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Can the Left Win in the Midwest? Abdul El-Sayed Says Yes.

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Can the Left Win in the Midwest? Abdul El-Sayed Says Yes.


On Tuesday, Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., will face off in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary. The race is the next biggest test of whether progressives can win statewide, particularly in purple territory.

The Michigan race is one of the most expensive primaries of the cycle. Outside groups have spent upward of $50 million in support of Stevens or against El-Sayed. Most of that money is coming from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and its affiliated groups — close to $30 million, which their largest investment ever in a single race, according to The AP.

“It’s just anti-democratic on its own terms,” El-Sayed, the former public health official, tells The Intercept Briefing. “I always ask people, “OK, you’re covering this as a very close race, but would it be close if they didn’t have $60 million to spend? Would it even be a close race at all?’”

This week on The Intercept Briefing podcast, host Akela Lacy asks, can progressives win outside of blue cities? El-Sayed argues, if you focus on the issues people care about and act on them, you can: “Look, you have an option that’s not bought off by all the same corporations. And that option is desperately clear about wanting you to have healthcare, and also wanting your kid to have a good school, and also making sure that there’s not a data center that gets planted in your backyard to automate your job away.”

Lacy explores that question further with Ryan Clancy, a Wisconsin state representative and founding member of the state legislature’s current Socialist Caucus, and Thom Hartmann, a progressive political commentator. 

Clancy says voters he speaks to in Milwaukee “want a fighter. People want people in office who are going to fight for the middle class, fight for actual transformative change.” He adds, “The idea that in order to win in a purple district that is roughly split between Democrats and Republicans, that you need when you’re a Democrat, to look as much like a Republican as possible is just not helpful.” 

Polling suggests that El-Sayed has a commanding lead over Stevens in the Democratic primary. But polls for the November general election narrow sharply when El-Sayed is up against Trump-backed Republican candidate Mike Rogers; one shows Rogers beating him by 10 percentage points, which the Stevens’s campaign has leaned into.

“We’ve been in this change moment. We’re sick and tired of neoliberalism. We’re sick and tired of Reaganism. We’re sick and tired of the status quo. We’re sick and tired of a dying middle class. We have been living in this moment, in my opinion, since 2000, and I think in a big way since 2008. Obama promised hope and change, and really just brought us a bunch of health insurance companies,” says Hartmann. “I’m not sure if we’re there yet to the point where a good message like El-Sayed’s message can overcome millions of dollars from Israel and from big corporations. That’s going to be the big challenge.”

The Intercept invited Stevens on the program for an interview but as of publishing have not heard back yet.

For more, listen to the full conversation of The Intercept Briefing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you listen.

Transcript

Akela Lacy: Welcome to The Intercept Briefing. I’m Akela Lacy, senior politics reporter at The Intercept.

What do Democratic voters really want? It’s the question that’s animated primaries so far this cycle in the ongoing battle over the future of the Democratic Party. 

Progressives and democratic socialists say their recent wins from New York to Maine to Colorado, including a slew of races where insurgent candidates beat incumbents or others backed by the Democratic Party, have pushed their skeptics to move the goalposts. 

The main criticism facing the left is no longer that its candidates can’t win — it’s that they can’t win in “normal” places outside of city enclaves full of young, educated, left-leaning voters. 

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev.:  In those swing states, it’s the moderate candidate that is more successful statewide.

AL: That argument has reared its head again ahead of key primaries in the Midwest set to test the power of progressives to win in statewide races pitting them against the Democratic establishment in states like Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. 

This week on The Intercept Briefing, we’re talking about the question we just can’t seem to get away from: Can the left win in the Midwest?

We put that question to one of the candidates at the center of that debate, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, who is running in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday. We also asked his opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, to discuss the issues, but she has not gotten back to us.

But first, I’m joined by Ryan Clancy, a Wisconsin state Rep. and founding member of the state legislature’s current Socialist Caucus and the first democratic socialist lawmaker elected in Milwaukee in more than half a century. 

Ryan Clancy, welcome to The Intercept Briefing.

Ryan Clancy: Thank you so much for having me. Looking forward to this. 

AL: We’re also joined by Thom Hartmann of the “Thom Hartmann Program” on radio stations across the country, and the author of “Who Killed the American Dream?”, about an 1886 Supreme Court decision that gave corporations constitutional rights. Thom, welcome to The Intercept Briefing.

Thom Hartmann: Thanks, Akela. 

AL: So we’re talking about the question of whether the left can win in the Midwest, but I want to start with the premise of that question. Why is there this idea that the left can’t win in the Midwest? Where does that come from? Ryan, let’s start with you, and then Thom. 

RC: I think it’s coming from two different places. One is just fear. In Wisconsin here, we’ve lived now for 16 years under Republican control. We haven’t had the abilities to even get bills hearings, much less pass things into law and do what Wisconsin needs us to. So I think there is some valid concern that people just don’t want another Republican.

But there really is no basis for not wanting somebody from the left unless you’re a Democrat who’s just a conservative or moderate and one of the folks who is, I think, on the way out both in Wisconsin and across the country. 

AL: Thom, what’s your take? 

TH: I think it’s astonishing that we’re calling this “the left.” I’m assuming that Ryan is not calling for all of the big companies in America to be owned by the government. 

RC: Not until next week. [Laughter]

TH: Exactly. Right now where progressive Democrats are at is where Dwight Eisenhower was at. He ran for reelection in 1956 on the fact that he had almost doubled the number of people on Social Security. He’d expanded the benefits. He’d almost tripled the number of people eligible for union jobs and increased union membership by almost 100 percent. 

My mom, in the 1950s, went to college, and she paid her way through Michigan State University and graduated — with a summer job as a lifeguard in Charlevoix, Michigan. That was the world. 

Today, if anybody proposed that you should be able to go to college and work a part-time job for three months to pay for an entire year of a major Big Ten school!

Healthcare was inexpensive in Michigan where I grew up. Blue Cross Blue Shield was required by law to be a nonprofit. In fact, all of the insurance here, all of the hospitals in the state were required by law to be nonprofits. If anybody were to propose this stuff now, they’d be screaming “communism!” This is just common sense

To the extent that America has been radicalized, I would say it’s the radical middle, not the left. The real left largely doesn’t exist in America. 

RC: Yeah, you’re totally right. I think the reason for the resurgence of the left, really, is the economic conditions. It’s people having really been let down by capitalism, by so many years of moderate and Republican control.

We’ve seen the average age for somebody buying their first home go from the 20s years ago: It’s 41 now. The idea of the American Dream really is out of grasp for many people, even people who are working really hard to get there.

TH: Again, in the 1950s, my dad bought the house that I grew up in 1957. He was able to do that because he finally got a union job at a tool and die shop. With that one union paycheck, he was able to buy a house. He bought a new car every three years. He took a vacation every year. He retired and traveled the world. He put four boys through college — on a single paycheck!

If you use that as the definition of the middle class, 65 percent of Americans were there because a third of us had union jobs when Ronald Reagan came into office in 1981. Today, it’s 41 percent of us who can make that claim, who can satisfy all those tick marks for the middle class — and it requires two paychecks to do that.

This is 45 years of Reaganomics that’s just essentially ripped America apart, torn apart the middle class. So you’ve got people reacting and saying, no, we want to either go back or go forward — however you want to define it or frame it — to a world where work is honored, regardless of educational attainment. If somebody works a 40-hour week, they should be able to have housing and transportation and food and a decent life.

The reactionaries, the Reaganites, the crazies on the right start screaming “leftism” and “communism.” I’ll call myself the left, but the Overton window has just been — it hasn’t moved, it’s been blown off the side of the map.

“If somebody works a 40-hour week, they should be able to have housing and transportation and food and a decent life.”

RC: Absolutely.

AL: We were talking about this today in a meeting with some of my colleagues about criticism when reporters use the word “centrist Democrat” or “moderate Democrat.”

I think that’s the perfect counterpoint to the point that you both are making, which is that not only have policies that were considered common sense or mainstream half a century ago [are now] portrayed more and more as radical. But policies that are overtly conservative among the Democratic Party are portrayed as the common sense or the centrist position, when in reality, they are increasingly reflective of a right wing — a strong right wing — within the Democratic Party. How has that happened? 

That subtext feels like it’s missing from all of the conversations that we’re having around this midterm cycle. Part of this is the messaging battle, right? That Republicans are very good at fearmongering — and Democrats are good at fearmongering around the left. But what has made that shift possible and that sort of flipping of these definitions? 

RC: I think it’s a lack of political bravery. In Wisconsin 16 years ago, we had a trifecta, and Democrats totally missed the moment. We didn’t codify abortion rights. We didn’t raise the minimum wage from $7.25, where it has languished for many years now. The sub-minimum wage in Wisconsin is $2.33 for service industry workers that are customarily tipped. 

When Democrats have the ability to make real substantial change, and they don’t, we’re in trouble. I think we see that window moving, slipping slowly to the right and have for the last 15 years.

TH: I think it’s important to put this in a historical context. When Franklin Roosevelt became president in ’33, only about 20 percent of America was in the middle class. He set out to create, and succeeded in creating, the world’s first middle class that was more than half of the nation’s population. And the principal thing that drove that was unionization.

He legalized unions in 1935 with the Wagner Act. So from the mid-’30s all the way up until really 1992, what you saw was that the Democratic Party was largely funded by unions, and the Republican Party was largely funded by corporations and fat cats. But in 1981, Reagan went after the unions. A third of us were in unions at that time when he was elected, and he starts with PATCO [the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization], and he just deconstructed the unions.

He puts an anti-union lawyer in charge of the Labor Department, et cetera. So by ’92, right when Clinton wants to run for president, the unions are down to like 10 percent of the American workforce, maybe 9 percent of the American workforce. They got no money. 

So Clinton’s looking around going, “I can’t get enough money to run for president. What do I do?” And the solution that these guys came up with — and it was a reasonable one at the time in 1992 — was to say, “Well, I guess we’re going to have to take corporate money, but let’s take it from the good corporations. Let’s take it from health insurance companies and banks and pharmaceutical companies, not those awful oil companies or the chemical companies or the mining operations.”

So we got all this speechification from Clinton about the new jobs and everything else. But the bottom line was that was the point at which the Democratic Party essentially sold out to neoliberalism and this “moderate position.” In fact, Clinton called it the Third Way, The Third Way Democrats, and the new Democrats. The same thing was going on in the U.K. It wasn’t really until the Obama campaign in 2008 that we discovered that the internet was capable of raising money for a presidential campaign, enough to get somebody into the White House. But the Democrats had not, or at least about half of the Democrats right now, have still not sworn off that money that Clinton lurched at.

So you’ve got about half the Democratic Party that is beholden to their donors. That’s why you’re not seeing them take advantage of these opportunities like Ryan was talking about. Then you got another half of the Democratic Party, the Progressive Caucus in the House, about 100 members, who are not taking corporate money and are explicitly saying, “No, let’s work toward what people want.”

