the dire scenarios predicted by western analysts have not come to pass. For my research on borders, nation-building and geopolitics in the Ferghana Valley, I interviewed policymakers across the region. They all stressed the region’s ability to draw on historic cultural ties and practices of statecraft to manage the difficult transition from Soviet republics to independent nations.

After Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan gained their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the Ferghana Valley states inherited a set of complicated and disputed borders originally drawn as internal Soviet boundaries in the 1920s. These have proved contentious – yet in recent years the three countries have made a series of deals to transfer territory and fully delimit their boundaries.

The Khujand Declaration of March 2025 defined the boundary between the three valley states and put an end to decades of tension. In terms of international experience, this counts as remarkably quick progress.

Resolving border tensions

It is in the Ferghana Valley itself where progress is most visible. I saw border tensions ratchet up in the late 1990s and early 2000s. But in the past decade, a new generation of leaders has not only resolved territorial disputes but pushed a significant growth in cross-border economic, social and cultural connections. They have reopened dozens of previously closed border crossings, relaxed red tape and incentivised cross-border trade. This has led to significant increases in regional trade and has eased ethnic tensions.

In October 2025, the first Ferghana Valley Peace Forum brought governments and civil society together under a new platform for dialogue. A key organizer of the event, Akramjon Ne’matov, the first deputy director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies, an influential state-affiliated thinktank in Tashkent, emphasised that “the forum’s goal is to strengthen trust and good-neighborly relations, promoting a shared vision of the region as a space of cooperation and mutual benefit”.

According to Ne’matov, it serves as a robust response to the vision presented in Brzezinski’s “grand chessboard.” That outdated narrative not only was flawed but risked becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. It sowed mistrust rather than fostering development.

Despite initiatives like the ill-fated Central Asian Union, Central Asia has not succeeded in creating formal EU-style regional institutions. Western academics have routinely dismissed such attempts as mere “virtual regionalism.” But research from St Andrews University shows that informal arrangements between authoritarian governments to respect each other’s sovereignty and not allow single external powers to dominate have led to the emergence of an effective, informal regional order premised on personal diplomacy, stability and coexistence.

Shared destiny

This digs deep into historical notions of shared destiny. As a politician in Tashkent put it to me: “The important thing to keep in mind is that we are one home in Central Asia, one culture.” As the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, and the wars in Armenia and Azerbaijan and Russia and Ukraine wars suggest, Central Asia has arguably been more successful at resolving post-cold war ethnic and border disputes than Europe.

In March this year, I joined a sell-out crowd at an Uzbek Super League match, cheering on Ferghana Neftchi as it beat Tashkent Lokomotiv 3-1. The game took place in an impressive modern stadium in Ferghana. This confounded the predictions of 1990s analysts who saw the Ferghana Valley as the supposed locus of all the region’s ills.

Fellow fans were already looking forwards to the World Cup – although one wryly repeated to me a quip by comedian Hojiboy Tojiboev that the Uzbek team would “go there, eat ice-cream and then come back.”

On the pitch, this first foray onto football’s biggest stage has been challenging for the “White Wolves”, as the Uzbek team is known. But away from football, in our age of border closures and ratcheting geopolitical tensions, the West can learn a lot from Uzbekistan about how to manage regional tensions and plan shared futures.

Nick Megoran is a professor of political geography, Newcastle University; Independent Social Research Foundation.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Post-War Internet in Iran: More Censorship and Greater Risks for Users

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June 26, 2026

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post-war-internet-in-iran:-more-censorship-and-greater-risks-for-users — Post-War Internet in Iran: More Censorship and Greater Risks for Users

According to users, not only has internet speed declined further, but access to some of the most popular social media platforms, including Instagram and TikTok, remains extremely difficult even through various VPN services

While peace negotiations between senior officials of the Islamic Republic and the United States continue in Switzerland, more than 75 million internet users in Iran are still contending with heavily restricted online access.

Although internet access has been gradually restored over the past four weeks, users say the current online environment bears little resemblance to what existed before the January 8 internet blackout and the violent crackdown on protesters that followed.

According to users, not only has internet speed declined further, but access to some of the most popular social media platforms, including Instagram and TikTok, remains extremely difficult even through various VPN services.

State-linked media inside Iran have announced the restoration of #internet access to its pre-January uprising state. The internet in #Iran had been completely cut off or heavily restricted for about five months. #DigitalBlackOutIran‌

— Omid Habibinia (@omidhabibinia) May 25, 2026

A source familiar with Iran’s communications sector told The Media Line that the government has reopened the internet under conditions imposed by the Supreme National Security Council on the Supreme Council of Cyberspace.

