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Life in Gaza after 12 months of ‘ceasefire’

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Life in Gaza after 12 months of ‘ceasefire’

It’s one year since the US-brokered ceasefire for Gaza formally came into effect. On October 9 2025, Hamas handed over the 20 remaining hostages and the bodies of four Israelis who had died while being held captive. In return, Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.

The ceasefire officially began the following day, October 10, and humanitarian aid began to trickle into the beleaguered Palestinian territory. The UN security council formally endorsed the 20-point plan for the ceasefire and reconstruction of Gaza with Resolution 2803 on November 17.

At the time, the US president hailed it on his TruthSocial platform as “a moment of true historic proportion”. Yet 12 months on, the Israeli army continues to occupy Gaza, the Palestinian death toll continues to climb, and there is no sign of any lasting resolution.

By any possible metric, the situation in Gaza is catastrophic. About 94% of the population are in need of shelter – that’s nearly 2 million people. More than 1.4 million face crisis-level hunger or worse.

There’s a plague of rats and other vermin biting children and spreading disease. This is because three years of Israeli military assault has almost completely destroyed Gaza’s sanitation infrastructure, while also leaving much of the population with inadequate access to clean water.

Much of Gaza remains in ruins. Israel has destroyed 92% of its housing, 95% of its farmland, all of its universities and half of its hospitals – with the remainder barely functioning.

The UN has estimated that clearing the rubble alone could take 20 years – while the cost of rebuilding Gaza is estimated at more than US$70 billion (£53 billion).

There has been no progress on this front over the past year – reflecting a lack of political will from Israel and the US-led international community.

Ceasefire in name only

When the agreement was announced, Trump said it would end “3,000 years” of war. But in reality, the violence has continued.

Israeli forces have launched more than 1,000 attacks on Gaza over the past 12 months, killing more than 1,400 Palestinians – including at least 300 children. For the Palestinians, it is a ceasefire in name only.

Israeli violence is accompanied by a continuing blockade, which is responsible for many of the dire conditions described above. Despite the crisis, Israel continues to keep many essential supplies out of Gaza, leading the UN secretary-general, António Guterres, to flag the severe restriction of humanitarian aid as a major concern.

As well as destroying much of Gaza, Israel has also extended its occupation on the ground over the past 12 months. The terms of the deal proposed the Israeli military’s phased withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. The army initially redeployed to the yellow line: a newly established boundary that cut the Strip in two.

This confined virtually the entire population of two million Palestinians to around 60 square miles on its western side.

The yellow line was intended as a temporary measure. But Israeli officials have described it as “a new border”. Any Palestinian who crosses the line or even gets close to it risks being shot by the Israeli army. More than 200 people were killed in this way in the first six months after the ceasefire was announced.

Making matters worse still, the line’s exact location is unclear. It is indicated on the ground by yellow blocks that the Israeli military continually moves further west, extending its de facto territory.

Israel is now in full control of more than 65% of the strip, and government figures – including Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz – have explicitly stated that Israel “will never leave all of Gaza”.

A Palestinian woman cries while people look on. One is filming her on a mobile phone.

Relatives mourn the death of an eight-year-old boy in an Israeli airstrike. EPA/Mohammed Saber

This is especially striking given the ongoing campaign to re-establish illegal Israeli settlements inside Gaza – a campaign backed by some cabinet ministers.

‘Nowhere to return’

The terms of the UN-approved ceasefire deal stated explicitly that: “No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.” But the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, reportedly told lawmakers inside the Knesset, Israel’s parliament in May 2025 that Israel is “destroying more and more houses [in Gaza so that Palestinians] have nowhere to return”, adding: “The only obvious result will be Gazans choosing to emigrate outside of the Strip.”

These alleged remarks were leaked from a closed session of the Knesset – and this was well before the terms of the ceasefire were agreed. But in recent weeks both Katz and Israel’s national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, have endorsed plans for the mass forced expulsion of Gaza’s Palestinians – and Netanyahu has done nothing to condemn them.

Such plans would expel people who have already been displaced an average of six times during the three-year Israeli assault, identified as a genocide by a growing number of international observers and experts.

With Israelis preparing to go to the polls for the first time since the October 7 attacks, candidates are making increasingly extreme statements – a reflection of a shift to the right, particularly among first-time voters.

It would be foolish to assume that the election on October 27 will bring any real change in Israel’s Gaza policy. Both Netanyahu and his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, are implacable opponents of Palestinian statehood.

So only international pressure – particularly from the US – can bring about a change in Israeli policy towards the people of Gaza and their future. But with the Trump administration itself reported to favour the transfer of Palestinians, few in Gaza are expecting any help from Washington in the foreseeable future.

Guilfoyle resigns as ambassador to Greece – adding to the global vacancies sapping US embassies

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Guilfoyle resigns as ambassador to Greece – adding to the global vacancies sapping US embassies

The United States is down one more ambassador. On Oct. 13, 2026, it emerged that President Donald Trump had asked Kimberly Guilfoyle, a MAGA loyalist and ex-fiancée of Trump’s son Donald Jr., to resign her position as U.S. ambassador to Greece, a NATO ally. It follows allegations that the Trump adviser turned diplomat pushed for a Republican donor to pay off her six-figure American Express bill.

Guilfoyle later confirmed that she would comply with the request and resigned. In so doing, Athens became one of a number of U.S. overseas missions with a vacancy at the top. In fact, 93 out of 196 U.S. ambassador jobs are currently unfilled.

And that is after U.S. senators confirmed 10 new ambassadors before leaving town on Sept. 30, 2026. Among those nodded through before Congress closed for an extended midterm recess were new U.S. ambassadors for Kenya, Nicaragua, Malaysia and Kyrgyzstan.

With some of the vacancies the White House has not even sent names to Capitol Hill, despite the second Trump administration being a year and a half into the job. With others, the Senate, which is controlled by the same party as the White House, hasn’t acted on the names put forward. Should the Athens position be added to the list, the reason will be down to potential insufficient vetting or an ill-advised appointing strategy that promotes loyalty over experience.

Regardless of the reason, as a former ambassador and an expert in the process of diplomacy, I find the current vacancies concerning. Among those embassies still without a top person in place are key partners for the U.S. – countries that Washington needs to achieve its security, economic and strategic objectives.

What makes these vacancies more worrying, in my view, is that they come amid other concerning developments in the State Department’s staffing of embassies.

Politicizing diplomacy

Chief among them are the high percentage of politically appointed ambassadors relative to positions filled by career diplomats – that is, senior foreign service officers, usually with at least 20 years of diplomatic experience.