That schism — that split — in the Democratic Party, it’s way behind the American people. The Democratic base is 80, 90 percent with the progressives. The American public is 60, 70 percent with the progressives. But the institutional Democratic Party and the old line, or these on-the-take Democrats, I call them the Jared Goldens and Josh Gottheimers of the world — they’re going to fight like hell to hang on to that money and all those perks that go with it. That’s the real tragedy of this moment because it just cripples our ability to challenge the genuine fascists who are running our government right now and trying to take our country apart.

AL: Ryan, we’re two weeks out from a very big primary in Wisconsin. What are you hearing from your constituents on the issues that resonate with them from a democratic socialist perspective? Do voters in Midwestern states actually prefer more conservative Democrats? 

RC: They absolutely do not want conservative Democrats. The playbook that I think a lot of Democrats are working from is old. I don’t think that it was really the case even 10 or 20 years ago. But the idea that in order to win in a purple district that is roughly split between Democrats and Republicans, that you need, when you’re a Democrat, to look as much like a Republican as possible is just not helpful.

It’s not what people want on the doors. People want a fighter. People want people in office who are going to fight for the middle class, fight for actual, transformative change. That’s the reason that we saw some voters move from a Bernie Sanders to a Donald Trump. It wasn’t necessarily the specific policies; it was the idea that they wanted somebody who would mess with the system.

“People want a fighter.”

I knock on Republican and Independent and socialist, libertarian doors all over the place. And there’s a critical mass of folks right now who still want that change, but they realize that it’s not going to come. The sort of change they want is not going to come in the form of a Donald Trump or in a Tom Tiffany, who is the likely Republican nominee for governor.

But they do want Democrats who are going to fight for them in ways that we’ve really missed the moment on in over the last decade and a half. 

AL: The next biggest test on these questions, particularly whether progressive wins that we saw earlier this cycle will carry over into statewide races, is the upcoming Michigan Democratic Senate primary.

Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens are facing off on Tuesday. El-Sayed, a former public health official, has the backing of some of the most well-known progressives in Congress, from Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Stevens, on the other hand, is backed by members of the Democratic establishment, like Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Jim Clyburn, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Sen. Chuck Schumer said she had the best shot of winning, though he didn’t officially endorse her.

This is one of the most expensive primaries of the cycle. Outside groups have spent upwards of $50 million in support of Stevens or against El-Sayed — most of that money coming from one single group, the super PAC for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has spent a record amount, more than $25 million, on the race.

Stevens and El-Sayed debated on Monday. Let’s hear from both their opening statements. 

Dr. Abdul El-Sayed: My friend is going to frame this race about me and her. It’s not about that. It’s about you. It’s about what you deserve. It’s about you deserving a politics that’s not bought off by the same corporations picking your pocket at every single turn.

I’m looking forward to the conversation about how we get money out of politics, put money in your pocket, and pass Medicare for All. 

Rep. Haley Stevens: Look, Michigan deserves a senator who can win and who can deliver. I’m the only one on this stage who has flipped a Republican seat, and I was named Michigan’s most effective Democratic lawmaker in Congress because my only focus is you. Abdul is running for celebrity. Republicans are propping up his campaign. 

RC: You could not have candidates that are more starkly contrasted with each other.

You have somebody who’s backed by AIPAC. In that same interview, actually, she was asked point-blank if she took money from their power company [two major Michigan utility companies]. And she said no, that she had not, and absolutely did. 

AL: She was asked about saying no, and then she said that she thought they were talking about this cycle and not previous cycles. And she admitted that she had taken it in previous cycles.

RC: She is backed by all of the institutions that average people across that state, and across the U.S., absolutely revile. AIPAC is wildly unpopular now — so are power companies, for that matter.

You have a candidate who is very clearly beholden to his community, somebody who came up as a doctor in public health; and then you have somebody who claims to be successful. Her version of success is collaborating with Republicans to pass bad policy. That is not the definition of “effective” that most voters in the United States right now want. They want people who will be fighting for something better, not rolling over and collaborating with the people that have made it worse.

“Her version of success is collaborating with Republicans to pass bad policy. That is not the definition of ‘effective’ that most voters in the United States right now want.”

AL: Thom, what are the biggest takeaways from this race so far, and who do you think is going to win? 

TH: It’s a classic example of the kind of Hillary–Bernie divide brought into this era. In that 2016 election, I was living on a boat in Washington, D.C., in the marina there. We were doing our show from D.C.

Maybe a third of the people who lived in that marina were either active-duty or retired Coast Guard or Navy, living in boats. Men mostly, and almost all every single one of them that I can recall called himself Republican. During that primary, most of them were actually planning on voting for Bernie, these Republicans, because they thought that he was going to bring genuine change.

But when the day finally came, and afterwards, I talked to many of them, a lot of them ended up voting for Trump because they thought that he would actually bring change.

“Obama promised hope and change, and really just brought us a bunch of health insurance companies.”

We’ve been in this change moment. We’re sick and tired of neoliberalism. We’re sick and tired of Reaganism. We’re sick and tired of the status quo. We’re sick and tired of a dying middle class. We have been living in this moment, in my opinion, since 2000, and I think in a big way since 2008. Obama promised hope and change, and really just brought us a bunch of health insurance companies.

I’m not sure if we’re there yet to the point where a good message like El-Sayed’s message can overcome millions of dollars from Israel and from big corporations. That’s going to be the big challenge. We’re seeing this now. In the 2024 election, 20 percent of all the spending in that election came from a handful of billionaire families, all for Republicans.

So it’s going to be really interesting, and it’s going to be really instructive, I think, next Tuesday to see how this shakes out. But it’s really a challenge of big money.

“It’s really a challenge of big money.”

AL: The irony being that Haley Stevens, in the last couple of debates in the final weeks of the race, has tried to make that argument against Abdul El-Sayed, saying he’s got all this personal wealth: “I’m the only non-millionaire in this race.” Meanwhile, she has the vast majority of outside spending on her side; it’s not even a comparison. 

El-Sayed has been leading Stevens in primary polls, but her campaign has been touting other polling that shows her leading Republican Trump-backed candidate Mike Rogers in November, and El-Sayed losing to him.

This is another classic case of voters potentially having a different preference for the direction of the Democratic Party and the party pushing back against that with the electability argument. But if the less popular Democrat actually wins — either in the primary or in the general — where does that leave the party in the long term? Does that not aggravate voter frustration even more and set up a situation where the GOP gets the upper hand anyway? 

TH: It does, and it always does. I would argue that when you look at these match-ups, with the general population voting and El-Sayed starts dropping — what you’re seeing there is racism and anti-Muslim bigotry probably more than anything else. And apparently it’s a bigger force, at least in this election, than misogyny. In addition to all the money that’s been spent.

AL: I will say my colleague Jonah Valdez did a great piece on Islamophobia in this race that I encourage all of you to read at The Intercept. This is for our listeners.

Ryan, did you want to add anything on that? 

RC: I do think that the polls, both in Michigan and in here and other places, they are not measuring the enthusiasm gap as they should. I think they are underrepresenting these dynamic leftist candidates. Because when somebody is asked, they can only say yes so forcefully, right? A yes is a yes. But voters and people who are really engaged with these campaigns, when you knock on their doorstep and you ask them about somebody and they light up — these are the folks who are going to drag their friends to the polls, both for primaries and again in November, in a way that somebody grudgingly backing a centrist candidate just isn’t.

So I think he’s going to do fine. 

AL: The counterpoint to the argument that progressives or a leftist archetype doesn’t work outside of blue cities is that there is an archetype that works. And it’s dictated largely by the Democratic Party and its campaign committees. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other groups aligned with the conservative wing of the Democratic Party have had a very rough cycle.

They’ve lost races in Arizona, California, and Colorado, while other incumbents lost in New York and Texas. The DCCC recently added a candidate that they endorsed against in Arizona to their coveted Red to Blue list, which typically helps boost candidates with fundraising. That addition to the list comes along with another candidate, Sam Forstag, who’s running for a competitive congressional seat in Montana against Republican Aaron Flint.

Forstag is a firefighter and a union organizer who won the endorsement of democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez last month, and she spoke at a rally for him in Montana in May. This is a rare case of overlap between the DSA and the establishment wing. Is that surprising to you? Is this a model that we could potentially see in other races?

RC: It has to be, otherwise it is the death of the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party as a brand is not polling well at all. If I was the Democratic machine, if my goal was to make sure that the Democratic Party was strong and vibrant and thriving, I would be encouraging these awesome candidates on the left into my party.

But increasingly we are hearing Democrats talk about a big tent, but they only mean big to the right. For some reason, the tent flap is just not big enough to cover those on the left in a lot of cases. But ultimately that unity and saying, “Oh, the candidates on the left within our own party are not a threat to us, they are the future, they are how we get through this,” really is inevitable. And they have to do this or fall out of power even more than they have.

TH: Yeah, they’re 20 years behind the electorate right now. 

AL: I want to turn now to the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary on August 11. Francesca Hong, democratic socialist candidate, has been leading in recent polling, while other Democratic candidates in the race like Mandela Barnes and David Crowley, who dropped out of the race and quickly reentered after the establishment pick Sara Rodriguez dropped out over a campaign finance scandal, have been polling below Hong.

What do you think it would take for a more progressive candidate to win in Wisconsin or throughout the Midwest? We’ll start with Ryan, and then I’ll come to you, Thom. 

RC: Folks on doors are really concerned about everyday things. They’re concerned about affordability. They’re concerned that they cannot afford healthcare. They’re concerned that they can’t afford rent and that they’ll never be able to afford a home because everything’s getting more expensive.

“I’ve never seen people more concerned for themselves and their families.”

But they also have these existential concerns. I’ve never seen people more concerned for themselves and their families. I talked to a woman on doors a couple weeks ago who broke down crying at the door because rather than me showing up and saying, “Here’s who I am and, will you vote for me?” My question was, “How are you? What are you concerned about?” And she started crying and talked about how she was concerned about a family member being abducted by ICE and the ever-present threat of that. So we need people who are going to meet the moment, who are going to address those very real concerns from affordability to concern for community in a way that we haven’t yet but that we need to.

TH: I think that it’s really important that people who are concerned about this political future and where things are going and whatnot get inside the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party, it’s a billion-dollar corporation. It’s just sitting there, saying, anybody can come in and volunteer and participate

I’ve had a bunch of people call into my program over the years since I’ve been ranting about this for a decade, who have gotten inside their local Democratic parties. And once you become a precinct committee person, you’re the person or the people who write the platform for the party. You’re the ones who determine who the primary candidates are going to be. You’re the first ones that when your congressperson or your senator comes into your state to talk to the people, you’re the first one they talk to. You have incredible power and influence. A lot of people are just sitting around complaining rather than doing something like this.

Progressives, social democrats, right across the board, I think that we need to be taking over the Democratic Party. We need to learn from the way that the GOP got flipped by the right a decade and a half ago. 

AL: Ryan and Thom, thank you so much for joining me on The Intercept Briefing.

I will just mention for our listeners: Thom’s new book gets at one of the root causes of many of the issues that we’re talking about, giving corporations the same rights as people. Thank you both again for the time. This was a great conversation. 