“One of the main conditions was that the quality of access to, and control over, the global internet be altered in such a way that it becomes far more manageable and controllable,” he said. “VPNs are also being heavily monitored and tracked, and in practice, bypassing censorship has become considerably more difficult than before.”

According to the source, surveillance and monitoring aimed at updating blocklists have also intensified on an hour-by-hour basis.

Responding to a question about the effectiveness of solutions and workarounds proposed by internet platforms and activists, the source said that virtually all of them are monitored continuously and in real time, making the lifespan of such solutions very limited.

The source argued that the only viable solution would be the widespread availability of Starlink to millions of people. In that scenario, the creation of house-to-house networks and broader access would make it significantly more difficult for the government to monitor and track Starlink usage.

Estimates suggest that around half a million people across the country—primarily in northern Tehran—have access to Starlink. However, any carelessness by users when accessing domestic websites could expose them to identification and tracking. Security agencies have also established various traps to target Starlink applicants, increasing distrust of Starlink providers.

In recent weeks, raids by members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the police, and the Ministry of Intelligence on private homes to confiscate Starlink equipment have intensified, in some cases resulting in violent confrontations resulting in injury or even death.

The newly surfaced videos emerging from #Iran following the limited restoration of #internet access are so horrifying that they reveal only a fraction of the scale of the massacre carried out against civilians on 8 January. These images offer a glimpse into the most unprecedented… pic.twitter.com/n0iKGZKqOO

— Omid Habibinia (@omidhabibinia) June 21, 2026

Some of the newly surfaced videos from the January massacre circulating on social media are deeply disturbing.

Following an 88-day shutdown that outside monitors described as one of the longest nationwide blackouts ever recorded, the return of connectivity allowed more images and testimony to emerge online, documenting the January crackdown and the broader civilian toll of the conflict.

However, the Islamic Republic’s numerous security agencies also used the reopening of the internet to hunt down opponents and individuals communicating with journalists abroad or sending images and information to outside media.

Niko, a young protester in Tehran, told The Media Line that the Islamic regime has imposed extensive controls on internet access, making online content and social media significantly less accessible than before the internet blackout. Her image has been slightly modified to protect her identity and security. (The Media Line)

Niko, a young protester in Tehran, told The Media Line that the Islamic regime has imposed extensive controls on internet access, making online content and social media significantly less accessible than before the internet blackout.

Despite the risks of contact with foreign journalists, Niko, an Iranian protester, told The Media Line that while the Islamic Republic claims it has restored internet access, it has reduced speeds to the point that even VPNs that were functioning reasonably well a few months ago are practically unusable.

“At the same time, if you used government-approved applications while your VPN was active, you could be immediately identified, and they could cut off your access. The money you paid for the VPN would effectively be wasted,” she said.

In her most recent message, sent while the Islamic Republic and the United States had once again been involved in hostilities despite a ceasefire, she expressed serious concern about another internet shutdown. “If they cut the internet again, our situation will become even worse. The next step for the Islamic Republic will probably be to take away our mobile phones,” she said.

While Iranian officials have acknowledged the economic costs of internet restrictions, communication with human rights and civil society activists inside the country remains severely restricted. Many of them have been subjected to threats and intimidation designed to force them into silence. The internet is not officially shut down, but repression and suffocation have become even more severe than before the January crackdown, according to some sources.

Tara Dachek, a Canada-based human rights activist, told The Media Line that internet censorship in Iran has entered a more restrictive phase as authorities intensify efforts to silence critics. (The Media Line)

Tara Dachek, a human rights activist based in Canada, told The Media Line that the internet situation in Iran is no longer merely about censorship: “The scope of filtering has expanded to such an extent that communications that were previously possible can no longer be achieved.”

She noted that many people cannot access Starlink because of its rising cost, while bringing the equipment into the country has become more difficult and now carries harsher penalties.

Dachek also referred to Iran’s so-called tiered internet system, under which users are divided into several categories with sharply different levels of access. One group, she explained, enjoys unrestricted access to the entire internet. These are generally the same individuals who monitor the internet, track activists, create fake and counterintelligence networks, infiltrate opposition circles, and foster divisions among opponents. They are often affiliated with intelligence institutions.

The second group consists of regime agents and officials who occupy the next tier and have access to most internet content except for certain blacklisted pornographic websites. They are responsible for propaganda activities and routine government operations.

The third group faces greater restrictions but can still access platforms such as X. These are insiders who benefit from what is often described as a form of “white internet.”

At the lowest level, she said, are ordinary citizens, who account for the vast majority of users. They have access to almost no content other than approved material and Islamic Republic applications, where surveillance and monitoring can be carried out with relative ease.

