At Abu Dhabi’s Hili Forum, Nickolay Mladenov delivered a blunt warning: Gaza’s proposed path out of war could collapse if Israel launches another major offensive. In their detailed report, Waseem Abu Mahadi and Jacob Wirtschafter show how an already fragile plan for Hamas’ disarmament, an Israeli withdrawal, Palestinian civilian administration, and reconstruction has become entangled with Israeli election politics and the wider Iran conflict.
Mladenov, the Board of Peace’s high representative for Gaza, said another offensive would make Gulf governments unwilling to finance rebuilding and force Israel to assume direct responsibility for the territory. “It would certainly exclude anyone in the Gulf, be that the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, anyone else, [from] financing any reconstruction in Gaza,” he said.
The money is substantial on paper and elusive in practice. The UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait have pledged a combined $4.2 billion, part of $17 billion promised by the US and other countries. Gaza’s needs are far larger: A joint European Union, United Nations, and World Bank assessment put the 10-year recovery and reconstruction bill at $71.4 billion. Little funding has been disbursed, and few projects have advanced beyond clearing rubble.
At the core lies a sequencing dispute. Israeli officials say no troops will withdraw and no rebuilding can proceed before Hamas is fully disarmed. The Board’s roadmap links disarmament to a phased Israeli withdrawal and the handover of civilian governance to a Palestinian technocratic committee. Hamas has described its own acceptance as conditional. The committee remains in Cairo, no international stabilization force has deployed, and Israel controls more than half of Gaza.
The conflict with Iran has made the political terrain still more difficult. Gulf governments are concentrating on Iranian attacks, the Strait of Hormuz, alternative energy routes, and doubts about US security commitments. Emirati and Qatari officials at the forum called for stronger regional self-reliance, while Gaza slipped down the agenda.
Abu Mahadi and Wirtschafter also trace Palestinian concerns that decisions about Gaza are being made without Palestinians at the table. With legislative elections scheduled for Nov. 28 and Israel’s vote due a month earlier, the full report is worth reading for its portrait of a reconstruction effort caught between war, politics, and a rapidly changing regional order.