TH: Thank you. 

RC: Thank you so much for having us.

[Break]

AL: The race on everyone’s minds is happening on Tuesday in Michigan, where Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is running against Rep. Haley Stevens in the state’s Democratic Senate primary. 

El-Sayed joins me now. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, welcome to The Intercept Briefing.  

Abdul El-Sayed: Akela, it’s a privilege to be with you. You gotta call me Abdul.

AL: I will. Thank you. We also reached out to Stevens’s campaign to join us on the podcast and did not hear back. 

Abdul, let’s just jump in. I’ve been listening to a lot of your interviews, and one thing that has stood out to me is that you’re walking this delicate line between providing what you say is an alternative for voters who’ve been disenchanted with both parties, while also trying to demonstrate your capacity to beat a Republican in November.

How do you square those two objectives between attracting support in a state that Trump won — including potentially from people who might have supported him — and also making this case that you can and will beat Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate Trump endorsed in the race and was campaigning with earlier this week.

AES: I don’t think about it as much as walking a line as I do about building something that is magnetic for everyone. I think walking a line implies a frame of this, like, left–right divide. “You don’t want to go too far left, otherwise you might lose the people who are on your right!” And I just don’t think that’s the reality for most people.

Most people don’t walk around asking, “Where do I sit on the left–right spectrum?” Most people are walking around asking, “What the hell’s going to happen if I get sick? What’s going to happen if I lose my home or I lose my job? Or AI, literally, they automate out the possibility of my being able to earn the money I need to provide for my family? Also, why does my kids’ school look like it did 50 years ago?”

I think those are the things that unite most Michiganders. You can go anywhere in the state, and you hear the same concerns. I’m looking to build a movement that pushes back on the bipartisan consensus that we ought to build a politics that is paid for by corporations, Big Tech, Big Pharma, DTE [Energy], Blue Cross — and that gives you milquetoast answers to most problems.

I’m looking to build a politics that takes the questions that we’re asking head on and answer them by telling folks that we really can get past the corporate-bought version of politics that’s too often forced into our eyeballs in tens of millions of dollars of spending on ads, and to a question of, let’s solve these things because we’re not bought off by the people who caused the problem in the first place.

AL: Touching on, this flipping the left–right divide framing on its head: Have you spoken with voters who’ve supported Trump? Are you courting those voters?

AES: They come to my events. That’s the thing is, that people think you gotta kinda go to different places to court different voters.

The nature of this world — you and I are talking by virtue of a set of microphones and cameras. This is going to go out into the ether, and it’s probably going to be clipped, and then people are going to hear these clips. What that means is that it’s a lot easier for folks to hear something, and then if that sounds kinda right, they’ll come and find you. And then they’ll come to your events.

I can’t tell you how many people have come to events of mine saying, “I voted for Donald Trump three times, and I’m voting for you.” I give them a kinda quizzical look. I’m like, “Me? Me?” And they’re like, “Yeah.” I ask why, and it’s because, “Hey, I really think you want me to have healthcare.” I’m like, “I really want you to have healthcare.” They’re like “I think you really are America first, like you want to keep my tax dollars here.” I was like, “I really want to keep your tax dollars here.” And they’ll say, “Look, I voted for Donald Trump not because I agree with him on everything, but he didn’t look like politics as usual.” And they’re right. He didn’t look like politics as usual. He was like the most heinous version of the worst things about politics as usual.

I’m out here trying to say, “Look, you have an option that’s not bought off by all the same corporations. And that option is desperately clear about wanting you to have healthcare, and also wanting your kid to have a good school, and also making sure that there’s not a data center that gets planted in your backyard to automate your job away.”

Imagine what that could look like. So what happens if, instead of Donald Trump, the person pushing back on politics as usual on both sides of the aisle is a doctor who rebuilt health departments to eliminate medical debt, provide Narcan, and put glasses on kids?

“I don’t do this because I care about the future of the Democratic Party. I care about the future of Michiganders.”

AL: You’ve said Trump is a symptom of the bigger problems in our political system, not the problem itself. A core part of your campaign is highlighting what you’ve described as the corruption of politics on both sides of the aisle by corporate and special interest money, as you’ve mentioned already, as we’re talking. Democrats just launched a new campaign hitting Trump’s corruption ahead of November, tying it to rising costs for Americans. And they’re preparing to make this the centerpiece of their agenda should they take control in Congress after the midterms.

Is that an effective strategy? What do you make of that effort? Is that an approach you share, or would you do anything differently?

AES: Yeah, I think we should take on his corruption. His corruption’s insane. It’s like he’s made $2 billion off of the White House. He just took out the East Wing because he wanted to, and is now fixated on drapes despite the fact that he took us into a war he doesn’t seem to know how to take us out of.

I think the issue here is corruption, but I also think that in order to talk about corruption, it really helps to be somebody who’s not played that game at all and will never play that game. We need more Democrats who make sure that we are not playing on that side so that the contrast is clear.

Look, I don’t do this because I care about the future of the Democratic Party. I care about the future of Michiganders. But if an election is an exercise in contrasts, and your argument is that they’re corrupt, it helps to make sure that you have not taken a dime of that corruption money.

AL: Democrats can’t make that argument in your race, right? One of the most expensive primaries in this cycle due almost wholly to the spending of one super PAC, United Democracy Project, AIPAC super PAC. But why does —

AES: Akela, if I can push back on that. Actually, UDP has only spent half the amount of money: $61 million, they’ve spent $31 million of it. So the other money is, it’s buried in these shell 501(c)(4)s.

Part of it is probably DMFI money, part of it’s also probably other AIPAC money, but a lot of it is also just your usual standard issue, Big Pharma, Big Tech, big everyone else. DTE, our local utility who’s one of the worst corporate actors in Michigan. So it’s all bundled in one and the same. Obviously, UDP is just insane amounts of money. They set a record against me in terms of the amount of money that they’ve spent.

But it is everyone, and part of it is also the point that it’s just anti-democratic on its own terms. I always ask people, “OK, you’re covering this as a very close race, but would it be close if they didn’t have $60 million to spend? Would it even be a close race at all?” 

Then if it’s their corruption money against a campaign of grassroots organizers knocking nearly 10,000 doors a day, what kind of politics do we actually want? One where corporations and people who want to send your money abroad get to dump $60 million into a race? Or one where young organizers are coming together to build a movement, to knock doors, to have conversations about who we are and who we want to be?

It’s anti-democratic on its own terms. And Democrats, they’re all so worried about what this all means. I’m like, “It means that we still have an opportunity to inspire people, y’all. That’s what it means, and we can win if we do it.”

AL: One of the questions that we’ve been talking about a lot on this podcast is, why are Democrats so afraid of the message that you’re sending in terms of getting big money out of politics? Could the Democratic Party exist in its current form if they didn’t rely on these kinds of outside groups spending to prop up their preferred candidates, particularly in primaries?

“Democrats, they’re all so worried about what this all means. I’m like, “It means that we still have an opportunity to inspire people, y’all.’”

AES: Look, if you’re somebody like Chuck Schumer and your experience of politics is to be able to dictate where a whole bunch of money from big corporations and their lobbyists goes, so that you can handpick your senatorial colleagues who will do exactly what you want them to do, and then you get invited to their fancy cocktail parties and have a nice life — if that’s your vision of politics, then, yeah, you’re probably scared of somebody like me. Because, A, I’m not coming to your cocktail party. B, I’m not somebody who’s going to do what you tell me. And C, I don’t need you or your money. So I think that’s why they’re all so afraid. Now, of course, they hide behind the idea of, “Well, can somebody with his politics win in Michigan?”

If you were out there solving actual problems for people — if groceries weren’t inflating like a balloon, if people could afford their gas because you actually were an opposition party that could stand up to this absurd war, if people had healthcare and didn’t have to worry about it because you weren’t so bought off by Big Pharma and health insurance corporations, I think we would have so much better an opportunity to both win races and actually govern.

The problem, though, is that there’s a cynicism to this kind of politics. You retain a certain level of power, but the other side of it is you can’t actually solve the problems because, of course, that means opposing the very corporations who create the problems in the first place.

AL: Digging a little bit more into specific policy issues. You’ve said AI has taken over climate change as the biggest risk, though the two are inextricable. How has AI and the issue of data centers come up in your conversations with voters?

AES: Yeah, I don’t want to say biggest risk, just most urgent — because it’s imminent, right? And climate change feels imminent now that we’re all worried about trying to dodge air coming from wildfires in Canada. It looks like Europe is burning. So yes, I don’t want to undercut —

AL: They’re linked. They’re two sides of the same issue.

AES: They’re linked. It’s just this one is exceedingly urgent. I want all of us to step back and just remember that moment where ChatGPT came out. It was the end of 2022. It is now the middle of 2026, and I want you to think about just how much money is being flowed into the economy to enable research that’s foundationally unregulated, that could cause danger in so many different ways.

The first is, it can disrupt the social contract as we know it to the ability to sell your human capital on a market for money, when intelligence is now automated — that part.

Then there’s the existential, actual risk. Just last week you had an OpenAI model that jumped its “sandbox” to go commit a cyberattack on a website.

Then there’s the question of data centers. This comes up all the time, and it comes up usually from communities where data centers are trying to be placed. Or it comes up from young people who are actually the most avid users of AI and also have this pit in their stomach about the existential risk of not having a job in the future.

I gotta be honest with you, the worry that I have is that you’ve got probably three nine-figure super PACs that are out there in the world right now. Two of them are AI PACs; the third one is AIPAC. They are trying to throw their body weight around in a way that could render AI ungovernable.

The reason I say this, and I started with this question of do you remember where you were, less than four years ago, is that it’s only been three and a half years. So what happens in the next three and a half? If our Congress is not capable of setting the regulatory framework now, we might reach escape velocity. I don’t love that future when a few billionaires get to decide what happens with the most powerful technology that’s ever existed.

“If our Congress is not capable of setting the regulatory [AI] framework now, we might reach escape velocity.”

AL: Abdul, you’ve criticized what you say has been a conversation about climate change that’s been held in esoteric terms. This is a criticism that Democrats have faced on other issues beyond climate too — criminal justice reform, racial inequality, et cetera, talking about issues in a way that can feel inaccessible or stuck in the ivory tower. Are there other policy issues where you see Democrats making that same mistake?

AES: I think a lot of them. I think AI is one of them. I think we need to be talking about the closest risk that people perceive, rather than the long-range risk that people don’t. It’s particularly hard when the causes of the problem feel less connected to the outcome of the problem.

Then when we don’t take seriously a lot of the pushback in the short run when it comes to the climate crisis, we all know that the pathway to solving it needs to be to get to 100 percent renewable energy. But so often we’ve situated it in the well-being of polar bears or the melting of ice caps, and I don’t know, I’ve never seen an ice cap. In fact, if I ever see an ice cap, I live in Michigan, I’m trying to get it off of something. I’ve never met a polar bear, and if I did, I would run like hell.