According to Dachek, the central issue is precisely this classification system: determining which voices inside the country are allowed to be heard and which must be silenced.

Well-known and popular figures such as rapper Toomaj Salehi, Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, and numerous civil rights activists, including Sepideh Qolian, have faced extensive threats. Some users who posted content on Instagram that could be interpreted as criticism of the war have recently published images of judicial summonses ordering them to appear before Revolutionary Prosecutors’ Offices for questioning and prosecution.

Meanwhile, CITNA, a website specializing in information technology news in Iran, has reported that 68% of active Instagram users have still not returned to the platform following the restoration of internet access. Users say that commonly available VPN services still fail to provide reliable access to Instagram, which has remained restricted since the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising in 2022.

Beyond repression and political control, internet shutdowns in Iran have contributed to rising levels of depression among young people. In research presented by the author at the Global Communication Association conference in Casablanca last year, findings showed that internet filtering in Iran contributes to increased depression and hopelessness among young people.

While digital freedom remains a central demand for many Iranians, shutdowns can also create risks for the authorities by intensifying public anger and pushing political grievances from online spaces into public protest. This is the same fear referenced on Sunday by President Masoud Pezeshkian, who warned that if people reach the limits of their endurance, they will once again flood the streets.

FCC accused of hiding Chairman Carr’s messages with DOGE and Musk

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June 26, 2026

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fcc-accused-of-hiding-chairman-carr’s-messages-with-doge-and-musk — FCC accused of hiding Chairman Carr’s messages with DOGE and Musk

An advocacy group trying to investigate DOGE’s influence on the Federal Communications Commission accused the FCC of failing to comply with a public records request and of concealing Chairman Brendan Carr’s use of the Signal messaging service.

“The evidence clearly demonstrates that the FCC has acted in bad faith by withholding documents responsive to Plaintiffs’ FOIA [Freedom of Information Act] request,” journalist Nina Burleigh and advocacy group Frequency Forward said in a filing yesterday in US District Court for the District of Columbia. “The FCC acted in bad faith when it redefined the search criteria without notice to Plaintiffs or this Court. Further, the FCC acted in bad faith by concealing the fact that the Chairman Carr has a Signal account on a phone he uses to conduct government business.”

Burleigh and Frequency Forward sued the FCC last year, alleging that it violated the Freedom of Information Act by wrongfully withholding agency records. In August 2025, a federal judge ordered the FCC to produce documents and criticized it for a “vague and uninformative” response to the lawsuit.

The plaintiffs filed the initial FoIA request in February 2025 for an investigation into how DOGE’s activities at the FCC may have created conflicts of interest related to Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Starlink, which are seeking various FCC licenses and authorizations.

“The evidence strongly suggests that Musk bought his way into the White House and to obtain his position as the de-facto head of DOGE, and that he had used his government authority and access to information to earn huge profits for himself and his companies,” plaintiffs said yesterday. “Plaintiffs’ FoIA request seeks documents that shed light on the relationship between the FCC, Musk as regulator and Musk and his companies as regulated entities.”

Burleigh and Frequency Forward asked the court to deny an FCC motion for summary judgment, order the agency to produce all responsive documents within a week, and allow the plaintiffs to file discovery requests. Their filing accused the FCC of having “wasted a year of the Court’s time and frustrated Plaintiffs’ efforts to timely review critical records.”

The FCC “has sought to delay the production of responsive documents and obfuscate the existence of responsive records,” and “made it clear that it will not undertake a good faith effort to produce responsive documents,” the filing said. “Accordingly, discovery is required and will speed the document production process by helping the Plaintiffs identify responsive documents.”

Carr’s phone

The filing said there is evidence that Carr has Signal messaging set up on a phone he uses for FCC business. Carr’s phone number was previously disclosed in a FoIA request that turned up a November 2024 email from a Fox News producer who was confirming an interview. Entering that “number into the Signal app shows that he has an active Signal account under the username ‘Brendan Carr,’” the filing said.

A court filing submitted by the FCC on June 3 said that Carr did not have phone numbers for DOGE personnel and that “it is agency policy not to download additional messaging applications on FCC phones (e.g., Signal, WhatsApp).” Plaintiffs counter that Carr likely exchanged messages with Musk or other high-ranking DOGE officials.

“Plaintiffs do not know whether the number identified in Exs. 4 and 5 belongs to Carr’s personal phone or a government issued phone,” the filing said. “What we do know is that a phone is being used for government business and that it has a Signal account in Carr’s name. Based on information and belief Carr regularly conducts government business through text and Signal messages, communicating with journalists, industry professional and individuals who work for regulated entities, such as Musk and SpaceX.”

