From pro-Netanyahu broadcasters to liberal newspapers and the religious press, competing forecasts range from a renewed right-wing government to another parliamentary stalemate

Five days before Israelis vote for their next Knesset, the country’s news media are presenting remarkably different pictures of the election. In much of the mainstream press, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is heading for a first-place finish, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is struggling to retain power, and another political deadlock is a serious possibility. In the pro-Netanyahu media, the prime minister is substantially ahead, and his right-wing and religious allies may already have enough support to form another government.

Yet beneath those conflicting headlines lies one important point of agreement: The election is exceptionally difficult to predict, and winning the largest number of seats does not necessarily mean winning the premiership.

A survey of polling and political reporting in Channel 12, Channel 13, Kan, i24NEWS, Israel Hayom, Ynet, Walla, The Times of Israel, Zman Yisrael, and the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 reveals a striking divide. Channel 14’s latest survey gives Netanyahu’s bloc 62 seats, enough for a narrow parliamentary majority. Most other major surveys place his bloc well below the 61 seats needed to govern, but do not give his opponents a clear majority either.

There is also an important timing qualification. The final pre-election weekend is October 23–24, and the last Friday newspaper editions and television broadcasts have not yet appeared. This survey therefore examines the reporting, polls, and editorial positions available through Thursday evening, rather than treating forthcoming weekend commentary as already published.

What the Latest Polls Actually Say

SELECTED POLLS AVAILABLE OCTOBER 22

Seats out of 120. The 61-seat line is the majority threshold. Figures use each outlet’s own bloc classification where available; the Arab parties and, in several surveys, the Hendel–Zelicha list are counted separately. The Zman Yisrael survey was released October 22 but its fieldwork was conducted October 14–15.

Netanyahu bloc: published seat projections

The October 21 Channel 14 survey is the only one in this selection giving Netanyahu a majority.

These are not minor disagreements over one or two seats. Channel 14 gives Likud 30 seats and its allies a parliamentary majority. Channel 13 gives Likud just 19 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc only 49. Both cannot be accurate descriptions of the electorate.

Some caution is necessary when interpreting polling averages. Different polling organizations use different methodologies, and the ideological composition of their samples may differ. Independent aggregators also produce divergent averages depending on which polling organizations they include and how they weight them. For that reason, comparing the actual published polls is more illuminating than choosing a single poll-of-polls figure and presenting it as a definitive forecast.

There are, however, three broad patterns. Most polling organizations place Eisenkot’s Yashar first, typically with 20–24 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud leads in the consistently more favorable polls published by Channel 14 and i24NEWS. And even where anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties collectively outnumber Netanyahu’s bloc, they generally fall short of forming a government without additional partners.

How the Different Media Camps Are Covering the Race

The mainstream and center: Eisenkot leads, but a victory may not produce a government

The strongest common theme in Channel 12, Channel 13, Kan, Ynet, Walla, and much of the reporting carried by Maariv is the growing distinction between an electoral victory and the ability to govern.

An October 21 polling comparison published by Maariv and carried by The Jerusalem Post averaged the Channel 12, Channel 13, Kan, and Walla surveys. It found Eisenkot’s Yashar averaging 22.5 seats, compared with 19.75 for Likud. But the larger blocs remained close: approximately 50 seats for Netanyahu’s allies and 53 for the Zionist opposition. Neither was close to a majority.

Ynet goes further than merely reporting those figures. In an October 21 analysis updated ahead of Thursday, political reporters Moran Azulay and Saar Hess assessed several possible governing arrangements and assigned them probabilities. They rated a Netanyahu-led right-wing government as unlikely, an Eisenkot-led change government as unlikely, and various unity and minority-government arrangements as very unlikely.

Their highest-probability scenario was another election, potentially in 2027.

Israel Hayom provides a particularly interesting counterpoint. Despite its longstanding reputation as a newspaper sympathetic to Netanyahu, its October 22 poll, conducted by Kantar, places Eisenkot first with 23 seats, Likud second with 21, and Netanyahu’s bloc at only 50. Bennett’s Beyachad alliance rises to 14 seats. The paper’s reporting therefore does not fit the assumption that every right-leaning outlet is predicting a Netanyahu victory.

The Jerusalem Post, which generally approaches Israeli politics from a center-right perspective, has emphasized both the polling disagreement and the difficulties facing either potential prime minister. Its October 21 coverage described a near-tie between the blocs in the mainstream polling average, while a separate report examined how Netanyahu might retain power even without winning 61 seats.

The pro-Netanyahu right: A majority may be within reach

Channel 14 is the clearest exception to the prevailing polling picture.

Its October 21 survey, conducted by Shlomo Filber’s NEXT DATA, puts Likud on 30 seats, Eisenkot’s Yashar on 20, and Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc on 62.