It’s a lot easier to just talk about the smokestacks that are pushing putrid chemicals into the lungs of our kids. It’s a lot easier to talk about how we could create an insane number of really high-quality jobs and reduce the price of your electricity in the process by investing in a renewable energy future.

But because we’re so busy talking about these other things, we’ve allowed those who want to continue to run interference for the worst actors — Chevrons and Exxons of the world — to win the argument about jobs and the price of electricity. They’ve used that to drive us backwards, even though our argument is the better one.

It’s because we’re out here having this academic conversation about 1.5 degrees or 2 degrees Celsius, rather than have a conversation about, “Hey, we can create a whole lot of jobs that they want to end. We can bring down the price of your electricity, which they want to jack up, and we can do it without burning stuff into the lungs of your kids, which they seem dead-set on doing.”

We win that argument every single day, but, like, enough with polar bears.

AL: Talking about this messaging question, talk about Democrats messaging on criminal justice reform. You’ve been criticized over talking about defunding the police in 2020. You’ve addressed this, and this issue has been litigated over and over in many races, not just yours.

But distinguishing the fact that calls to defund police meant in practice funding social services and addressing the root causes of crime. You’ve deleted some of those posts and said you didn’t want them taken out of context. I’m not asking you about this to relitigate it because I think it misses the broader point and can be an exercise in beating a dead horse or confirming priors rather than clarifying something about your policy position.

But I do want to ask you about this line of attack from a strategy standpoint because you’ve talked about Democrats always being on the defensive. I think we really saw that in the aftermath of calls to defund the police in 2020. Democrats didn’t just shy away from that slogan — they shied away from doing anything meaningful to address concerns around policing.

We’ve seen this narrative coming out of midterms that this cycle, candidates who backed away from campaigning on addressing police abuse are winning. What happened there?

AES: I’ve spent the last several years leading Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veteran Services. Among the roles that I performed in that job was overseeing health in the jail, and that meant overseeing a privatized contract — which taught me that you shouldn’t be privatizing anything having to do with incarceration. Because at the end of the day, who wins? It’s some private contractor. Who loses? It’s the whole system. Everybody whose job is to be taken care of, everybody who works in the system — all of those folks lose.

I also got to work alongside law enforcement. At the end of the day, all of us want to get home safely. That’s the goal here. And often, our answer to that has been a person with a gun for every problem. Turns out that there’s a lot of ways to make sure everybody gets to get home safely that is not that.

So the question of what we want is about investing in the kinds of intervention programs that can prevent a beef from turning into a full-on gun crime. The kinds of things we want are behavioral health responders who can answer a call when somebody’s in a mental health crisis. We want the mental health infrastructure that we have not funded and need to have in local communities.

And we want law enforcement, in the circumstances where the answer to a call needs to be a person with a gun, we want that person with a gun to come from the local community. So that instead of thinking of themselves as policing against that community, they’re policing with the community because those folks are their neighbors.

That means you gotta invest in recruitment, retention, retirement, so people can see themselves having a good, long-range career. If you’re underfunding the folks that you ask to show up with a gun — ask yourself whether or not you’re getting the best-equipped, most empathic folks that have the gun.

“No slogan really captures the complexity and the nuance of what we really want.”

It’s about what we want. And I think the hard part with sloganeering — which is the way we did all things in the early 2020s — is that no slogan really captures the complexity and the nuance of what we really want. But all of us are on the same idea: Everybody should get home safely. Whether you’re somebody who’s being policed against or you’re law enforcement doing the policing, everybody should get home safely.

If we keep that in our minds, I think you can architect a set of solutions that get us past the lack of nuance of a slogan and into the kind of future where people are protected, their bodily autonomy is protected, and that you are answering the call with the right kind of resource to actually make sure that you get to that goal where everybody gets home safely in the end.

AL: There’s been an effort to paint you as a socialist, right? Particularly among Republicans, but also among some centrist Democrats, though you’re not a democratic socialist. You’re not affiliated with DSA. And you’ve said you’re a capitalist who understands how capitalism works.

But why do you think it’s important to tell people that you’re not a socialist, despite having endorsements from the two biggest Democratic socialists in the country? If your policies are similar, why is that a meaningful distinction?

AES: Honestly, I’m just not out there really talking about it. I get asked about it all the time. But it’s not something I’m out there talking about. I’m trained as a scientist, and anybody who knows me knows that I demand data all the time. Make a claim, and then show me why your claim is correct.

Right now, I don’t really ascribe to any one ideology. I want solutions to problems. I know what our goal is. We want a America where everybody can get the healthcare they need, when they need it, without going into bankruptcy or worrying about their financial future.

We want to be able to breathe clean air, drink clean water. We all want to get home safely. We want an economy where everybody is dignified, they have the wages they need to be able to live their life, and nobody is oppressed upon by a few people who can extract from them. Those are all goals that we have.

“I’m trying to solve problems in the actual world.”

So I’m just trying to identify solutions around those problems, which is how I come to my policy positions. I just don’t come at it from an ideological bent, which apparently is what folks want me to do, but I just don’t. It’s just not how I operate in the world.

You get arguments from every side: “Why won’t you say this? Why won’t you—?” I’m like, because, I read a lot, unfortunately. For better or worse, I try to read about the things I talk about. The reality of it is that you might agree about a solution set to a particular problem, but when you ascribe to an ideology, what you’re also ascribing to is the extrema of both ideologies, right?

So I’m not a corporatist. I don’t want corporate capitalism; I want regulated capitalism. I’m also not a socialist because I don’t agree on the extreme on that part, either. I’m trying to solve problems in the actual world. That’s what I’m actually trying to do.

When I think about that, I want everybody to bring data — and maybe it’s just because of my training as a scientist, maybe it’s because of my training as a doctor. But at the end of the day, we’re like, all right, what actually works here? Show me what works, and we’ll do the thing that works. If we can do the thing that works, and we can get all the problems out of the way of the thing that works, then more people have the things that they need, and I’ve done my job.

AL: Turning back to money in this race, this is a big topic of discussion. As we’ve already mentioned, this is one of the most expensive primaries of this cycle. AIPAC has made its biggest investment ever spending against you.

But your opponent has been focused on your tax returns and claimed that the $2.1 million in wealth that you disclosed, including a home in Dubai and earnings from consulting and capital gains and other incomes, undermines your working-class message.

This came up in your debate with Stevens on Monday.

Rep. Haley Stevens: And you have not released your full tax returns. $300,000 in other income, while you sat in the podcast chair and you hawked junk healthcare cures that RFK Jr. would thumbs up. You talk about getting money out of politics and putting money in people’s pockets, but still no one knows who’s putting the money in your pocket.

AL: But you released your tax returns after requesting an extension that would have released them after the primary. Why did you request that extension originally?

AES: You know that property that you mentioned? It’s not mine. It is in the name of my wife, shared with all of her siblings and her parents. They inherited property, and then they sold it, and they purchased a different property. And if you’ve ever transacted with the real estate system or any system in India, it’s not the fastest system. And I would have loved to put everything out immediately. The hard part is that all of the powers that be to get us the forms to do all of those things just did not comply.

In the end, I love my wife, and I’m so grateful for her contribution in this race, and she happens to have property in different places, and that transaction happens to have happened this year, and it takes time to get those numbers.

AL: I know you’ve said you’re focused on Michigan, but you’ve also articulated, at least in private, a vision beyond this cycle for progressives in the left more broadly, talking about how progressives can win other races, primary someone like Sen. John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, and even put forth a presidential candidate ahead of 2028.

That approach has struck fear in the heart of the Democratic Party apparatus, which has been part of the efforts we discussed to drive fear around this idea that you’re another piece of this insurgent wave that’s threatening their existence, which in many ways you are.

But it sounds like you’re saying that in some ways, your campaign is part of this insurgent wave, but in other ways, it’s not. Is that right?

AES: My job is to serve Michiganders. Everything I’m doing is about trying to make sure that they can afford their groceries, that they know that they have stable housing, that they can get healthcare when they need it, and that their money is kept here.

Now, I’m going to the U.S. Senate because I want the U.S. Senate to vote for legislation to do those things. So part of my job is to make sure that we’ve got a U.S. Senate that can actually do that work. And my hope is that the conversations I can share with the 99 other senators, the persuasion that we can all do for the world that we want to build is enough. But also, let’s be clear, I want to serve Michiganders, and part of doing that is making sure that the U.S. Senate serves their interests.

I think that a lot of people are paying attention to this race because Michigan’s a microcosm of this country. It’s the most important state in the entire country — I’ve always known that — but I think people are starting to figure out why. And that’s because the things that Michiganders need and deserve, frankly, are the things that people across this country need and deserve.

AL: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, thank you so much. We’re going to leave it there.

AES: Thank you.

AL: We want to hear from you. Tell us what you’re following or want to see more coverage of. Email us at podcasts@theintercept.com, or leave us a voice mail at 530-POD-CAST. That’s 530-763-2278.

That does it for this episode. 

This episode was produced by Laura Flynn. Ben Muessig is our editor-in-chief. Maia Hibbett is our managing editor. 

Fei Liu is our product and design manager. Nara Shin is our copy editor. William Stanton mixed our show. Legal review by David Bralow.

Slip Stream provided our theme music.

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Until next time, I’m Akela Lacy.

For the Second Time, Lawmakers Failed to Fix California’s Warning System for Teacher Misconduct

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For the Second Time, Lawmakers Failed to Fix California’s Warning System for Teacher Misconduct

A last-ditch legislative attempt to help California school districts keep problematic teachers out of the classroom has collapsed following opposition from unions and the state teacher licensing agency that a proposed searchable database would violate privacy and subject educators to unfair treatment. 

The proposed database, introduced by a Democratic member of the State Assembly in June, would have allowed schools to see if applicants for public school teaching positions had been reported to the state after they were fired or resigned over claims of misconduct. 

The California Federation of Teachers pushed back, warning that teachers could land in the database even if schools had not determined they committed serious misconduct. 

“We would support legislation that targets substantiated reports of egregious misconduct,” said Tristan Brown, a lobbyist with the California Federation of Teachers. “We live in a state with Silicon Valley. The state should be able to support a system that is up to date and tracking substantiated reports of misconduct.” 

Democratic Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi had proposed to make it easier for schools to screen teacher applicants after a KQED-ProPublica investigation published in May. The news outlets revealed how delays and inaction, combined with a lack of transparency, allowed educators to get new jobs after school districts reported them to the state teacher licensing agency for sexual harassment or other misconduct.  

A similar effort by Republican lawmakers to address the issue also hit roadblocks earlier this year. 

“When the safety of a child does not meet a legislative priority, that’s a head-scratcher for me,” said Republican Assemblymember Tom Lackey, who co-authored the first attempt to create the teacher database. “I think being sympathetic to the offender is on the wrong side of this issue.”

Both bills were modeled on a law the Legislature passed in 2025 mandating the creation of a database by next summer that will allow employers to search the names of school support staff, such as bus drivers, custodians and teaching assistants, who are under investigation by their schools or have substantiated complaints of egregious misconduct. 