Though many countries send politicians abroad as ambassadors, America’s diplomatic service is unique in two ways. The percentage of U.S. ambassadors who are political appointees – those who haven’t followed a career civil service path – is higher than comparative countries across the world. Second, those political appointees are often donors with little to no government experience.

The practice has existed for decades, but in recent years the number of political appointees has increased. During the Obama administration, the percentage of political appointees was around 30%. The number rose to around 40% in the first Trump administration and the subsequent Biden administration.

But in Trump’s second term, some 80% of names the White House has sent to the Senate have been political.

And many of the people Trump has put forward don’t appear to have the credentials usually associated with holding important diplomatic positions. Rather, many are friends, associates or donors to Trump, often with little overseas experience or knowledge of the country they are going to.

Lee Lipton, ambassador to a key ally in the Philippines, is owner of a restaurant in Palm Beach – Florida Benny’s on the Beach – a member of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club and a contributor to his political campaign.

The system of political appointees has always had an element of handing ambassadorships to friends and supporters. But what has changed under Trump is the range of positions now available. In the past, ambassadors to key countries like Chile, Israel, Peru, the Philippines, Turkey and Egypt, for example, have almost always been career appointees. This has changed under the second Trump administration.

Appointing noncareer diplomats to small, faraway nations has the additional problem that the chosen individual may not actually spend much time there. The rule of thumb has long been that ambassadors should spend no more than one month every year back in the United States. But that is compromised if a noncareer diplomat with expansive business ties in the U.S. is selected.

The role of a deputy

A closely related problem is the State Department’s handling of an ambassador’s second in command, their deputy chiefs of missions – DCMs for short – under Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

During Trump’s first term in the White House, politically appointed ambassadors were often encouraged to swap out the DCMs they inherited from their predecessors. It meant going through a long hiring process, leaving those key jobs unfilled for months.

In 2025, the State Department went further, canceling the assignments of senior officers en route to take up embassy jobs and opening a new hiring process.

It formed part of a Trump purge of what many MAGA Republicans characterized as a “deep state” civil service. The reality is that DCMs fill a critically important role in helping political appointees navigate the bureaucracy and implement their policy ideas, as well as raising the occasional reality check.

With more politically appointed ambassadors – some of them with no relevant experience – having an experienced DCM can be the difference between success and failure.

Looking for other friends

When you put all of these personnel changes together, the result is the degradation of what was once seen as one of the most effective diplomatic services in the world.

What makes this potentially more worrying is where the vacancies are. For example, Belarus and Bulgaria, neighbors to Russia and Ukraine, are without U.S. ambassadors. And important countries in the fight against terrorism or in geopolitical hot spots, such as Kuwait, Qatar and Mauritania, are in the same camp.

Other countries still without ambassadors include Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest nation and the most populous Muslim-majority country in the world; key Middle East ally Egypt and nuclear power Pakistan; and nations the U.S. needs to help manage inward migration, such us Haiti and Guatemala.

The problem of absent or inexperienced ambassadors goes both ways. It means Washington may not have a capable diplomatic figurehead in these countries to contact in times of need. There are also fewer avenues for host nations to successfully convey messages back to the U.S. administration.

When faced with absent ambassadors, amateurish political appointees and deputy mission chiefs who are very junior or career appointees with short resumes, host countries may conclude that they aren’t seen as important to the U.S. and start looking elsewhere for friends.

And the U.S. has hollowed out its ambassadorial corps at a time when it is facing growing international influence by the likes of Russia, China and Iran – rival nations hoping to capitalize on a perceived diplomatic void left by Washington.

For example, as the U.S. tries to contain Beijing’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region, Fiji, Indonesia and Laos remain without U.S. ambassadors. Similarly, China’s diplomatic relations with Pakistan – a former key security partner for Washington – have grown while the ambassadorial seat in Islamabad remains empty.

And former Soviet states including Georgia and Kazakhstan don’t have U.S. ambassadors even as Russia President Vladimir Putin attempts to consolidate Moscow’s regional influence.

In large areas of the world, such as Africa and the Pacific region, and in important areas of policy, the lights may be on in U.S. embassies, but nobody’s home. And that is a distinct problem for national security and strategic interests.

This is an updated version of an article originally published on Oct. 7, 2026.

‘Tiger King’ Star Carole Baskin Defends Tiger After Deadly Zoo Attack

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‘Tiger King’ Star Carole Baskin Defends Tiger After Deadly Zoo Attack


“Tiger King” star Carole Baskin is speaking out after a tiger fatally mauled a man at a British wildlife park, insisting the animal was simply following its natural instincts and should not be punished for the tragedy.

The outspoken animal rights activist defended the tiger after Saturday’s horrifying incident at Yorkshire Wildlife Park in Doncaster, England, where a man died after entering an enclosure housing endangered Amur tigers, also known as Siberian tigers.

“The tiger was not doing anything wrong by being a tiger. I am relieved to hear that the animal was not harmed,” Baskin told the New York Post in a written statement.

The tragedy unfolded on October 10, when South Yorkshire Police received reports of a man inside the tiger enclosure at approximately 1:35 p.m. local time.

The tiger attacked the man, leaving him with devastating injuries. Two ambulances, an air ambulance and a doctor responded, but emergency workers were unable to save him. He was pronounced dead at the scene.

Authorities have not publicly identified the victim or explained how he managed to enter the restricted area. His family has been notified and is receiving support from specially trained officers.

Baskin, who became a household name through Netflix’s hit documentary series “Tiger King,” expressed sympathy for the victim’s loved ones while urging the public not to blame the animal.

“My heart goes out to the family and loved ones of the man who lost his life today at Yorkshire Wildlife Park,” she said.

She also warned against jumping to conclusions before investigators determine exactly what happened.

“We don’t yet know all the circumstances that led to this man’s death, and it would be wrong to speculate,” Baskin explained.

The 65-year-old animal advocate emphasized that even tigers accustomed to human activity remain dangerous predators whose instincts cannot simply be trained away.

The tiger involved in the attack has since been identified as Altai, a male Amur tiger living at the park.

In an important update Sunday, October 11, wildlife park officials confirmed that Altai was unharmed and would not be euthanized.

The park reassured concerned members of the public that the tiger was safe and well, putting an end to speculation about whether the animal might be put down following the fatal encounter.

The park was evacuated immediately after the attack and remained closed Sunday. Officials said employees affected by the incident would receive specialist support.