That result would allow Netanyahu, in principle, to form another government with parties already aligned with him, without recruiting an opposition faction. Channel 14’s broader election coverage is also strongly favorable to Netanyahu.

The difference goes beyond numerical forecasts. The independent media watchdog The Seventh Eye reported on October 16 that Channel 14 had continued excluding opposition politicians from its interviews in September. Across the five major television news channels, the watchdog found that 52% of political interviews featured representatives of Netanyahu’s camp, compared with 42% for his opponents. The figures measure airtime, not formal endorsements, and include coverage of sitting government figures.

i24NEWS provides a less decisive but still relatively Netanyahu-friendly polling picture. Its October 20 Direct Polls survey puts Likud first on 26 seats and the Netanyahu bloc on 58. That makes Netanyahu significantly stronger than in Channel 12 or Channel 13’s surveys, but it still leaves him three seats short of a majority.

The left: Opposition to Netanyahu does not resolve the coalition problem

Haaretz’s editorial position is unmistakably critical of Netanyahu and his government, particularly concerning democratic institutions, the judiciary, the conduct of the war, and the country’s future direction.

That position should not, however, be confused with a formal endorsement of Eisenkot, Bennett, or Yair Golan’s Democrats. I could not verify an unequivocal institutional endorsement of one of those parties in the material published through October 22.

The distinction is particularly relevant because the anti-Netanyahu electorate is divided among parties with different ideological commitments. A preference for replacing Netanyahu does not establish agreement over who should lead the replacement government, whether Arab parties should participate, or whether any compromise with Likud would be acceptable.

What the Religious and Haredi Press Is Saying

Some of the most revealing reporting comes from the religious press, where the principal question is not simply whether Netanyahu has enough votes, but whether the parties traditionally counted in his camp will remain united.

The national-religious weekly Besheva published an unusually explicit forecast on October 22. Political correspondent Amiel Yarchi argued that, absent a last-minute surprise, neither bloc would be able to assemble a government. He suggested that politicians were already positioning themselves for the election that might follow this one.

Yarchi identified Avigdor Liberman and Yitshak Goldknop, a senior United Torah Judaism figure, as potential decision-makers. Liberman’s refusal to support a government dependent on Arab-party votes could prevent Eisenkot from governing. Meanwhile, tensions between Netanyahu and Goldknop could complicate even a narrow right-wing majority.

This is a significant finding: A commentator writing in a national-religious, right-leaning publication is openly anticipating another round of elections.

Arutz Sheva, another national-religious outlet, has published competing polls and explored a different escape route from deadlock. Political scientist Prof. Avi Diskin told the outlet that greater turnout among Arab voters could change the election’s arithmetic, but that a Netanyahu–Eisenkot partnership might eventually become possible. He presented it as a plausible scenario, not a confirmed agreement or a prediction of an immediate coalition.

Makor Rishon, the conservative national-religious newspaper, has also examined the possibility of alternative coalition arrangements, including involving Bennett, as politicians confront the possibility of another election. These remain speculative arrangements dependent on leaders reversing their commitments.

In the Haredi media, one of the most consequential developments concerns the traditional party newspapers.

Political commentator Avi Ravina told Haredi radio station Kol Chai on October 12 that Yated Neeman and HaMevaser were giving substantial election coverage to United Torah Judaism, while HaModia, associated with the Ger Hasidic movement, had conspicuously failed to mobilize readers in the customary fashion.

Ravina connected the difference to internal Hasidic tensions and reported concerns that some disillusioned Haredi voters might stay home. He cited figures suggesting that as many as 10% of Haredi voters could abstain, although that figure should be treated as a reported political assessment rather than a verified turnout forecast.

Even JDN, a Haredi news outlet, is not uniformly optimistic about Netanyahu’s prospects. Its October 19 election model, drawing on 13 polls from eight polling organizations, projected 58 seats for the existing coalition parties, 47 for the Zionist opposition, and 15 for the Arab parties.

The analysis focused heavily on votes potentially lost to parties below the electoral threshold, especially smaller right-wing lists.

For Shas, the affiliated newspaper HaDerech belongs to a different category from an independent newspaper offering an editorial endorsement: Its institutional political identification is with the party itself. Similarly, Yated Neeman and HaMevaser have longstanding factional loyalties. Such ties are more useful for understanding their electoral messages than treating each publication as an independent forecaster.

Which Outlets Are Actually Endorsing Candidates?

The distinction between institutional endorsement, political sympathy, and ordinary election coverage is important.

The most defensible answer is therefore that formal endorsements are much less prominent in the mainstream Israeli news media than ideological sympathies and commentary. The clearest institutional party allegiances are found in the factional Haredi press.

This table does not purport to cover every individual columnist. A Channel 12 commentator, a Haaretz opinion writer, or a Jerusalem Post columnist may publicly advocate for a candidate without that position representing the organization as a whole.

Who Thinks a Government Will Be Formed Quickly—and Who Expects Another Election?