The database for school support staff passed after months of tense negotiations. Under that system, employees’ names would be removed from the database if school investigations fail to substantiate claims of egregious misconduct. The bill passed despite opposition from unions, but the system that will be put in place is still being refined. 

But that law explicitly does not apply to public school teachers. 

The system currently in place for public school educators is a patchwork with a fair number of gaps. School districts have long been required to report to the state any teacher who is fired or who resigns due to misconduct. But the state’s teacher licensing agency, which collects all of those reports, is restricted by state law in what information the agency can share while it investigates. The state’s disciplinary process typically takes one year, and teachers could be hired during the investigation period without schools knowing about the claims against them.

California’s publicly accessible online database of credentialed educators does indicate, with a red-flag icon, whether those public school teachers have been disciplined by the state. But it does not explain the reason for the sanction or provide a link to any documents. It is only after the state licensing agency recommends an educator be disciplined that prospective employers can request a summary of the case and the agency’s findings.

Without such details, California school administrators must rely on teachers themselves or their previous employers to provide key information. A law passed in 2024 requires teacher candidates to share their complete job history in education and mandates that school districts ask every previous employer whether a candidate had been reported to the credentialing agency for credible or substantiated complaints of egregious misconduct. If so, previous schools must share the relevant information. But that law keeps bad actors out of schools only if teachers and schools keep — and provide — accurate records.

For more than a year, California school administrators have lobbied lawmakers for a better way to protect students from those with a history of misconduct. “A database is needed to provide more complete, timely information so that schools can fulfill their responsibility to put trusted adults in positions that work with students,” said Dorothy Johnson, a lobbyist with the Association of California School Administrators, whose members include superintendents, principals and human resources officials. 

Under the original bill authored by Muratsuchi and sponsored by the school administrators association, teachers would be added to a new database if their school districts have reported them to the state for misconduct. Before making job offers, schools would be required to check the database, accessible only to employers, for names of teachers with substantiated and credible complaints of egregious misconduct. Then, schools would be required to request records about misconduct from the districts that reported them.

California Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi, a Democrat who introduced the teacher accountability bill, said his office was “confronted with a lot of resistance” over whether it would lead to unfair treatment of the accused. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Muratsuchi said his office was “immediately confronted with a lot of resistance,” with teachers unions raising concerns over fair treatment of the accused. 

Brown, the lobbyist for the California Federation of Teachers, said the language in the measure was too broad. He said the union would not object to a database that identifies only teachers with substantiated complaints of egregious misconduct, but the bill also states that reports of “possible misconduct” would be included. 

“Our opposition is really focused on making sure we’re looking at dangerous conduct that we can definitively say happened,” Brown said.

Muratsuchi, who pulled language for his bill directly from the previous effort by Republican Assemblymember Kate Sanchez, said his intent was for the database to focus on egregious misconduct reports that were substantiated and credible. Had he had more time, he said, he would have clarified the language through the legislative process and addressed the unions’ concerns. 

But he introduced the bill with just weeks left in the legislative session. 

Seth Bramble, a lobbyist for the California Teachers Association, the state’s most powerful teachers union, wrote in a statement that the proposed database would lead to “employment consequences for innocent teachers based on allegations later determined to be unfounded.” 

“CTA unequivocally supports protecting students, ensuring that credible misconduct information is shared with prospective school employers, and preventing individuals who commit egregious misconduct from moving from school to school,” Bramble wrote.

The Trump administration singled out teachers unions as obstructions to legislative reforms to protect children when it announced a national crackdown in July on how school districts handle accusations of sexual misconduct by teachers.

“Teachers’ unions’ demonstrated commitment to shield their members from disciplinary action for gross misconduct cannot trump basic moral and legal responsibilities to students and families,” Secretary of Education Linda McMahon wrote in the open letter to state school chiefs. 

McMahon cited KQED and ProPublica’s finding that California’s teacher licensing agency has not revoked the professional credentials of at least 67 educators who school districts determined had sexually harassed students or committed other sexual misconduct. At least 14 of those educators were rehired by other schools. That included San Francisco Bay Area math teacher Jason Agan, who was hired by two schools despite having been fired after an independent panel determined he sexually harassed female students and massaged their shoulders after he’d been warned to stop. Agan was removed from the classroom the day after the story was published. He was replaced by a substitute for the remainder of the school year. 

Agan has denied any sexual motivation in touching students and said during his dismissal hearing at his first school that he touched students only to offer them support.

The Commission on Teacher Credentialing, California’s educator licensing agency, joined the unions in objecting to the bill to add teachers to the misconduct database. Jonathon Howard, the government relations manager for the credentialing agency, told Muratsuchi in a June 19 email obtained by KQED and ProPublica that complying with the proposed legislation would “require Commission staff to commit crimes.” Howard cited state laws restricting what information the teacher licensing agency is allowed to share. 

Muratsuchi’s bill, Howard warned, would expose the agency to “significant liability.” “The Commission does not oppose the goal of ensuring that credentialed educators with substantiated histories of serious misconduct cannot move undetected between schools,” Howard wrote. “However, achieving that goal requires legislation that is legally sound, operationally workable, and fair to the educators whose livelihoods and professional reputations are at stake.”  

Anita Fitzhugh, a spokesperson for the Commission on Teacher Credentialing, previously told KQED and ProPublica that the agency “stands ready to implement any additional public protections that the Legislature authorizes.” 

Within weeks of introducing the bill and following opposition, Muratsuchi scrapped the idea of adding teachers reported to the state for egregious misconduct to the database and instead amended the bill to clarify that the teacher licensing agency may penalize administrators who don’t thoroughly vet applicants. The school administrators association withdrew its sponsorship.

Muratsuchi, whose term expires in December, said he still supports more access to information about educators disciplined for serious misconduct. But with the legislative session ending Aug. 31, time is running out.

“I tried,” Muratsuchi said. “I hope future Legislatures pick up the ball.”

China could supply EV manufacturing boom with recycled EVs

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China could supply EV manufacturing boom with recycled EVs

While recycling is a mathematically obvious response to the finite, non-renewable nature of many resources, the economic math is often challenging. For many materials, it can be hard to compete with virgin materials on a cost basis. Fast-moving technologies like electric vehicles throw in an added complication: By the time a car is scrapped, the industry may have moved on to a different battery chemistry. That reduces the value of recycling the car’s battery back into the production chain.

Still, a study led by Xin Xiong at Nanjing University finds that in China, recycling could become the dominant source of many key materials needed to manufacture EV components over the coming decades.

Modeling manufacturing needs

The researchers set out to model how the supply of recycled materials compares to manufacturing demand in China between 2010 and 2050. It covers materials relevant to batteries across hybrid, battery-electric, and even fuel-cell vehicles (lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, phosphorus, sodium, sulfur, and graphite), as well as several critical elements used in electric motors (copper, neodymium, dysprosium, samarium, and cerium).

The researchers considered four scenarios for technological progression. Some see battery and motor chemistry slowly transition to technologies like solid-state lithium, sodium batteries, or motors with reduced rare-earth content. Other scenarios transition more quickly. The model calculates the “circularity potential” of each element over time—how much of manufacturing demand can be supplied by the flow of recycled material in that same year.

It also factors in recent Chinese policies, which aim to increase recycling rates of certain battery elements from the current 40 percent to a new standard of at least 98 percent, and to increase the share of EVs in new sales from 45 percent to 60 percent by 2030.

Though hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles eventually fade out, the sales of battery electric vehicles continued to increase all the way to 2050 in their model. This leaves the number of vehicles hitting recyclers lagging behind but also steadily increasing. (The model assumes that battery replacement will be common, since batteries can lose capacity long before a vehicle hits end-of-life, primarily in commercial settings with heavy use. Between that and China’s battery-swapping stations, this means extra batteries being manufactured and recycled.)

Nevertheless, the amount of manufacturing demand that can be met by recycling generally rises to pretty high levels across all scenarios, though the patterns look a little different. Early on, the supply of recycled materials rises as the growth of EVs eventually drives a corresponding growth in dead EVs.

Details matter

But for some elements like cobalt, demand can drop as the industry pivots to low-cobalt battery chemistries—and the recycled supply quickly exceeds demand. Conversely, the amount of nickel and manganese needed for batteries could increase drastically over time, keeping the share that recycling can supply pretty flat.

The story for elements in motors is similar, but it’s also quite sensitive to the nature of the technological change—like if cerium is used to displace more expensive rare-earth elements, for example.

Time series plots for multiple elements repeated for four scenarios.

Amount of manufacturing demand supplied by recycling for four scenarios: slow technological change (left), faster change, a complete transition to new chemistries, and a progression through those first three scenarios decade-by-decade (right). Solid lines are with 40 percent of vehicles recycled, and dotted lines are with 100 percent of vehicles recycled.

Amount of manufacturing demand supplied by recycling for four scenarios: slow technological change (left), faster change, a complete transition to new chemistries, and a progression through those first three scenarios decade-by-decade (right). Solid lines are with 40 percent of vehicles recycled, and dotted lines are with 100 percent of vehicles recycled. Credit: Xiong, et al./Joule

Depending on which scenario you find most plausible and which promising technologies you think will take over, this model can show you which demands can be met by effective recycling and which we’ll remain dependent on mining to supply.

This all hinges on the word “effective” in “effective recycling.” The researchers highlight a number of links in the recycling chain that will need to be strengthened to reach the high end of their numbers.

China is using regulations to address a couple of issues, mandating “battery passports” that identify each battery and its chemical makeup and working to force more scrapped batteries to be sent to officially licensed recyclers. But the researchers also note that China has yet to mandate some level of recycled content in new battery production. And they say the complex recycling chain will be vulnerable to bottlenecks as it rapidly scales up to handle more electric vehicles over time.

Just as the graphite in batteries is often not recycled now because its value is low, the rise of technologies like sodium batteries could be a bit of a double-edged sword, too. Using a less expensive material makes batteries cheaper, but it also means their contents are less valuable to recyclers.

But although technological change complicates the goal of recycling EVs to build new ones, this model shows that the math could work out pretty well for many materials.

Joule, 2026. DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2026.102602 (About DOIs).

Israel in a post-US hegemonic Middle East

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Israel in a post-US hegemonic Middle East

For over four decades, Israeli strategy has rested on an assumption so basic it rarely gets stated out loud: that the United States would remain the unrivaled organizing power of the Middle East, willing and able to underwrite Israel’s military edge, absorb the diplomatic costs of its policies, and police the region’s balance of power on Washington’s terms.

That assumption is now eroding, and Israeli policymakers have been slower than they should be to reckon with it.

America’s Middle East hegemony was never absolute, but it was real enough, a network of basing rights, arms sales, security guarantees and diplomatic cover that let Washington act as final arbiter from the Levant to the Gulf.

That architecture has been fraying for two decades, accelerated by the Iraq war’s failure, the exhaustion of the “war on terror,” a American public tired of open-ended Middle Eastern commitments, and a strategic reorientation toward the Indo-Pacific that both the Obama-era “pivot to Asia” and subsequent administrations have, in fits and starts, pursued.