Police also confirmed there was no continuing danger to visitors because the tiger had remained inside its enclosure.

Disturbing videos of the incident circulated across social media, prompting South Yorkshire Police to ask the public not to share the footage out of respect for those involved.

The wildlife park, which opened in 2009, introduced its Land of the Tigers attraction in 2011. The exhibit features a specially designed, two-acre habitat for Amur tigers, one of the world’s most endangered big cats.

Baskin, who leads Florida-based animal welfare organization Big Cat Rescue, said the tragedy highlights the risks associated with keeping powerful wild animals in captivity.

She hopes the incident will encourage greater awareness of the dangers facing both people and captive wildlife.

Baskin became internationally famous in 2020 after appearing in Netflix’s “Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem and Madness,” which documented her bitter feud with Oklahoma zoo operator Joe Exotic.

Exotic was later convicted in a federal murder-for-hire plot targeting Baskin, along with wildlife-related offenses. Their feud made Baskin one of the documentary’s most recognizable personalities.

Now, six years after the series became a worldwide sensation, Baskin is once again defending a big cat caught in the middle of a human tragedy.

For investigators, the central unanswered question remains how the man gained access to the enclosure in the first place.

While authorities continue examining the circumstances surrounding his death, wildlife park officials have made one decision clear: Altai will not lose his life over the attack.

Terry Bradshaw, 78, Reveals Shocking Mental Health Struggles

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Terry Bradshaw, 78, Reveals Shocking Mental Health Struggles


NFL legend Terry Bradshaw spent years entertaining millions of football fans with his booming personality and quick sense of humor. But behind the scenes, the four-time Super Bowl champion was fighting a deeply personal battle that even those closest to him didn’t always understand.

Now, at 78, the former Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback is opening up about his lifelong struggles with anxiety, emotional turmoil and clinical depression, revealing just how difficult it was to admit he needed help.

In his new memoir, Looking for Terry, released Tuesday, October 13, Bradshaw pulls back the curtain on a life that has included extraordinary professional success, painful personal setbacks and serious health challenges.

Speaking to People alongside his wife, Tammy, at their horse-breeding ranch in Saint Jo, Texas, the Pro Football Hall of Famer admitted that confronting his mental health was among the hardest things he has ever done.

Growing up in Shreveport, Louisiana, Bradshaw says he experienced symptoms he now associates with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, or ADHD, although he was never diagnosed as a child.

As his football career took off during the 1970s, he also began experiencing anxiety attacks and dramatic emotional highs and lows.

But in an era when professional athletes were expected to appear strong and emotionally invulnerable, Bradshaw kept those struggles largely to himself.

“You didn’t talk about it,” he told People, recalling the stigma surrounding mental health during his playing days.

Despite leading the Steelers to four Super Bowl victories and becoming one of the NFL’s biggest stars, Bradshaw continued battling emotions he struggled to understand.

It wasn’t until the late 1990s, years after retiring from football, that he received a formal diagnosis of clinical depression.

By then, he had successfully transitioned into broadcasting, eventually becoming one of the most recognizable personalities on Fox NFL Sunday.

Yet professional success did not make his depression disappear.

Bradshaw eventually sought help from a therapist, psychiatrist and pastor, a decision he says changed the way he understood his condition.

Admitting that he needed professional support was especially difficult because of the pressure he felt to live up to the image of a tough, successful athlete.

For years, he had believed acknowledging emotional struggles would make him appear weak.

Now, he sees things differently.

“There’s nothing wrong with admitting you’ve got issues,” Bradshaw said.

His wife, Tammy Bradshaw, whom he married in 2014, has become one of his greatest sources of support.

The couple has even developed an unusual way of discussing his difficult days.

They call his depression “Roy.”

When Bradshaw begins feeling overwhelmed or emotionally withdrawn, Tammy sometimes recognizes the change before he says anything.

She told People that she can see it in his eyes when he is struggling.

Rather than allowing the moment to pass without acknowledgment, the couple talks about “Roy” coming to visit.

The nickname gives them a way to recognize Bradshaw’s symptoms without making every difficult conversation feel overwhelming.

On particularly challenging days, Bradshaw tells his wife that he isn’t feeling well emotionally.

Tammy responds by talking with him, spending time together or finding activities that help him reconnect with the things he enjoys.

The former quarterback credits her understanding with helping him become more comfortable discussing his feelings instead of trying to hide them.

“Men think that’s a weakness,” Bradshaw explained. “I got past it being a weakness. It’s a sickness.”

The couple’s bond has also helped him navigate other major health challenges.

Bradshaw previously revealed that he was diagnosed with bladder cancer in 2021 and a rare form of skin cancer known as Merkel cell carcinoma in 2022.

He underwent treatment for both conditions and later shared his experiences publicly after fans noticed changes in his appearance and physical condition during television broadcasts.

Those health battles added another difficult chapter to a life already marked by injuries, three divorces and years of mental health struggles.

But slowing down does not appear to be part of Bradshaw’s immediate plans.

He continues working in television and has discussed remaining with Fox NFL Sunday through the network’s coverage of the 2029 Super Bowl, when he will be 80.

Away from the studio, he has found a quieter kind of happiness at the 155-acre Texas ranch he and Tammy purchased in 2023.

The couple spends much of their time raising and breeding horses, an activity Bradshaw says brings him a sense of peace.

His memoir also revisits the highs and lows of his remarkable football career, including his complicated relationship with longtime Steelers coach Chuck Noll.

In a separate interview with the Los Angeles Times, Bradshaw discussed how difficult it had been to speak publicly about depression, revealing that some friends mocked him when he first opened up about his diagnosis.

Still, he says hearing from fans who appreciated his honesty convinced him that sharing his experiences was worthwhile.

For Bradshaw, the purpose of Looking for Terry extends beyond recounting football championships and television success.

He hopes readers will recognize that depression can affect anyone, including people who appear happy, accomplished and confident.

The NFL legend also wants others who are struggling to understand the importance of seeking professional care and leaning on trusted loved ones.

After decades of feeling pressure to conceal his emotional pain, Bradshaw has reached a point where he is comfortable discussing it openly.

And despite everything he has endured, he remains proud of the progress he has made.

“I’m proud of myself for making it through and surviving,” he said.

Pumpkin Turkey Chili

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Pumpkin Turkey Chili
Pumpkin Turkey Chili topped with sour cream, pale green pepitas, cilantro, black beans, and kidney beans.
Pumpkin Turkey Chili brings ground turkey, beans, pumpkin, smoky spices, sour cream, and toasted pepitas together in one hearty bowl.