Plaintiffs said the FCC’s statement that Carr did not have phone numbers for DOGE personnel doesn’t settle the matter.

“It is unlikely that Carr would have communicated with individuals at that level. Carr would have communicated with Musk or other highly placed DOGE officials,” the filing said. Plaintiffs said a previous case involving DOGE showed that “DOGE personnel routinely conducted business on their personal phones using text messages, especially the Signal app.”

The filing separately accused the FCC of limiting its records search to emails with FCC, DOGE, and GSA (General Services Administration) domains, despite plaintiffs’ objections. It also said that travel documents provided by the FCC did not include anything about Carr’s visits to Starlink facilities.

We contacted the FCC today and will update this article if it provides any comment.

How climate change gets under the skin

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June 26, 2026

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how-climate-change-gets-under-the-skin — How climate change gets under the skin

A warming world is putting pressure on every system in your body.

Heat waves, wildfire smoke, infectious diseases, and other health threats amplified by climate change are jeopardizing decades of public health gains. As temperatures rise, experts warn that everyone is at risk.

This story is part of the Grist series Vital Signs, exploring the ways climate change affects your health. This reporting initiative is made possible thanks to support from the Wellcome Trust.

Doctors agree: Climate change is a hazard to your health. Leading medical journals warn that rising greenhouse gas emissions will result in millions of needless deaths and undermine decades of hard-won progress in public health.

Some of these risks are obvious. The immediate effects of extreme heat and wildfire smoke on the lungs and heart are easy to recognize — and particularly dangerous for those who are already immunocompromised or in poor health. Heat-related mortality has been rising since the 1990s, and wildfire smoke is now linked to tens of thousands of illnesses and deaths every year.

But researchers are beginning to unearth clues about how repeat, overlapping climate stressors, from flood-related mold to warming water temperatures to higher pollen counts, affect everyone — even society’s healthiest members. No one is immune.

Here’s what we know, so far, about the lasting effects of climate change on the body’s vital systems.

Cardiovascular System

Extreme heat widens blood vessels, flushes fluid out of the bloodstream, and forces the heart to pump two to four times as much blood per minute to cool the body. The result is dehydration, heat’s unfailing sidekick, which thickens the blood and makes it harder to pump.

In the short term, extreme temperatures can lead to heatstroke — when the body’s internal cooling systems can’t keep up and core body temperature rises above 103 degrees F — and heart failure.

Continued exposure to heat waves over the span of many seasons puts repeated strain on the heart, contributing to long-term cardiovascular disease and related deaths. Extreme heat is linked to between 600 and 700 extra deaths from cardiovascular disease in the U.S. every year. These effects are most pronounced in people who work outside and are socioeconomically disadvantaged — generally people who spend more time on average exposed to the elements — though anyone who endures recurring heat waves experiences some level of risk.

Heat is commonly associated with the daytime sun, but studies show that hot nights are even more damaging to human health, robbing our bodies of a crucial window of opportunity to recover from the heat we experienced during the day.

Observational studies have found that nighttime temperatures are increasing at a faster rate than daytime temperatures in much of the world. In China, researchers estimated that hot nights accounted for roughly three times as many heat-related outpatient visits for cardiovascular disease.

A modeling study of countries in East Asia found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue along their current trajectory, hot nights alone could account for nearly 6 percent of all deaths in Japan, South Korea, and China by the end of this century.

Dive deeper

Respiratory System

Nearly half of the world’s population now lives in the wildland-urban interface, where fire-prone wild spaces meet or intermingle with towns and cities. In the U.S., the number of people living in these areas roughly doubled between 1990 and 2010.

At the same time, the atmosphere has become “thirstier” in response to rising temperatures, sucking up moisture and contributing to deep droughts across parts of the planet. As these dry landscapes inevitably ignite, more and more people are breathing in air polluted by wildfire smoke — creating massive sample sizes for researchers to study.

Studies show that the ultrafine particulate matter produced by the trees and shrubs incinerated by wildfires penetrates deep into the lungs and infiltrates the bloodstream, triggering inflammation and reduced lung function and worsening asthma and other chronic respiratory conditions.

When wildfires burn through cities, they send a more unpredictable and potentially even more toxic mix of volatile organic compounds, microplastics, and other pollutants into the air. Recent research shows wildfire smoke can even make rashes like eczema and psoriasis worse by triggering inflammation and drying out the skin.

Smoke isn’t the only respiratory irritant becoming more problematic as climate change accelerates. Extreme heat interacts with sunlight, nitrogen, and volatile organic compounds and speeds the formation of ground-level ozone, a pollutant that inflames the lungs. As higher average annual temperatures bring earlier springs, allergy season is getting longer and more intense in many parts of the world.