Three identifiable strands of prediction emerge from the reporting.

The Netanyahu-majority scenario: Channel 14’s 62-seat projection is the clearest numerical basis for a relatively straightforward Netanyahu-led coalition. The parties in that bloc have established political relationships, making it a simpler governing formula than any currently apparent Eisenkot coalition.

But it would be an overstatement to say that Channel 14 has established that Netanyahu will quickly form a government. A single survey is not an election result, 62 is a slender majority, and internal negotiations over portfolios, military conscription, and coalition policy could still be difficult.

The Netanyahu-survives-without-a-majority scenario: In an October 12 Jerusalem Post analysis, Anna Barsky reported that some Likud officials privately considered 55 or 56 seats an important target, even if Netanyahu failed to reach 61. Their calculation was that such a bloc could prevent his rivals from governing, leaving him in office as caretaker prime minister while they sought either a coalition partner or another election.

The same report identified Bennett as a potential recruit, but said no negotiations with him had taken place. It is a description of a Likud strategy, not evidence that Bennett intends to join Netanyahu.

The renewed-deadlock scenario: Ynet’s October 21–22 assessment is the clearest published forecast that another election is more probable than any of the plausible coalition alternatives. Besheva’s October 22 commentary reaches a similar conclusion from a national-religious perspective. The Jerusalem Post’s polling comparisons, JDN’s election model, and the surveys from Kan, Walla, and the major commercial broadcasters also provide numerical reasons to take deadlock seriously, even where the outlets do not explicitly forecast a new election.

As of Thursday evening, I did not find a comparably well-substantiated, explicit forecast from a major outlet that an Eisenkot-led government will be formed quickly. Polls giving Eisenkot first place do not demonstrate that the necessary coalition exists.

Why Forming an Eisenkot Government Would Be So Difficult

The essential obstacle is the arithmetic of the Arab parties.

The Joint List and Ra’am together are projected to win approximately 13–15 seats in many recent surveys. That means there may be enough legislators opposed to Netanyahu to deny him a majority while still lacking a viable alternative governing coalition.

Eisenkot’s bloc could theoretically secure the votes needed to form a government through cooperation with some Arab-party legislators, either inside a coalition or through outside support.

But Liberman has rejected a minority government reliant on Arab-party votes. Bennett has also rejected relying on Ra’am. Eisenkot himself has ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led government, including under a rotation arrangement.

Ynet’s analysis judged these commitments sufficiently restrictive that every coalition alternative was unlikely or very unlikely.

The Arabic-language press, including Arab48 and Panet/Hala TV, has followed the same polling and paid particular attention to the Arab parties’ expected representation and the possible consequences of higher Arab turnout. Arab48 also reported a Maariv survey showing that Israelis preferred a unity government to another election if neither side achieved a majority.

That public preference is important, but it is not a forecast that unity will happen. The October 16 Maariv survey found that approximately 55% preferred unity, compared with 27% favoring another election. Political leaders, however, have to reach agreements that voters do not.

A second uncertainty is the 3.25% electoral threshold. Parties such as Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists-Economic alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha are close enough to the threshold in some polls to change the distribution of seats materially.

If one list enters the Knesset while another falls short, the difference may be four or more seats, enough to change the coalition calculations. The latest Israel Hayom, Channel 12, Channel 13, Walla, and Channel 14 polls disagree substantially about which of these smaller parties will win representation.

Finally, even if the electorate gives one leader a clear relative advantage, the process of forming a government is not immediate. The president must consult party representatives and select a Knesset member to attempt to form a coalition. The initial period is generally 28 days, potentially extendable by 14 days, with further constitutional procedures if that attempt fails.

Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in, even if Likud finishes second.

The Big-Picture Consensus

The Israeli press has no genuine consensus about whether Eisenkot or Netanyahu will win the largest number of seats. Channel 14 and i24NEWS substantially favor Likud, while most of the other recent published polls favor Eisenkot.

There is, however, a stronger consensus concerning the difficulty of assembling a majority.

Across much of the mainstream press, in the national-religious Besheva, and in Haredi polling analysis, the central concern is that the election may replace one parliamentary impasse with another. Netanyahu has a cohesive set of potential coalition partners but, in most surveys, too few seats. Eisenkot may command the largest individual party and a larger anti-Netanyahu parliamentary camp, but his possible partners do not agree on the terms of governing.

Channel 14’s polling provides the principal counterargument: Netanyahu may already have the 61 seats required and could simply renew his right-wing coalition.

The outcome may therefore hinge on a relatively small number of votes, the electoral survival of minor parties, turnout in Arab and Haredi communities, and whether politicians honor the coalition red lines they have drawn during the campaign.

The most revealing possibility is that both leading camps could claim an election victory on October 27, while neither is able to govern. In that event, the political contest will not have ended when the polls close. It will merely have moved from the ballot box to the negotiations over the next government.