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Pumpkin Turkey Chili brings ground turkey, black beans, kidney beans, tomatoes, peppers, and pumpkin together in a thick, cozy pot made for cool-weather dinners. The pumpkin quietly does two jobs: it gives the broth extra body and rounds out the smoky spices without making the chili noticeably sweet.

Ground turkey browns first, then onion and bell pepper soften before garlic, tomato paste, chili powder, cumin, smoked paprika, and oregano build the savory base. Pumpkin puree melts into the tomatoes and broth as everything simmers, creating a rich texture without cream or flour.

The finishing crunch makes this bowl especially good. Pepitas toast quickly with smoked paprika, then get tossed with lime zest for a salty, crisp contrast to the tender beans and turkey. Add a spoonful of sour cream and fresh cilantro if you like. It is hearty, straightforward, and even better after the flavors have had a few minutes to settle.


Recipe Yield: 6 servings

Pumpkin Turkey Chili topped with sour cream, pale green pepitas, cilantro, black beans, and kidney beans.
Pumpkin Turkey Chili brings ground turkey, beans, pumpkin, smoky spices, sour cream, and toasted pepitas together in one hearty bowl.

INGREDIENTS

1 1/2 lbs 93% lean ground turkey
1 (15-oz) can pumpkin puree
1 (28-oz) can crushed tomatoes
1 (15-oz) can black beans, rinsed and drained
1 (15-oz) can kidney beans, rinsed and drained
1 medium yellow onion, diced
1 red bell pepper, diced
4 garlic cloves, finely minced
2 cups low-sodium chicken broth
2 tbsp tomato paste
2 tbsp olive oil
2 tbsp chili powder
2 tsp ground cumin
1 1/2 tsp smoked paprika, divided
1 tsp dried oregano
1/4 tsp ground cinnamon
1 1/4 tsp kosher salt, divided, plus more to taste
1/2 tsp black pepper
1 tbsp maple syrup
1 tbsp fresh lime juice
1/2 cup raw pepitas
1 tsp finely grated lime zest
2 tbsp chopped fresh cilantro
1/2 cup sour cream, for serving

INSTRUCTIONS

1. Brown the turkey:
Heat 1 tbsp olive oil in a large Dutch oven over medium-high heat. Add the turkey and cook for 6–8 minutes, breaking it into small irregular crumbles, until browned and cooked to 165°F. Transfer to a clean plate.

2. Soften the vegetables:
Add the remaining 1 tbsp olive oil to the pot. Add the onion, bell pepper, and 3/4 tsp salt. Cook over medium heat for 5–6 minutes, stirring occasionally, until softened.

3. Bloom the spices:
Add the garlic, tomato paste, chili powder, cumin, 1 tsp smoked paprika, oregano, cinnamon, and black pepper. Cook for 1 minute, stirring constantly, until fragrant and the tomato paste darkens slightly.

4. Add the pumpkin:
Stir in the pumpkin puree until completely combined with the vegetables and spices. Cook for 1 minute to deepen its flavor.

5. Build the chili:
Add the crushed tomatoes, chicken broth, black beans, kidney beans, maple syrup, remaining 1/2 tsp salt, and browned turkey with any collected juices. Stir until evenly combined.

6. Simmer until rich:
Bring the chili to a gentle boil, then reduce the heat to medium-low. Simmer uncovered for 25–30 minutes, stirring occasionally, until thickened but still spoonable.

7. Toast the pepitas:
Meanwhile, add the pepitas to a dry skillet over medium-low heat. Cook for 3–4 minutes, stirring frequently, until lightly toasted and beginning to pop.

8. Season the crunch:
Remove the pepitas from the heat. Toss with the remaining 1/2 tsp smoked paprika, lime zest, and a small pinch of salt.

9. Brighten the chili:
Remove the chili from the heat and stir in the lime juice. Let it rest for 5 minutes, then taste and adjust the salt if needed.

10. Finish and serve:
Ladle the chili into bowls. Finish with sour cream, toasted lime pepitas, and fresh cilantro, then serve warm.


Helpful Tips to Perfect This Recipe

  • Use pumpkin puree, not pie filling: Plain pumpkin gives the chili body and subtle earthy sweetness. Pumpkin pie filling contains added sugar and spices that will throw off the savory balance.
  • Brown the turkey before simmering: Giving the meat direct contact with the hot pot develops better savory flavor than simply cooking it in the liquid.
  • Keep the cinnamon restrained: Just 1/4 tsp rounds out the pumpkin and smoky spices without making the chili taste sweet or dessert-like.
  • Add the pepitas at serving: Keep the toasted pumpkin seeds separate until the bowls are ready so they stay crisp against the thick chili.

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How Beijing combines conservation and trade in panda diplomacy

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How Beijing combines conservation and trade in panda diplomacy

Two giant pandas recently landed in Atlanta, a week after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in Washington.

The summit produced no immediate breakthrough on trade deals, Taiwan or AI, but it did produce something cuddly for the American public: a pair of giant pandas, Ping Ping and Fu Shuang, which are on a ten-year loan to Atlanta’s zoo. Both were born in 2020 at the Chengdu Research Base of Giant Panda Breeding, the showpiece of a decades-old conservation effort.

China treats the giant panda as a national treasure and retains ownership of every one it lends abroad. Sending a pair is a mark of favor: The bears draw crowds and signal that Beijing values the relationship. When relations cool, the loans often seem to lapse and the pandas return to China. This is panda diplomacy.

From gifts to rentals

Some trace the practice to the Tang dynasty, when Empress Wu Zetian is said to have sent a pair of bears, believed to be pandas, to Japan, between 624 and 725 AD. The better-documented history begins in 1941, when Chiang Kai-shek’s government sent a pair to New York’s Bronx zoo as thanks for American aid.

But it was Mao Zedong who turned the gesture into policy. In 1957 he sent a panda, also called Ping Ping, to the Soviet Union, and by 1982 China had given away 23 pandas to nine countries. The most famous pair, Ling-Ling and Hsing-Hsing, were sent to Washington to commemorate Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to Beijing. They drew more than 20,000 people to the Smithsonian national zoo on their first day and an estimated 1.1 million in their first year.

Under Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, gifts became rentals in 1984, and pandas went on short, lucrative tours. The Los Angeles zoo paid US$100,000 a month for a pair during the 1984 Olympics.