More humidity and intensifying extreme weather events also create new footholds for black mold to take root, bringing climate-driven health crises indoors.

Dive deeper

Neurological System

Researchers are discovering that the health consequences of wildfire smoke reach beyond the respiratory system and into the brain, where exposure to particulate matter appears to contribute to neuroinflammation and processes linked to cognitive decline, dementia, and stroke.

Recent studies indicate that babies exposed to wildfire smoke in utero may have a higher risk of developing autism in childhood, though this area of research is still in the early stages.

Extreme heat also impacts how the brain functions. Studies show that students score lower on exams, indoor and outdoor workers make more mistakes that lead to injury, and the elderly experience more confusion in higher temperatures.

These impacts are especially dangerous because they’re so hard to see, but heat has other effects on the brain that are more visible: An assessment of violent crimes in more than 400 U.S. counties found that for every 18-degree F deviation above normal daily temperatures, the rate of violent crime rose roughly 10 percent.

Research has also linked hotter days to higher rates of psychiatric emergency visits, suicide, and worsening symptoms among people with severe mental illnesses such as schizophrenia.

Dive deeper

Reproductive System

Heat exposure during pregnancy increases the risk of preterm birth by as much as 26 percent, though the exact biological mechanism that causes this is still being investigated. Heat exacerbates underlying maternal health conditions such as hypertension and cardiovascular stress.

Extreme heat also affects male fertility: High ambient temperatures negatively impact sperm quality, volume, and movement.

Pregnancy already opens the door to more severe illnesses — climate change is raising the risks even more. For example, pregnant women are three times more likely to develop severe malaria compared to nonpregnant women, a function of the immune system partially suppressing itself to avoid rejecting the fetus during pregnancy.

Hotter temperatures and more extensive flooding are shifting the ranges of disease-carrying mosquitoes, exposing more pregnant people to malaria. In coastal regions with patchy water infrastructure, rising seas are contaminating low-lying freshwater resources with salt and contributing to hypertension in pregnant women, raising the risks of preeclampsia, premature birth, and miscarriage.

Dive deeper

Gastrointestinal System

The gastrointestinal system is especially sensitive to the ways climate change is reshaping water, food, and pathogenic organisms. Warmer temperatures allow many disease-causing bacteria to multiply more quickly in food and coastal waters, increasing the risk of foodborne illness.

At the same time, heavier rainfall and flooding can overwhelm sanitation systems, spreading pathogens that cause diarrheal disease and contaminating drinking water supplies.

In coastal regions, warming seas are enabling marine bacteria such as Vibrio vulnificus, commonly referred to as “flesh-eating bacteria,” to thrive in places they were once rare, raising the odds that raw shellfish or even contact with brackish water can lead to severe infections.

And when extreme drought or floods destroy crops and lead to food shortages, the consequences can affect the gut in another way: malnutrition, which weakens immune defenses and leaves children especially vulnerable to intestinal infections that can stunt growth and long-term health.

Dive deeper

Renal System

Climate-driven health threats are often associated with short-term impacts like disease outbreaks and injuries due to flooding or dangerous winds. But the effect of extreme heat on the kidneys tells a story of chronic impacts that span years. Extended dehydration and heat stress injure these organs over time, triggering acute kidney damage that can progress into chronic kidney disease.

This pattern is already emerging among agricultural workers in some of the hottest parts of the world, where doctors have documented an unusual form of kidney disease affecting people with no typical risk factors like diabetes or hypertension.

It’s not just agricultural workers who are affected by chronic kidney disease. In Nepal, migrant construction workers returning home from months or years of hard outdoor labor in the United Arab Emirates and other extremely hot Gulf countries are bringing chronic kidney conditions back with them.

Dive deeper

Cardiovascular System

Extreme heat widens blood vessels, flushes fluid out of the bloodstream, and forces the heart to pump two to four times as much blood per minute to cool the body. The result is dehydration, heat’s unfailing sidekick, which thickens the blood and makes it harder to pump.

In the short term, extreme temperatures can lead to heatstroke — when the body’s internal cooling systems can’t keep up and core body temperature rises above 103 degrees F — and heart failure.

Continued exposure to heat waves over the span of many seasons puts repeated strain on the heart, contributing to long-term cardiovascular disease and related deaths. Extreme heat is linked to between 600 and 700 extra deaths from cardiovascular disease in the U.S. every year. These effects are most pronounced in people who work outside and are socioeconomically disadvantaged — generally people who spend more time on average exposed to the elements — though anyone who endures recurring heat waves experiences some level of risk.