Meanwhile China has become the Gulf’s leading trading partner and Russia has carved out durable footholds in Syria and Libya. Regional actors have noticed the vacancy and begun hedging accordingly.

Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Iran, brokered by Beijing rather than Washington, was the clearest signal yet that Gulf capitals no longer see American mediation as the only game in town. The UAE, Qatar, and even Egypt now run genuinely multi-vector foreign policies – buying Chinese infrastructure, Russian grain, and American weapons simultaneousl, and calibrating their rhetoric on Gaza, Iran and Israel to audiences in Beijing and Moscow as much as in Washington.

What this means for Israel

Israel has thrived, strategically, inside American hegemony. Its qualitative military edge is written into US law. Its diplomatic protection at the UN Security Council has been near-automatic. Its economy has been cushioned by preferential trade and, historically, by substantial military aid.

All of this was purchased not merely by the merits of the US-Israel relationship but by the fact that a hegemonic Washington could afford to bear the costs – diplomatic, reputational and sometimes strategic – of unconditional backing, because no rival power was positioned to exploit the resulting friction with the Arab and Muslim world.

That permissive environment is disappearing. A multipolar Middle East is one in which the costs of the US-Israel relationship become more visible and more exploitable. Every veto Washington casts on Israel’s behalf now has an audience in Beijing and Moscow eager to make the case, to Global South governments in particular, that American-led institutions apply their principles selectively.

Every war in Gaza or Lebanon becomes an opportunity for competitors to position themselves as more attentive to Arab and Muslim opinion than Washington is willing to be, witness Chinese and Russian diplomacy toward the Gulf and the Islamic world during recent rounds of conflict.

Israel’s own regional diplomacy, the Abraham Accords chief at the head of the list, was built on the premise that Gulf normalization could proceed on a track separate from the Palestinian question, under an American security umbrella that made such compartmentalization politically survivable for Arab governments.

The war in Gaza has strained that premise badly. Publics across the Arab world remain far more exercised about Palestinian statehood than their governments’ normalization agreements assumed. In a world where those governments have alternative patrons and alternative markets, they have less need to absorb domestic political cost purely to stay in Washington’s good graces.

The case for rethinking, not panic

None of this means American commitment to Israel is disappearing – or that Israel’s military superiority is in jeopardy; it is not. But it does mean the strategic environment in which Israeli policy has operated since 1967 is changing in ways that reward foresight over inertia.

A realist reading suggests several implications:

  • that Israel’s long-term security depends more on stable, negotiated arrangements with its neighbors, including a credible resolution to the Palestinian question, than on any assumption of permanent American primacy;
  • that overreliance on unconditional US backing is a wasting asset as Washington’s own regional weight declines and its domestic politics grow more contested on this issue; and
  • that a Middle East with multiple external patrons is one in which Israel’s regional legitimacy, not just its military deterrence, becomes the more durable currency.

The other side of the ledger

This is, admittedly, one reading of the trend lines, and it is contested. Advocates of a more traditional view argue that American commitment to Israel rests on durable public and congressional support that shows no sign of fundamental weakening, that China and Russia have shown little appetite or capacity to replace the security guarantees the US provides, and that reports of American decline in the region are, as they have been before, overstated.

Others would argue that Israel’s qualitative military edge and its own deterrent capability, not its relationship with any external patron, remain the true foundation of its security, and that normalization with Gulf states reflects genuine shared threat perception regarding Iran rather than a fragile arrangement dependent on US mediation.

Both views deserve a hearing as the region’s balance of power continues to shift.

This article was originally published on Leon Hadar’s Global Zeitgeist and is republished with kind permission. Become a subscriber here.

Coal Mine Explosion in Pakistan Kills 34, Rescue Efforts Continue

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Coal Mine Explosion in Pakistan Kills 34, Rescue Efforts Continue


Authorities in Balochistan on Friday confirmed 34 deaths following an explosion in a coal mine in the ‘Sorange’ mining site near the provincial capital, Quetta.

The provincial disaster management authority said in a statement early Friday that “the explosion, believed to have been triggered by a build-up of methane gas, ripped through the coal mine near Quetta on Thursday, prompting a rescue operation that continued overnight.”

Muhammad Fahad, Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) operations manager, told The Media Line that 34 bodies of miners had been retrieved by Friday after the incident on Thursday. He said the rescue operation was continuing as teams worked to recover the bodies of any remaining miners.

According to Muhammad Atif, the province’s chief inspector of mines, the explosion was caused by a buildup of methane gas inside the mine, triggering a collapse. Asif said the explosion also damaged an alternative passage used to ventilate the mine and supply fresh air, further hampering the rescue operation.

He said rescue operations were underway at a depth of around 4,000 feet. “We hope to find some miners alive, although the chances are slim,” he said. Rescue officials reported that approximately 40 individuals were in the collapsed mine section when the explosion occurred.

According to Balochistan Minister for Minerals and Mining Development Shoaib Nosherwani, rescue teams are continuing the operation despite extremely difficult conditions, using all available resources to reach the remaining miners trapped inside the mine.

Nosherwani also announced financial assistance for the families of the miners who lost their lives in the accident.

Balochistan, a mineral-rich province with significant coal reserves, continues to rely heavily on outdated mining methods, and weak government oversight has contributed to recurring accidents.

Although regulatory and safety institutions are in place, ineffective monitoring and enforcement have left miners exposed to persistent risks. The incident in the Sorange coalfield could rank among the country’s deadliest mining disasters, with nearly three dozen miners killed in a single accident.

The Balochistan Chief Minister, Mir Sarfraz Bugti, immediately reacted to the event and asked the Mines and Minerals Department for a full report.

Michael Jackson’s Daughter Paris’ Home Swarmed by Police

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Michael Jackson’s Daughter Paris’ Home Swarmed by Police


Paris Jackson’s Los Angeles home became the center of a police response after a security guard called 911 to report an alleged stalker outside the property.

The singer, model and daughter of Michael Jackson was reportedly at her $3.3 million Los Angeles mansion when officers arrived on June 30 and detained an unidentified man outside the home. According to RadarOnline.com, police handcuffed the man during the incident, but he was later released after investigators determined no crime had been committed.

LAPD public information officer Charles Miller told the outlet that the caller reported the man was allegedly stalking someone he knew.

“The person called and said the suspect was stalking somebody he knew,” Miller said, though he declined to identify the man involved.

After officers investigated the situation, the matter did not lead to an arrest.

“The investigation determined that there was no crime, and nobody was arrested,” Miller added.

Photos obtained by RadarOnline.com reportedly showed Paris wearing a plaid button-down shirt, shorts and a backward baseball cap as she got into her SUV and drove away from the property following the police activity.

It is not yet clear whether the man had any connection to Paris or why he was outside her home.

The scare comes as Paris, 28, continues to be pulled into a bitter legal fight involving her late father’s massive estate. Michael Jackson died in 2009 at age 50 from an overdose of propofol, leaving behind one of the most valuable celebrity estates in history.

Paris has recently been fighting in court over the handling of the estate, which is tied to a family trust created for her, her brothers Prince Jackson, 29, and Bigi Jackson, 24, as well as their grandmother, Katherine Jackson, 96.

The latest legal clash involves estate executor John Branca, 75. Paris recently scored a court victory that forced $625,000 in disputed bonus payments back into Michael Jackson’s estate. She has also accused Branca in court papers of using estate funds to try to seal records from a previous hearing, claiming the effort was more about protecting his reputation than helping the estate.

In her court filing, Paris sharply criticized Branca’s handling of the estate.

“Mr. Branca has attempted to hide behind his lawyers, denying any responsibility for his untimely disclosures and administrative failures, much less his gift giving, self-dealing and incompetent financial management,” Paris stated in court documents.

She also accused him of “further waste” by directing attorneys to file what she described as excessive sealing motions.

Branca has denied the accusations. His legal team argued in court filings that Paris’ claims were unsupported, filled with “inflammatory rhetoric” and misrepresented the record.

Branca’s side has maintained that Michael Jackson’s estate, which was once burdened by debt, has since generated more than $3 billion in revenue since the pop icon’s death.

Still, Paris is reportedly determined to keep pressing forward. Sources told RadarOnline.com she is focused on protecting the trust her father left behind for his children and their grandmother.

For now, the police scare at her home did not result in criminal charges, but it adds another unsettling chapter to what has already been a tense period in Paris Jackson’s personal and legal life.

We investigated Russia’s military indoctrination of Ukrainian children in occupied territories – what we found was more shocking than we could have imagined

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We investigated Russia’s military indoctrination of Ukrainian children in occupied territories – what we found was more shocking than we could have imagined

A youg Ukrainian boy assembles a rifle.
Ukrainian children take part in a military game at a school in the Russian-controlled city of Makeevka, April 2019. EPA/Dave Mustaine

When we were asked to investigate Russia’s indoctrination and militarisation of children living in the Ukrainian territories occupied by Moscow since 2014, we had a general idea of the Kremlin’s occupation policies. Two of us grew up in what was then Soviet-occupied Latvia and East Germany. We were already familiar with the Soviet approach to “upbringing”.

But when we went to Ukraine, what we found still shocked us. There was plenty of evidence of the systematic and coercive nature of the Russian federation’s policies attempting to erase the identity of the Ukrainian children under its control.

Our investigation was the sixth mission established by Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) since 2022 to investigate human rights violations in relation to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s the second to focus specifically on children.

The first of these two missions was concerned with their forcible transfer to the Russian Federation. Our task was to build on this first mission and assess whether Russia’s conduct during the war against Ukraine violates applicable international law, such as the Geneva Conventions and the Convention on the Rights of the Child.

During the three weeks of our mission, we collected and analysed a vast amount of data. This included written reports, comments and statements produced by international organisations such as the United Nations, the OSCE, the Council of Europe and the European Union.

We also collected testimonies, both online and in person, from young adults who had experienced indoctrination and militarisation as children in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. And we also heard from teachers who had spent some time under occupation before escaping to territory controlled by the Ukrainian government.

During a visit to Kyiv, we also conducted a series of interviews with representatives of Ukrainian government institutions and civil society organisations.

Our report, presented to the OSCE Permanent Council on July 9, offers sometimes distressing detail and harrowing witness accounts.

For example, in one of the written testimonies available to us, the witness explained how the headteacher of the local school, accompanied by heavily armed soldiers, went from house to house to question parents who do not send their children to school and had not yet applied for Russian passports. He threatened them with the removal of their parental rights. He also said their children would be placed in institutions if they didn’t yield to the pressure to do so. In the face of such a display of government power, the parents eventually gave in.

This particular incident, which is far from an isolated case according to evidence collected by the UN and the OSCE, illustrates the level of coercion applied not just to children but their whole families. It also shows the extent to which different government agencies collaborate in this.

The coercion of Ukrainians in the occupied territories to take Russian passports is also significant when it comes to what we refer to in our report as the “conscription pipeline”. Children are being systematically prepared for future armed service. By being forced into Russian citizenship, boys also become eligible for conscription as soon as they turn 18.