Not everyone was charmed. Conservation groups such as The New York Zoological Society viewed the tours as money-making ventures. In 1988, when the Toledo zoo hosted a pair for 100 days it attracted protests. A judge barred the zoo from charging visitors extra to see them. In 1993 the US Fish and Wildlife Service stopped issuing new import permits. When it resumed in 1998, the new rules said a significant share of the money should protect wild pandas in China.

The result is today’s arrangement: long-term “research” loans, usually for ten years and up to US$1 million a year, with any cub born abroad remaining Chinese property. The rules changed, but the loans still follow Beijing’s interests. University of Oxford researchers found that loans after 2008 often coincided with trade deals. Malaysia received Xing Xing and Liang Liang in 2014 to mark 40 years of ties. And as relations with Washington soured, its pandas flew home in November 2023.

A conservation story

China set up its first panda reserves and banned hunting in the early 1960s. The Chengdu base opened in 1987 with six rescued wild pandas.

A national panda program followed in 1993. When a mass die-off of bamboo happened in 2005 and pandas starved, rescuers brought many into captivity. Today there are 67 reserves and a Giant Panda National Park. Wild numbers rose from 1,114 in the mid-1980s to 1,864 by 2014, and in 2016 pandas were moved off the endangered list.

The Chengdu base, a tourist magnet, breeds pandas for display and diplomacy. Releasing them is the job of a separate state body, the China Conservation and Research Center for the Giant Panda (CCRC). Its scientists say releases are replenishing fragile wild populations. They claim that this makes every zoo panda, including those lent abroad, a lifeline for wild ones. Some are skeptical about this claim.

Two decades of releases

The CCRC began moving pandas to the wild in 2003. Its first, Xiang Xiang, was found dead within a year. Of the dozen released since then, ten have survived, while more than 700 remain in captivity.

The only permanently released panda known to have had a cub, Luxin, was born wild.

Since 2017, previously captive females moved to the forest temporarily to mate with wild males, then returned to captivity, have produced 14 cubs, 12 of them surviving.

Bears for summits

Chinese scientists say the pandemic slowed the rewilding project, but its lack of success has drawn criticism from those who believe it should have had more emphasis and investment.

So far the attempts to replenish the wild panda population have not been as successful as many had hoped, and only small groups of giant pandas survive.

On the other hand China’s attempts to mix trade and conservation in zoos continues to create significant public relation successes. Each new announcement of new pandas heading to a foreign zoo attracts international attention and symbolises a renewed trading and foreign policy relationship between two nations. That’s something that Beijing will no doubt want to keep building on.

Chee Meng Tan is an assistant professor of business economics, University of Nottingham.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Disney offers $20M for Character.AI’s scandal-plagued chatbot tech

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Disney offers $20M for Character.AI’s scandal-plagued chatbot tech

In a bankruptcy proceeding that kicked off yesterday, Disney has offered to buy some of the technology that powers the controversy-plagued chatbot Character.AI.

Disney is willing to pay $20 million for “a non-exclusive perpetual license” of certain Character Technologies intellectual property, the chatbot maker said in a press release that did not go into much further detail on which assets Disney wanted.

The move may be surprising. In September 2025, Disney joined others in publicly criticizing Character.AI for stealing content and harming kids. Specifically, Disney sent a strongly worded cease-and-desist letter that accused Character Technologies of weaponizing Disney characters “in a way that could damage its brand long term,” Axios reported.

“Character.AI’s infringing chatbots are known, in some cases, to be sexually exploitive and otherwise harmful and dangerous to children, offending Disney’s consumers and extraordinarily damaging Disney’s reputation and goodwill,” Disney wrote at the time.

That scandal ended with Character Technologies wiping all Disney-owned characters from its platform, but since then, Disney has hired former Character.AI chief Karandeep Anand as its first chief technology officer, Deadline reported.

Disney did not respond to Ars’ request for comment on whether the company plans to use Character.AI technology in products for kids.

It’s possible that Disney will be outbid and not acquire any Character.AI intellectual property. But ever since Disney’s potentially lucrative partnership with OpenAI fell through after Sora’s abrupt shutdown, the entertainment giant has been looking for more ways to “get in the AI game and profit from its boom,” Deadline reported. (Meanwhile, OpenAI apparently plans to revive Sora without Disney, insiders told The Information.) So, Disney may be moving early in the hopes of acquiring chatbot technology proven to resonate with its fanbase. It may possibly even take over the platform in a transition that preliminarily would be managed by Character.AI employees, the press release said.

Character.AI remains online

Character.AI has been operating for four years and has a “large and engaged user base,” the Character Technologies bankruptcy filing said. Last year, a company blog reported that Character.AI attracted over 20 million monthly active users” across all services.

For fans, a Disney takeover might sound appealing, perhaps finally clarifying that the platform will survive its drawn-out legal troubles that have included settling a highly publicized lawsuit alleging that Character.AI’s chatbots encouraged a 14-year-old boy, Sewell Setzer III, to commit suicide. Additionally, two states are currently suing Character Technologies, alleging other harms to users. Kentucky claims that chatbots encouraged self-harm, while Pennsylvania claims chatbots illegally posed as licensed doctors.

In a blog discussing the bankruptcy sale process, Character.AI reassured users that the platform would remain online and accessible. Any ongoing subscriptions will continue to be charged unless services change to alter existing agreements, the blog said.

If all goes to plan, the sale will conclude by “the end of November or perhaps early December 2026,” Character.AI said. And although the press release noted that the platform would have to shut down if no buyer wanted to take on the potential liabilities of managing it, Character.AI promised users that “we’re focused on finding the best path forward for our platform and community.”

Bankruptcy sale may get sketchier

Beyond the tech Disney is eyeing, Character Technologies declined to comment on whether any sensitive data might be sold through the bankruptcy process. Beyond the $20 million Disney has offered, Character Technologies “listed estimated assets and liabilities of between $50 million and $100 million,” NBC News reported.

Its press release noted that the decision to file for bankruptcy was made to maximize shareholder value, while the blog only pointed to the privacy policy as reassurance to users that no sensitive data would be shared outside the platform. That policy explains that information shared with Character.AI may be transferred during sales of company assets, including identifying information, voice data, and chat logs. The only protection that the privacy policy offers regarding sensitive chats is a reminder to users that “sensitive personal information is not required or necessary to use the Services—please do not include any sensitive personal information in your interactions with us or the Services.” That seems to disregard studies that for years have shown that people are often willing and eager to disclose sensitive or personal information with a chatbot, as there is no fear of judgment.