Heat is commonly associated with the daytime sun, but studies show that hot nights are even more damaging to human health, robbing our bodies of a crucial window of opportunity to recover from the heat we experienced during the day.

Observational studies have found that nighttime temperatures are increasing at a faster rate than daytime temperatures in much of the world. In China, researchers estimated that hot nights accounted for roughly three times as many heat-related outpatient visits for cardiovascular disease.

A modeling study of countries in East Asia found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue along their current trajectory, hot nights alone could account for nearly 6 percent of all deaths in Japan, South Korea, and China by the end of this century.

Dive deeper

Respiratory System

Nearly half of the world’s population now lives in the wildland-urban interface, where fire-prone wild spaces meet or intermingle with towns and cities. In the U.S., the number of people living in these areas roughly doubled between 1990 and 2010.

At the same time, the atmosphere has become “thirstier” in response to rising temperatures, sucking up moisture and contributing to deep droughts across parts of the planet. As these dry landscapes inevitably ignite, more and more people are breathing in air polluted by wildfire smoke — creating massive sample sizes for researchers to study.

Studies show that the ultrafine particulate matter produced by the trees and shrubs incinerated by wildfires penetrates deep into the lungs and infiltrates the bloodstream, triggering inflammation and reduced lung function and worsening asthma and other chronic respiratory conditions.

When wildfires burn through cities, they send a more unpredictable and potentially even more toxic mix of volatile organic compounds, microplastics, and other pollutants into the air. Recent research shows wildfire smoke can even make rashes like eczema and psoriasis worse by triggering inflammation and drying out the skin.

Smoke isn’t the only respiratory irritant becoming more problematic as climate change accelerates. Extreme heat interacts with sunlight, nitrogen, and volatile organic compounds and speeds the formation of ground-level ozone, a pollutant that inflames the lungs. As higher average annual temperatures bring earlier springs, allergy season is getting longer and more intense in many parts of the world.

More humidity and intensifying extreme weather events also create new footholds for black mold to take root, bringing climate-driven health crises indoors.

Dive deeper

Neurological System

Researchers are discovering that the health consequences of wildfire smoke reach beyond the respiratory system and into the brain, where exposure to particulate matter appears to contribute to neuroinflammation and processes linked to cognitive decline, dementia, and stroke.

Recent studies indicate that babies exposed to wildfire smoke in utero may have a higher risk of developing autism in childhood, though this area of research is still in the early stages.

Extreme heat also impacts how the brain functions. Studies show that students score lower on exams, indoor and outdoor workers make more mistakes that lead to injury, and the elderly experience more confusion in higher temperatures.

These impacts are especially dangerous because they’re so hard to see, but heat has other effects on the brain that are more visible: An assessment of violent crimes in more than 400 U.S. counties found that for every 18-degree F deviation above normal daily temperatures, the rate of violent crime rose roughly 10 percent.

Research has also linked hotter days to higher rates of psychiatric emergency visits, suicide, and worsening symptoms among people with severe mental illnesses such as schizophrenia.

Dive deeper

Reproductive System

Heat exposure during pregnancy increases the risk of preterm birth by as much as 26 percent, though the exact biological mechanism that causes this is still being investigated. Heat exacerbates underlying maternal health conditions such as hypertension and cardiovascular stress.

Extreme heat also affects male fertility: High ambient temperatures negatively impact sperm quality, volume, and movement.

Pregnancy already opens the door to more severe illnesses — climate change is raising the risks even more. For example, pregnant women are three times more likely to develop severe malaria compared to nonpregnant women, a function of the immune system partially suppressing itself to avoid rejecting the fetus during pregnancy.

Hotter temperatures and more extensive flooding are shifting the ranges of disease-carrying mosquitoes, exposing more pregnant people to malaria. In coastal regions with patchy water infrastructure, rising seas are contaminating low-lying freshwater resources with salt and contributing to hypertension in pregnant women, raising the risks of preeclampsia, premature birth, and miscarriage.

Dive deeper

Gastrointestinal System

The gastrointestinal system is especially sensitive to the ways climate change is reshaping water, food, and pathogenic organisms. Warmer temperatures allow many disease-causing bacteria to multiply more quickly in food and coastal waters, increasing the risk of foodborne illness.

At the same time, heavier rainfall and flooding can overwhelm sanitation systems, spreading pathogens that cause diarrheal disease and contaminating drinking water supplies.

In coastal regions, warming seas are enabling marine bacteria such as Vibrio vulnificus, commonly referred to as “flesh-eating bacteria,” to thrive in places they were once rare, raising the odds that raw shellfish or even contact with brackish water can lead to severe infections.