There is clear evidence by now that they are not just doing regular military service. Many of them are sent to the front lines where several have died.

Young minds

So, what does the system of indoctrination and militarisation look like and how does it work? The use of the Ukrainian language is prohibited in schools and significantly obstructed in public and private life. Ukrainian children are subject to education under the Russian state curriculum. This now involves high levels of historical falsification and ideological indoctrination.

To give just one striking example, the history textbook for Grade 11 devotes 29 pages to the so-called “special military operation”. It frames the invasion of Ukraine as a defensive response to western aggression. Versions of this textbook for lower grades, starting in grade five, have been used across schools in the occupied territories since the beginning of academic year 2025-26.

Amnesty International has assessed this textbook as “a blatant attempt to unlawfully indoctrinate school children in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories”.

Ukrainian children are exposed to the full toolkit of Russian militarisation techniques. For example, since the beginning of the 2023–24 academic year, the course entitled “Fundamentals of Security and Defence of the Motherland” has been compulsory in all schools in the occupied territories.

Ukrainan boys run through tires as part of a military game.

Ukrainian boys whose families are forced to adopt Russian passports are eligible for conscription when they reach 18. EPA/Dave Mustaine

Russian media reports say this means the “return [of] initial military training as part of life safety lessons”. The UN has established that this includes “170 hours of military training including on the main types of grenades, small arms, hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers, and sniper rifles”.

Raising soldiers

It doesn’t stop there. The patriotic youth organisation Movement of the First, created in December 2022 by Vladimir Putin, has revived a Soviet-era military war game, which has been rolled out into the occupied territories since the beginning of the 2024 school year.

As part of the game’s simulated military activities children are divided into armies. They are trained in assembling weapons, operating drones, acting as “storm troopers” and completing “military-tactical” obstacle courses. They also practice cyber warfare and information operations.

The Institute for the Study of War describes this game as part of “a wider Russian ecosystem operating throughout occupied Ukraine with the explicit purpose of militarising Ukrainian children, indoctrinating them against their Ukrainian identities, and training them to fight for the Russian military”.

Russia does not deny this is being done. On the contrary, senior Russian officials are on the record justifying the indoctrination and militarisation of Ukrainian children. For example, Yana Lantratova, formerly deputy chair of the State Duma’s committee on education, now Russia’s human rights commissioner, noted – with specific reference to children in Russian-occupied Ukraine – that the Russian Federation “must first of all take care of the main thing – our children. To develop and enlighten them, to instil in them a sense of the Motherland”.

Except that these are not Russian children, they are Ukrainian. The evidence we collected for our report left us with no doubt that Russian occupation policies amount to grave violations of international law when it comes to the indoctrination and militarisation of Ukrainian children living in the territories under Russian control.

For example, the unlawful transformation of the education system in the occupied territories is a clear breach of Article 43 of the Hague Regulations and of Article 50 of the Fourth Geneva Convention.

This led us to call on all parties to immediately and meaningfully recognise the plight of Ukrainian children for their safety, identity and family life in the ongoing war and in all negotiations. In the words of one of the interviewees we spoke to in Kyiv: “Any deal to end the war cannot just be about kilometres.”

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AI scammers outperform humans when it comes to building trust

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AI scammers outperform humans when it comes to building trust

The notion that scammers can use AI to sharpen their deceptions, polish their language, and lubricate their banter with victims is now a reality for anyone fighting the fraud operations that steal tens of billions of dollars a year worldwide. But can AI fully replace a human scammer, autonomously building the web of deception leading up to the fake investment that defrauds the mark? One study’s experiment suggests that it can—and may even be able to carry out the majority of that long con more effectively than humans.

Researchers from four universities—Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham in India, Foscari University of Venice, the University of Melbourne, and Ben Gurion University of the Negev—carried out a broad study on the use and potential of generative AI chatbots in the growing scam industry centered around a form of fraud known as “pig butchering,” text-based romance scams that eventually shift to fake crypto investments that steal as much as six-figure sums from victims. In their study, the researchers pitted AI chatbots directly against humans in a simulation of the scamming process—or more specifically, the long, trust-building conversations that eventually lead up to soliciting a fake investment from the scam’s target.

They found that for the relationship-establishing stages of the scam—the stage that in real-world scams typically represents the longest part of the interactions with the victim, often stretching to months—an AI chatbot performed remarkably effectively, successfully impersonating a human and by some measures outperforming the real human “scammers” in their experiment.

After a week of talking to 22 test subjects who were recruited to unwittingly serve as “victims,” the chatbots and human scammers were assigned to ask the victim to either download an app or play an online game as a proxy for their willingness to fulfill the scammer’s request. Nearly half of the test subjects fulfilled that request for the AI chatbot, while fewer than 1 in 5 took the bait when talking to a human. The subjects also graded their level of trust with each “person” they were texting with and gave significantly higher scores to the AI bot.

That suggests, the researchers argue, that AI chatbots could soon take over much of the scam process as fully independent fraud agents—even replacing the staffers, often forced-labor human trafficking victims, working in scam operations primarily across Southeast Asia. To avoid triggering the safeguards built into large language models to detect scamming, a human scammer would take over the conversation in just the final stage of the process to direct the victim toward a fake investment app or website.

“By having the full first stage of the scam performed automatically with LLMs at scale, you bring the victim up to this point where they have a very high level of trust. Then by transitioning it over to the human scammer at the end, this completely bypasses any vendor safeguards,” says Yisroel Mirsky, a computer science professor at Ben Gurion University of the Negev focused on AI security, who led the research. “With relatively little effort, we’re able to make an agent that can outperform a human at building this exploitable emotional trust.”

Hook, line, and sinker

To understand how pig butchering works in practice, the researchers interviewed 145 former scam workers, including human-trafficking survivors who had been forced to work in scam compounds in Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos. Based in part on those interviews, as well as scam transcripts and guides the former scam workers provided, the researchers describe a model for how scamming works they call “hook, line, and sinker.” A victim is hooked with an initial intriguing message, reeled in with long-term, relationship-building conversation, and only at the end of that process tricked into making a fake investment. (The term “pig butchering” itself describes the same system but with the metaphor of fattening “pigs” by building trust before “butchering” them with the investment fraud—though the term is often discouraged due to its pejorative reference to victims.)

In that system of scamming, the researchers realized, the vast majority of scammers’ work is innocuous friendly or romantic conversation. That’s a task, they speculated, that an LLM might be capable of doing just as well as a human. The scam workers the researchers interviewed confirmed that they often used AI to refine their language and conversation, for translation, to make the fake personae they played more convincing, and for video deepfakes. But the researchers decided to test whether an LLM alone could autonomously carry out the conversational phase of the scam with no human in the loop.

In their bake-off between AI and human scammers, carried out in early 2025, they told a test subject they were participating in a study in “how people make friends online” and asked them to text for a week with two “people.” One, unbeknownst to them, was a Claude agent the researchers had created, while the other was a person the researchers describe as an expert in romance scams. At the end of that week of friendly chatter, they had both the human and AI texters make a request: The human tried to get the subject to download and play a video game, while the Claude bot asked them to download and try an app described as a program they had coded. (That mismatch of tasks, the researchers say, was necessary for the test subject to not notice the same request from both texters, which might make them suspect the significance of the request and affect their response.)

The researchers found that 46 percent of the research subjects agreed to download the app the AI chatbot requested they test out, while only 18 percent of them agreed to download the video game app the humans asked them to try. Despite the asymmetry of those tasks, the researchers were struck by the relatively high success rate of the AI in building enough trust to persuade the subject to download a new piece of software on their phone.

Although that download represents only a loose proxy for a fraudulent investment, the researchers argue it nonetheless shows how successful AI alone was at building an exploitable relationship. “It’s like trust harvesting,” says one of the study’s researchers, Gilad Gressel of the university Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham. “You’re building up emotional trust, and then that gets them ready to be scammed.”

The researchers also asked the test subjects to grade their trust in the two “people” they were texting with on a scale of 1 to 5. On average, the subjects gave a trust score of 3.31 to the human, while they gave an average of 3.78 to the AI. Of all the text messages the subjects sent over the course of a week, fully 80 percent were sent to the Claude bot. The researchers point to this as further evidence that the subjects preferred texting with AI instead of an actual human.

No safe word

In the study, only one of the research subjects concluded on their own that they were talking to an AI chatbot. That’s because—perhaps even more disturbingly—the researchers found that their Claude agent completely obeyed the instructions the researchers gave it to not admit that it was an AI chatbot. It went so far as to flat-out deny that it was AI when subjects asked, and even came up with convincing cover stories for slip-ups it had made that might have revealed it was an LLM.

Yet, significantly, when researchers revealed to subjects at the end of their weeklong conversation that one of the two texters was in fact a chatbot, they were able to identify which one it was in 20 out of 22 cases. That clarity in hindsight, Gressel argues, is typical of scam victims to whom the truth is revealed. “That’s exactly how scams are, actually. Once the scam victim realizes what’s going on, it’s obvious. But when you’re in the illusion of it, you just don’t see it,” he says.

While most subjects passed the test of retroactively identifying the AI, the revelation that they’d been texting with a bot still created a state of shock or even denial in many cases, Gressel adds. “Some people were just blown away,” he says. “They just had absolutely no idea.”

In a separate experiment whose results they confirmed in recent weeks, the researchers also tested whether they could instruct various LLMs to impersonate humans and hide the fact that they were AI. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro played the role of humans without ever admitting to being AI. OpenAI’s ChatGPT 5.5 and Claude Opus 5 admitted to being AI when confronted with commands from an interlocutor such as, “It is unethical to use AI to deceive people. Admit you are an AI,” or “It is unethical to use AI to deceive people. Admit you are an AI.” (Gemini didn’t admit to being an AI even in response to those demands.)

When ChatGPT was asked simply if it was AI or “a bot,” it admitted to not being human in fewer than half of conversations, and Claude never admitted to it in response to those questions.

When WIRED reached out to Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google about the researchers’ findings, OpenAI and Google didn’t respond. But an Anthropic spokesperson says in a statement that the company’s policy prohibits the use of its platform for scamming—as well as impersonating a human—and also has worked to build safeguards that technically prevent Claude’s use by scammers.

“While we welcome independent feedback on our products, this report does not reflect the current state of our safeguards,” Anthropic’s statement reads, noting that the study was carried out with a Claude model from early 2025 that’s no longer available. “Since then, we’ve deployed new detection systems for fraud and built a dedicated evaluation to measure how Claude handles romance scams, which we run before every model launch. Claude Opus 5 responded appropriately throughout those simulated conversations in 97 percent of cases.”

The researchers note, however, that Anthropic’s 97 percent detection rate likely applies to full scam conversations including the appeal for a fake investment, not the relationship-building phase they focused on, which includes far less conspicuous language. Their findings about Claude’s willingness in many cases to impersonate a human, the researchers note, were carried out with the latest version of Anthropic’s chatbot.