Should Character.AI shut down and Character Technologies dissolve, it also seems possible that the AI company may be tempted to sell internal data, like employee emails and chat sessions. As AI companies everywhere seek new data sources, bankruptcy proceedings seem to be an emerging target to acquire lots of non-public data, as a controversial sale of bankrupted Spirit Airlines’ internal data to Google recently showed.

Right now, Character Technologies is staying tight-lipped about which assets might sell, with a spokesperson only reiterating prior statements from the company’s press release and court filings to Ars.

Buyer beware?

We’ll soon find out if the Character.AI platform will survive the bankruptcy in its current form, as the sale process gets started and potentially concludes within the next two to three months.

Any keen potential buyer likely observed that Character Technologies’ blog noted that transitioning the service to a new buyer could impact platform safety, though. And that little acknowledgment may be enough to make taking over the platform a less desirable direction for likely more cautious buyers like Disney that may want the technology but wish to distance itself from the brand. In the bankruptcy filing, Character Technologies confirmed that lawsuits tanked its business, despite its platform’s popularity.

“The burgeoning and evolving field of AI entertainment, however, has proven to be costly to develop and grow,” the filing said. “These high costs, coupled with potential litigation related liabilities and regulatory engagement have contributed to the Debtor’s inability to generate sufficient cash flows to support its business in the present form.”

UK and EU agree to hold Brexit ‘reset’ summit on Nov. 20

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UK and EU agree to hold Brexit ‘reset’ summit on Nov. 20


Britain and the European Union will hold their annual leaders summit on Nov. 20 in Brussels.

U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham confirmed the date in a statement to the House of Commons on Monday afternoon.

Brussels and London want to use the meeting to sign off new agreements on agri-food trade, emissions trading, and a youth mobility scheme.

Burnham told the Commons he wanted to secure a deal on the agreements — begun by previous Prime Minister Keir Starmer — and then begin a “calm, clear-eyed, rational look” at even closer relations.

“If we are serious about promoting growth, controlling immigration, upholding our values and security, it is a conversation we must have,” he said.

“Sticking with the status quo is not good enough for Britain. Worse, it would be a major dereliction of duty to turn away.”

He added: “Our immediate priority is securing a successful outcome at the summit, and I believe we should then set up a serious dialogue about the different options for our relationship in the long term.”

The prime minister also said the meeting would present an opportunity to “raise our concerns about Made In Europe” — the EU’s program of protectionism which some countries want to exclude the U.K.

Burnham has previously suggested these future options could include rejoining the single market, customs union, or even the EU wholesale.

Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the opposition Conservative party, criticized the prime minister for focusing on the U.K.’s relationship with the EU.

“His exact words earlier this year were, ‘The last thing we should do right now is rerun those arguments,’” she said.

“And yet, here he is unpicking the deal this country signed with the EU a decade after the referendum. He is not going to get a better deal. The EU are tough negotiators.”

She added: “Just like some people thought all of Britain’s problems would be solved by leaving the EU, some now think all our problems will be will be solved by rejoining. Neither of these are serious positions.”

In a statement issued while Burnham was speaking in Westminster, António Costa, president of European Council, which represents EU member countries, said improving cooperation was “essential.”

He said the three agreements under negotiation could be complemented by additional deals on a defence and security partnership, as well as on migration and law enforcement.

“The European Union and the United Kingdom are like-minded partners, united by common values and shared interests,” he said in a statement,” he said.

“Our security and prosperity are closely intertwined, making a strong partnership between us essential.

“By deepening our cooperation, we can strengthen our ability to address the challenges of our time, strengthen our resilience and promote stability in Europe and beyond.”

Costa and Burnham will be joined by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the Nov. 20 meeting. Negotiations have been taking place since the previous summit in May 2025, which was attended by Starmer.

This year’s summit was intended to take place in July but was postponed following the collapse of Starmer’s administration.

Via Politico

New Haredi Party Challenges Old Guard on Army Service, Jobs, and Women’s Representation

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New Haredi Party Challenges Old Guard on Army Service, Jobs, and Women’s Representation


HaTzibur HaHaredi seeks to preserve Torah study while expanding participation in Israeli society, challenging the priorities and authority of the established ultra-Orthodox parties

When hundreds of Haredi protesters descended on Modi’in last week to prevent military police from arresting a draft evader, Rabbi Yehoshua Pfeffer saw a dispute that had gone badly off course. He opposes the arrest of yeshiva students as a tool for enforcing enlistment, arguing that it creates friction and strengthens extremists. But the organized effort to prevent the arrest disturbed him just as much.

This is not just opposition to serving in the army. This is also lawlessness.

“This is not just opposition to serving in the army. This is also lawlessness,” Pfeffer told The Media Line.

Pfeffer chairs the rabbinic committee of HaTzibur HaHaredi (The Haredi Public), a new political party led by Beit Shemesh Deputy Mayor Moti Leitner. The party is seeking a place in the Knesset in Israel’s October 27 election, appealing to ultra-Orthodox voters who identify strongly with Torah life but no longer feel adequately represented by Shas or United Torah Judaism.

Leitner’s political experience began at the municipal level. In 2024, he led the Derech faction to two seats on the Beit Shemesh City Council, campaigning on education, employment, housing, and representation for Haredim whose needs he believed were being neglected.

The national movement emerged this year after its founders sought greater representation within the established Haredi parties. When that effort failed to produce an agreement, they launched an independent electoral campaign.

Leitner says the decision grew out of problems he had encountered in Beit Shemesh long before election season: families struggling to make ends meet, limited employment opportunities, shortcomings in education, and an increasingly difficult housing market. Then came October 7.

For Leitner, the Hamas attack turned a social argument into a question of responsibility. He said Haredi society had spent years trying to preserve a separate way of life, but parts of that separation had hardened into detachment from the rest of the country.

The result, in his view, hurt both Haredim and Israel. A community that makes up a large and growing share of the Jewish population cannot expect others to carry the burden of defense, economic productivity, and national institutions indefinitely, he said.

Leitner describes that message primarily as an internal Haredi reckoning, not an effort to win approval from secular Israelis. He wants a community capable of financing its own institutions, supporting Torah study through a stronger economy, and relying less on government subsidies or fundraising abroad.

Military responsibility is part of the same idea. Haredi families, he said, cannot assume that other Israelis will always be the ones sent to protect their children, neighborhoods, and cities.

That political argument places HaTzibur HaHaredi inside the Israeli right rather than between the country’s competing political blocs. Leitner told The Media Line that he wants a right-wing, national, and conservative government on economic, diplomatic, and security issues.