And when extreme drought or floods destroy crops and lead to food shortages, the consequences can affect the gut in another way: malnutrition, which weakens immune defenses and leaves children especially vulnerable to intestinal infections that can stunt growth and long-term health.

Dive deeper

Renal System

Climate-driven health threats are often associated with short-term impacts like disease outbreaks and injuries due to flooding or dangerous winds. But the effect of extreme heat on the kidneys tells a story of chronic impacts that span years. Extended dehydration and heat stress injure these organs over time, triggering acute kidney damage that can progress into chronic kidney disease.

This pattern is already emerging among agricultural workers in some of the hottest parts of the world, where doctors have documented an unusual form of kidney disease affecting people with no typical risk factors like diabetes or hypertension.

It’s not just agricultural workers who are affected by chronic kidney disease. In Nepal, migrant construction workers returning home from months or years of hard outdoor labor in the United Arab Emirates and other extremely hot Gulf countries are bringing chronic kidney conditions back with them.

Dive deeper

Israel’s ‘campaign between the wars’: How strategy to contain Iran and its allies risks further straining ties with US

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IwPost

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June 26, 2026

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israel’s-‘campaign-between-the-wars’:-how-strategy-to-contain-iran-and-its-allies-risks-further-straining-ties-with-us — Israel’s ‘campaign between the wars’: How strategy to contain Iran and its allies risks further straining ties with US

A lot hangs on whether the United States can compel Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. After all, an end to the Israeli military offensive was a key provision of the broad U.S.-Iran agreement setting out a road map to end the Iran war.

And even though Israel did not sign the deal, policymakers in Washington will continue to press Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to abide by the truce.

Yet there’s a larger and more vexing issue for the Trump administration and its Arab allies in the Middle East that has received little attention: Israel’s long-standing “campaign between the wars” strategy and whether it threatens the prospect for long-term peace in the region.

The policy, known as “Mivtsa Bein Milchamot” in Hebrew and shortened to “Mabam,” has become a widely accepted facet of Israel’s national security. Its purpose is to degrade the capabilities of Iran and its key regional allies in any interwar period.

As the former assistant director of CIA for Weapons and Counterproliferation, I have watched Israel wage Mabam in an increasingly bold manner and widening geographic scope over the past seven years. Israel has broadened both the targets of the strategy and the instruments it uses to strike them, heightening the risk of escalation.

Save any unexpected abandonment of the policy, Israel will almost certainly continue launching limited military strikes, covert action and cyberattacks across the Middle East, regardless of any U.S. deal with Iran. This will likely take the form of degrading the capabilities of Iran’s partner Hezbollah, Iranian-backed Shiite militants in Iraq and even Tehran’s unreliable ally the Houthis in Yemen. And Israel will remain willing to take military actions short of full-scale war in Iran itself.

But such outcomes will pose serious challenges for the U.S., which seems intent on avoiding a renewed war with Tehran. In fact, Israel’s “campaign between the wars” risks widening the split with Washington and restarting war with Iran and its allies over the long term.

Origins of Mabam

Israel codified the Mabam strategy in a 2015 Israeli Defense Forces document. Its history, however, predates the official adoption of the policy, with the IDF executing “campaign between the wars” operations in the early 2010s.

Most scholars and Israeli military officials acknowledge that the strategy evolved from cross-border “reprisal operations” against Jordan, Egypt, Syria and the Palestinian Liberation Organization in Lebanon in the 1950s and ’60s .

The logic behind Mabam is that by using targeted operations to consistently downgrade the capabilities of Iran and its allies, Israel will be better prepared for future wars by maintaining a qualitative military advantage. Israel’s goal is to avoid escalation by taking actions that it judges Iran and its proxies will view as below the threshold for significant retaliation.

As the former chief of the Israeli general staff and architect of Mabam, Lt. Gen Gadi Eisenkot, explained in 2019: “Deviating from the binary approach of either preparing for war or openly waging it, the [campaign between the wars policy] strives for proactive, offensive actions based on extremely high-quality intelligence and clandestine efforts.”

Two men, one in army garb, stand at a lecturn. — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot at a press conference in Tel Aviv on Dec. 4, 2018. Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

Expanding beyond Syria

In the early 2010s, the Israeli military focused Mabam on Hezbollah in Syria, where the group lacked the advanced military capabilities it possessed in Lebanon and therefore posed a less significant risk of escalation.

Jerusalem placed a premium on degrading Hezbollah’s advanced weapons, supplied by its ally and sponsor Iran, and “preventing the entrenchment of terror infrastructures on the Golan Heights border,” in the words of Israeli military strategist Eran Ortal.