He said he would be comfortable joining a government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while also favoring a broader national coalition built around those principles.

The party’s difference with the established Haredi leadership becomes sharper on military service.

HaTzibur HaHaredi says men genuinely committed to full-time Torah study should remain protected. It does not extend that principle automatically to everyone enrolled in a yeshiva.

Pfeffer said there are institutions where men who are not serious full-time students remain largely to avoid military service.

Boys who are not in full-time Torah study have to be in the army

“Those institutions are not legitimate,” he said. “Boys who are not in full-time Torah study have to be in the army.”

The dispute comes against a difficult legal background. In June 2024, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that the government lacked a legal basis for continuing the longstanding exemption arrangements for Haredi yeshiva students. In April 2026, the court ordered additional enforcement measures against men avoiding the draft.

The Knesset subsequently approved temporary legislation in July intended to suspend certain enforcement measures against full-time yeshiva students. However, the Supreme Court issued an interim order preventing that law from taking effect while its legality was examined.

The continuing dispute has placed Haredi politicians under pressure from religious leaders seeking to preserve yeshiva study and from other Israelis demanding greater participation in military service.

HaTzibur HaHaredi proposes a distinction between students genuinely pursuing full-time Torah scholarship and those whose primary occupation lies elsewhere. Under its platform, men in the second category would be expected to undertake military or other qualifying security service through arrangements compatible with Haredi religious life.

Who decides which men qualify for exemptions is where the proposal becomes more difficult.

Pfeffer does not want the decision left entirely to Haredi institutions, where he believes internal pressures and political deals could affect the process. He supports a designated state body, with criteria and quotas during an initial transition.

Such a system would require legislation establishing who qualifies for deferment or exemption and how the rules would be enforced.

Pfeffer’s goal is a system in which military service becomes ordinary for Haredi men who are not suited to years of full-time Torah study, rather than a choice that carries a social stigma.

Pfeffer himself served in the military after October 7. He said Israelis outside the community often underestimate what enlistment means for a young Haredi man.

Separate units, stricter kosher standards, and other accommodations matter, but they do not resolve the deeper issue. The army has been one of the institutions most closely tied to Israeli identity since the state’s founding.

For thousands of Haredi men to enter it would change more than where they spend several years. It would alter how part of the community sees itself.

That is why Pfeffer prefers the word “partnership” to “equality.”

What we care about is partnership

“What we care about is partnership,” he said. “A demand not of equality, but a demand of partnership.”

Under that formula, Israel could continue allowing a significant number of serious Torah scholars to remain in yeshiva while expecting many others to serve, including in regular military units.

Pfeffer also welcomed proposals for yeshiva-based security frameworks where study could be combined with defense duties, calling the idea “a positive creative idea.”

The disagreement with the established Haredi parties goes beyond the draft.

Pfeffer says HaTzibur HaHaredi’s own rabbinic committee is not intended to reproduce the structure of Shas or United Torah Judaism, where senior rabbis exercise decisive authority over political representatives.

In the new party, he said, rabbis advise and guide, but elected officials are not simply there to carry out instructions.

“The lay leadership is not there just to carry out the instruction of the rabbis,” he said.

Pfeffer knows some of the rabbis connected to the traditional parties but said there has been no meaningful dialogue with their leadership since the new party was formed.

He also believes the established political leadership has damaged the way Haredi society is viewed outside its own communities.

When Israelis asked for more Haredi participation in defense, education, and the economy, Pfeffer said, the response from parliament too often sounded like “a flat no.”

That has consequences, he said, because political representatives become the public face of a much larger population.

“That answer creates not just friction and tension, but also anger, resentment, even animosity.”

Ziva Glanz, fourth on the party’s candidate list, approaches the same problem from another part of Haredi life.

She spent years working in housing, infrastructure, economic development, and immigrant absorption, and said she never felt fully represented by the traditional Haredi parties.

Many Haredim already work, study, and participate in the wider economy, she said, but the political priorities associated with the community have not always followed them there.

“They wanted to be part of society. They wanted to contribute to Israel,” Glanz said. “They don’t see themselves as the Haredi problem.”

Her presence on the list also breaks with a longstanding feature of Haredi national politics.

Glanz is one of two women among HaTzibur HaHaredi’s top four candidates. The other, Dr. Nechumi Yaffe, a scholar of Haredi society and lecturer at Tel Aviv University, is third on the list.

Their inclusion marks a departure from the practices of Shas and United Torah Judaism, which do not place women on their Knesset candidate lists.

Glanz argues that women taking responsibility inside Haredi society is hardly new.

They are the main breadwinners in their families. They’re running companies, they’re running organizations, they’re running schools.

“Women have been at the forefront of Haredi society already now for 20 years,” she said. “They are the main breadwinners in their families. They’re running companies, they’re running organizations, they’re running schools.”

What they have lacked, she said, is a seat in the political institutions making decisions that affect them.

Education is one of the areas where Glanz and Leitner see the existing system as too restrictive.

Glanz wants Haredi children to have access to mathematics and English from elementary school, along with more state-Haredi schools, secondary yeshivas offering general studies, and higher education programs adapted to religious requirements.

Leitner frames the issue partly as parental choice. He said Haredi parents who want state-Haredi education often cannot find it because local structures refuse to open the schools they are asking for.

The party’s educational proposals also reflect its economic priorities. Its leaders want more Haredi men and women to acquire the qualifications needed for stable employment while maintaining religious observance and supporting institutions devoted to Torah study.

Leitner remains firmly Orthodox in his understanding of Israel as a Jewish state, but he also criticizes religious coercion.

On disputes involving different Jewish movements or issues such as public policy on Shabbat, he said the government should recognize that Israelis do not all live by the same religious standards.

In some cases, he argued, transferring authority from the national government to municipalities could reduce conflict.

He was particularly critical of Haredi politicians who, in his view, have made Israelis more hostile toward religious institutions by relying too heavily on coercion.

Glanz sees October 7 as part of the reason those older boundaries have become less rigid.

Before the attack, she said, secular and Haredi Israelis often behaved as if they were standing in opposite corners of a “boxing match.”

The emergency brought people from different communities into the same volunteer centers and civilian operations.

She calls the network that emerged a kind of “citizen government,” where secular Israelis, Hasidim, and everyone between them worked together because the immediate task mattered more than their political disagreements.

Whether that spirit of cooperation can be translated into electoral support remains an open question.

HaTzibur HaHaredi faces established parties with longstanding religious leadership structures, extensive political organizations, and loyal voting constituencies.

It must also cross Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold to win representation in the 120-seat Knesset.

Several national surveys published in late September and early October did not show the new party crossing that threshold. A separate survey of young voters aged 18 to 22, published by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth on October 9, indicated stronger support among that age group, equivalent to five seats if its preferences were reflected in the electorate as a whole.

The findings suggest that the party’s message may resonate with some younger voters, but a survey restricted to that age group cannot establish its support among the entire electorate.

For now, HaTzibur HaHaredi is attempting to persuade voters that its proposals offer a way to protect traditional Haredi life while responding to problems that its leaders believe the established parties have neglected.

Asked where he wants Haredi society to be in another decade, Leitner did not describe a community with less Torah study.

He described one economically strong enough to sustain it, while tens of thousands more Haredim work, serve, and take part in the institutions responsible for the country’s security.

For Leitner, the test is not whether Haredim become less Haredi. It is whether they can stop depending on other Israelis to carry responsibilities that a growing community will increasingly have to carry for itself.

No, China is not filling the Western aid gap in Southeast Asia

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No, China is not filling the Western aid gap in Southeast Asia

When Australia’s Lowy Institute think tank released the 2025 edition of its Southeast Asia Aid Map in July last year, it projected that Western aid cuts would shift the region’s development finance toward Asian partners. Specifically, the report expected the center of gravity to “drift East, notably to Beijing but also Tokyo and Seoul.”

Lowy’s 2026 edition, released on October 11, now includes 2024 data and preliminary 2025 estimates. They do not show that shift. Aid and other official development finance to the region fell to US$26.1 billion in 2024, its lowest level since 2015. China and Japan both reduced their spending, and South Korea’s cuts begin in 2025.

Some of the 2024 fall was a matter of timing, as large pandemic-era Japanese loans to Indonesia and Vietnam were fully paid out. The bigger cuts are still to come.

Lowy estimates that concessional bilateral aid from established donor governments, including Japan and South Korea, would fall by at least another $1.76 billion, or about 20%, in 2025. That is a narrower measure than the $26.1 billion total, which also counts loans on near-commercial terms.

Significantly, China is not filling the gap. Its development finance to the region fell by almost a quarter in 2024, to $3.67 billion, and its share of bilateral finance has dropped from an average of about 20% to around 14.5% since 2022, a level Lowy expects would hold in 2025. New Chinese infrastructure commitments have stalled for 3 consecutive years.

Instead, the shift has been from donor governments to multilateral banks. In 2024, for the first time, multilateral development banks such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank provided more development finance to Southeast Asia than all individual donor governments combined, at $12.7 billion against $12.5 billion.

No government planned this. Instead, donor countries have cut their own aid programs while continuing to fund the banks, which has softened the overall decline.

The ADB and World Bank both spent less in 2024. The banks’ total held steady because the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a Beijing-based multilateral lender in which China is the largest shareholder, nearly quadrupled its spending in the region to $2.75 billion.

At first glance, a fast-growing, Chinese-led bank looks like the eastward shift many predicted. However, Lowy attributes the increase mainly to joint lending with the ADB and World Bank.

The AIIB’s own list of jointly financed projects shows 31 in the region since 2016, all led by the ADB or the World Bank group, and in each project the lead bank’s environmental and social rules apply.

In the Philippines, one of its biggest regional borrowers, the AIIB’s first project of its own was not due to be signed until 2024, according to the Philippine Department of Finance, eight years after the bank began operating.

Much of the recent joint lending has been budget support, paid directly to governments in return for reforms agreed with the ADB or World Bank. Such loans pay out quickly, which helps explain the jump in AIIB spending in 2024.

Meanwhile, China’s own direct lending is shrinking. Taken together, this suggests the fastest growth in China-linked development finance is coming through multilateral banks, largely within ADB and World Bank projects and on their terms.

Donors have good reason to keep funding the banks. According to Lowy, every dollar they contribute can support $ 4 to $ 8 in lending. Early OECD figures suggest donors increased their contributions to the World Bank and regional development banks in 2025, even as support for the UN fell sharply.

The risk is that a small group provides this support. The 11 donor governments that have announced aid cuts for 2025 to 2027 provide 62% of the core funding for the ADB and World Bank. Meanwhile, the banks are being asked to do more.

The 2026 Iran war has added an estimated $3.36 billion a month to the region’s energy import bill, and the ADB has mobilized $4 billion in crisis support across Asia and the Pacific.

For donors, there is also a trade-off. Bank lending is efficient, but recipients do not link it to any particular donor country. Governments that describe aid as part of their strategic presence in Southeast Asia lose some of that visibility, a point largely missing from debate about aid cuts.

For recipients, the type of money matters as much as the amount. Banks mostly lend, while donor governments provide more grants for health, education and community programs. Lowy expects Vietnam, Timor-Leste and Thailand to be most affected by the next round of donor cuts.

Vietnam shows the limits of the banks as a safety net. According to Lowy’s country profile, development finance paid to Vietnam fell from $9.2 billion in 2015 to $1.9 billion in 2024.

The banks have not made up the difference: World Bank spending fell by about two-thirds over that period, ADB spending more than halved in 2024 alone, and the AIIB’s only jointly financed project in the country as at 2024 was a 2020 credit line to a private bank. Japan, Vietnam’s largest partner, is cutting further.

Some of this decline is a sign of progress. As Vietnam has grown richer, it has lost access to the cheapest loans, including the World Bank’s most concessional lending from 2017. But its needs remain large, especially in energy, where past finance went heavily to coal-fired power.

Nearly half went to renewables in 2024, but from a shrinking pool: renewable energy finance to the region has fallen by two-thirds since 2018. Hanoi has also turned to public-private partnerships (PPPs) to fund infrastructure. The open question for Vietnam is whether higher-cost bank loans, bond markets, PPPs or other private investment can replace that cheap finance at the scale its shift to cleaner energy requires.

A year ago, expectations were that Asian partners would fill the space left by Western cuts. The 2024 data point elsewhere. The development banks have softened the decline, though not reversed it, with the Chinese-led AIIB working mostly inside ADB and World Bank projects.

That cushion depends on donors continuing to fund the banks, without any firm commitment to do so. For middle-income countries such as Vietnam, where the banks are also pulling back, costlier borrowing and private capital will have to fill more of the gap. Next year’s data will show whether the banks’ support has held.

Lam Duc Vu is a Southeast Asia-based risk analyst writing on Indo-Pacific security and regional affairs.

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