To achieve this, Israel employed airstrikes, cyberattacks, interdictions of weapons and covert action to impede Iran’s ability to resupply Hezbollah’s existing arsenal and supply it with more advanced weapons. Israel’s targets included Iranian facilities and missile warehouses in Syria, convoys and shipments of weapons, and Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard personnel in Syria.

Later in the decade, Israel broadened its objectives to include pressuring the Assad regime in Syria and undercutting the long-standing Iranian-Syrian relationship.

Encouraged by the success of its strategy in Syria, Israel began to take action against Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Lebanon as well.

In summer 2019, Israel reportedly struck the weapons depots of Iranian-back Shiite militant groups in Iraq. Explosive-laden drones that experts trace to Israel targeted equipment linked to Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile program.

With these actions, Israel almost certainly delayed and degraded some adversary capabilities, especially those of Hezbollah. In particular, it stopped or delayed Iranian transfers of precision-guided missiles and the guidance kits that Hezbollah could use to enable such capability, limiting the size of the Lebanese group’s arsenal.

Men in fatigues salute a large banner. — Hezbollah fighters salute a banner in a mountainous area around the Lebanese-Syrian border town of Arsal on July 26, 2017. Anwar Amro/AFP via Getty Images

An imperfect strategy

However, the size and capabilities of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket force show the limits of Israeli effectiveness. The group possessed an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 missiles and rockets prior to the resumption of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in 2026. Israeli officials and pro-Israeli think tanks would make the counterfactual argument that Hezbollah’s arsenal, especially of advanced weapons, would have been much larger without Mabam operations.

Israeli officials refrain from directly connecting the country’s covert action in Iran since the late 2010s to Mabam. But explosions at nuclear, missile and drone facilities and assassinations of scientists outside the direct conflicts of June 2025 and from February 2026 clearly map to the goal of degrading Iranian military capabilities in between wars.

To use one prominent example, an explosion in July 2020 widely linked to Israel disabled a key Iranian advanced centrifuge assembly facility, destroying more than half of the facility.

But the attack had unexpected consequences. Iran was able to rebuild the capability in a matter of months, concentrating on locating future centrifuge assembly capabilities at sites buried deep underground.

A risk to US objectives

In an early 2026 graduation speech for military cadets, Netanyahu declared that Israel would move beyond Mabam to even more actively confront threats. “There is no more containment of threats. There is no more Mabam,” he said after decades of supporting the strategy.

But even a force that conducts a high number of military operations like the IDF needs a strategy short of full-scale war.

And since most in the Israeli security establishment view the Mabam strategy as generally successful in diminishing Iran’s capabilities and those of its partners and proxies, it will likely remain a prominent feature of Israeli strategy even if updated to reflect current perceived threats. This will be the case whether Israel is led by Netanyahu or another leader.

While a central aspect of Mabam is avoiding escalation, this balancing act will be increasingly difficult in today’s Middle East.

To retain U.S. support for Israel’s overall Iran strategy, expanded coordination with Washington will be crucial. Israel has sometimes, but not always, coordinated relevant actions with the U.S. For instance, it allowed the U.S. Central Command to review strikes it planned to launch from near the Al Tanf Base in Syria that hosted U.S. troops until February 2026.

Israel believes it has valid reasons for sometimes conducting military action on its own: Israeli officials view Iran developing a nuclear weapon as an “existential” threat and Hezbollah having a large arsenal of precision-guided missiles as a “strategic threat” to the state of Israel.

However, Washington is likely to ask for wider coordination with Israel in the aftermath of the Iran war. That war ever more tightly connected U.S. security interests to those of Israel, but the ongoing negotiations to end the conflict have shown a rare degree of distance between the two countries. Coordinating its operations short of war will be a bitter pill for Israeli leaders intent on acting as they desire. It also has the potential to further strain Israel-U.S. relations in the years ahead.

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A warming world is putting pressure on every system in your body. Heat waves, wildfire smoke, infectious diseases, and other health threats amplified by climate change are jeopardizing decades of public health gains. As temperatures rise, experts warn that everyone is at risk.

Cardiovascular System

Respiratory System

Neurological System

Reproductive System

Gastrointestinal System

Renal System

Cardiovascular System

Respiratory System

Neurological System

Reproductive System

Gastrointestinal System

Renal System

Origins of Mabam

Expanding beyond Syria

An imperfect strategy

A risk to US objectives

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A warming world is putting pressure on every system in your body.

Heat waves, wildfire smoke, infectious diseases, and other health threats amplified by climate change are jeopardizing decades of public health gains. As temperatures rise, experts warn that everyone is at risk.