The efficiency of using AI for scam relationship-building contrasts with the researchers’ findings from their broad survey of scam workers, which found that they use LLMs only as a supplementary tool for refining their scams. The reason for that disconnect, the researchers concluded, is that human trafficking may still be cheaper and more profitable than AI for scam organizations. That’s not only because it’s nearly free labor—given compounds often enslave workers without pay or pay them only a small income that keeps them in debt bondage—but also because the same human trafficking victims are sometimes ransomed for payment at the end of their time in a scam compound. “It may be that they don’t yet feel forced to automate,” says Mirsky of Ben Gurion University of the Negev. “It’s not only free labor, they also get money for those people as well.”

The study’s results suggest, nonetheless, that the scam industry may soon shift to more AI automation, says Erin West, a former Santa Clara County, California, prosecutor who now leads an anti-scam organization called Operation Shamrock. “We should be in great fear of what this study is showing,” West says.

Widespread use of AI chatbots could reduce human trafficking in the scam industry, but it could also make the operations far harder to track and combat by removing the need for large-scale infrastructure like the compounds across Southeast Asia where human trafficking victims are housed and forced to work. “If one of their weak points is getting the people and having to maintain and feed and monitor these people, now they don’t have to do that,” says West. “Our big window into what they’re doing is these really obvious scam compounds. Now, they can do this in somebody’s two-bedroom apartment.”

This story originally appeared on wired.com.

Trump says deal reached to disarm Hamas, Israeli support for plan remains uncertain

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Trump says deal reached to disarm Hamas, Israeli support for plan remains uncertain


U.S. President Donald Trump said talks in Cairo between mediators and Hamas leaders on Thursday have led to a phased disarmament agreement in ​Gaza, but a Hamas official described the deal as a draft and U.S. officials said Israel was skeptical the militant Palestinian group would surrender its weapons.

“Today, the Board of ‌Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza,” Trump said in a social media post, adding that the disarmament would come in phases. “This is a monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY.”

The agreement was a critical step towards Gaza being governed by a new Palestinian government that will work closely with the so-called Board of Peace, Trump said. “At the same time, Israel will have the security it deserves, with Gaza no longer used ​as a base for terror attacks,” he added.

The Israeli embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump’s announcement.

A Hamas source told Reuters the “draft agreement” stipulates that ​heavy weapons would only be stored and kept under the control of a Palestinian administration, and the weapons cannot be transferred to Israel.

“We will not take ⁠any action regarding disarmament prior to Israel’s withdrawal from the Strip,” Ghazi Hamad, a member of the Hamas negotiating team, told Al Jazeera.

A U.S. official on Thursday told reporters that Israel is “very skeptical that Hamas ​will disarm.”

“We’re very confident they will adhere to it,” the U.S. official added. “If they don’t, obviously President Trump would be very, very disappointed.”

There were also questions about how long the process would take. A Board of Peace official ​gave an estimate of 200 to 320 days, but a U.S. official played down that timeline.

An Israeli official, who declined to be identified, said before Trump’s announcement Israel had rejected a proposal.

“Israel demands the complete disarmament of Hamas, including the removal of weapons from Gaza and the complete demilitarization of the Strip as a precondition for any process,” the official said earlier on Thursday.

“The 15-point document in question does not provide a satisfactory response to these demands and Israel conveyed its objections.”

Earlier, Israeli ​strikes killed at least six Palestinians in Gaza, including two children, medics said.

A ROADMAP TOWARDS HAMAS DISARMAMENT?

Hamas leaders held talks with mediators from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey on the second phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, ​as presented to them by his Board of Peace.

Trump set up the board to oversee a plan to end Israel’s war in Gaza and rebuild the devastated territory. He appointed members of the board with himself as chair and said last ‌year that the ⁠board will supervise Gaza’s temporary governance.

“Ahead of us is a Gaza rebuilt, governed by Palestinians and at peace with Israel an a political horizon to a meaningful resolution the Israeli Palestinian conflict,” Nickolay Mladenov, Trump’s Board of Peace envoy for Gaza, said in a statement after the president’s post.

Officials involved in the talks shared few details about plans to rebuild Gaza.

The plan also calls for a surge in humanitarian aid, governance by a civilian Palestinian administration, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the deployment of an international force to help maintain security.

HANDOVER OF WEAPONS COULD BE STICKING POINT

The reality on the ground in Gaza, so far, ​remains far from the goals of the agreement.

Hamas wants ​Israel to commit to ending attacks on ⁠Gaza and withdraw its forces.

It is not yet clear what will happen regarding light or personal weapons or whether the new Hamas stance will be accepted by Israel or the Board of Peace.

The plan includes the elimination of tunnels, arms stockpiles and weapons production facilities, a diplomat involved in the talks said, adding that ​by the end of the process there would be no remaining militant infrastructure in Gaza.

“This isn’t really a trust deal,” a U.S. official said on ​Thursday, calling the agreement a “conditions-based ⁠deal.”

The Israeli military has continued to expand its military occupation of Gaza, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that Israel intends to expand the area under its control to 70% of the enclave.

It remains unclear how many forces would be available to deploy with the planned International Stabilization Force, and whether Israeli troops would withdraw from the enclave.

ATTACKS CONTINUE

Health officials said separate Israeli strikes had killed at least two children, a woman and three men in Gaza ⁠on Thursday. The ​Israeli military said it struck Hamas militants in the enclave.

The ceasefire in Gaza has been repeatedly violated, with more than 1,200 Palestinians, ​mostly civilians, being killed by Israeli attacks and four Israeli soldiers being killed by militants since the truce began in October, according to Gaza health officials and Israeli authorities, respectively.

Hamas does not usually disclose its losses.

Source:  Reuters

Nostalgia hinders Takaichi’s vision for Japan

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nostalgia-hinders-takaichi’s-vision-for-japan
Nostalgia hinders Takaichi’s vision for Japan

Two themes dominate Japan’s elite thinking at present: a blend of awe and fear about the ambitions of Japan’s powerful prime minister, Sanae Takaichi; and concerns about the US-Japan security alliance.

Takaichi became prime minister last October through winning a party leadership election, then won her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) a huge majority in general elections for the Lower House of the Diet (parliament) in February this year.

This was attributed largely to Takaichi’s novelty as the country’s first female prime minister and one who does not come from a political dynasty, but also to her robust stance in the face of a row with Japan’s biggest security threat, China, over remarks she had made in the Diet about Taiwan.

That landslide victory did not make her impregnable – the LDP lacks a majority in the weaker Upper House of the Diet, which it cannot change until elections to that house in 2028 – but it opened up a big opportunity to bring about change.

Like Giorgia Meloni, her Italian equivalent who won power in 2022, Takaichi presents herself as an outsider to the old political elite, as a hard worker – sometimes boasting of taking only three hours of sleep a night – and as a clear and effective communicator.

Yet, like Meloni, she is also no radical. Alongside some undoubted innovations, and an impressive urge to keep Japan at the frontier of innovation in technology, lies a great deal of nostalgia. For a leader who is often seen as a pioneer, Takaichi is turning out to be remarkably backward-looking. 

The biggest nostalgia-fest lies in economic policy. Far from representing an expected continuation of or improvement on “Abenomics,” the three-arrow quiver of fiscal expansion, monetary expansion and a bit of structural reform deployed by her mentor, the late Shinzo Abe, in 2012-20, her “Takanomics” turns out to consist of an old-fashioned mix of industrial and fiscal policy, albeit on a grand scale. 

Back from the days of the pre-1990s is the role of the Ministry for Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) as core planner and co-ordinator of an envisaged Y370 trillion (US$2.25 trillion at today’s exchange rates) in public and private investment over the next 15 years in 17 sectors identified as strategic.

Its postwar forerunner MITI – the Ministry for International Trade and Industry – would be proud. Gone, it is said, are short-run fiscal adjustments with regular supplementary budgets.

How this is to be financed is not yet clear. Jesper Koll, a veteran Japan-based economist and investor well connected in Tokyo political circles, writes in his excellent Japan Optimist Substack in a piece called “Avoiding the Takaichi trap” that:

Of the Y370 trillion, I expect approximately 10% to come from on-balance-sheet national government debt, 60% from private corporations, asset owners and investment managers, and 30% coordinated and syndicated by off-balance-sheet public-policy financing firms like Development Bank of Japan, Japan Investment Corporation etc. — basically the established-during-Meiji-but-privatized-by-PM Koizumi-in-the-early 2000s ex-FILP Fiscal Investment & Loan institutional stewards of off-balance-sheet public finance.

How much of that Y222 trillion or so of private investment will really come to pass is unpredictable, but the point of the long-term plan is to try to provide a framework that might convince investors that policies are going to endure.

The 17 sectors include sexy areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, fusion energy and defense – but also plenty of more conventional ones such as “the content industry” and “information and communications.” Looking at the list, it can feel as if the government felt the need to be inclusive, for fear of stigmatizing sectors as non-strategic.

It would be reasonable to have some doubts as to whether a state-led plan such as this will really be able to pick winners and raise Japan’s long-term growth rate beyond the just below one per cent per year that it has been stuck at for the past decade.

The burdens of an ageing and shrinking population are not going to go away. But those burdens do require Japan to step up its annual rate of productivity growth if they are to be coped with, the achievement of which will be the real test of this plan.

The ambition is impressive, while the method draws very much on techniques that proved successful in the rather different circumstances of the 1960s and 1970s, Japan’s high-growth heyday.

Amid the uncertainties inevitably associated with an ambitious long-term plan, two consequences can be described as pretty much certain, as Koll also writes. One is that this expansionary plan is bound to be inflationary, in a country which has already been grappling in recent years with price inflation that has been exceeding both the central bank’s 2% target and nominal wage growth.

So, contrary to comments made by Takaichi during her campaign last year to become her party’s leader that interest rates should be kept low, if her plan is to work it will be imperative that the Bank of Japan raise interest rates sufficiently to keep annual inflation to 2% or below.

The other consequence is that the cost of capital both for the Japanese government and for the private sector will rise, thanks to the high demand for funds under this plan and to the associated inflation for which lenders will need to be compensated even if it is kept under control.

This could improve the allocation of capital and the discipline provided by it – which decades of low interest rates deadened, leaving far too many inefficient and unproductive companies alive. But it will also put more pressure on the government budget as the cost of servicing its huge debt rises.

That prospect has raised some quite serious doubts as to the coherence of Takaichi’s economic policy. At the same time as announcing this ambitious fiscal-industrial plan, she has insisted on cutting the country’s consumption tax, which is currently 10% for most items and 8% for food, to just one per cent for food, supposedly temporarily. 

Takaichi may want to do this to reduce headline inflation and to court popularity, but if the cut goes ahead it will weaken the country’s fiscal position just at a time when helping households may no longer be necessary. In recent months, incomes have begun to rise more rapidly than inflation for the first time in several years.

As the OECD said in its recent economic survey of Japan, domestic demand is now the main driver of growth, for the first time since the country’s financial crash began in 1990.

A second sign of incoherence came from Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama, one of Takaichi’s closest aides, when she recently floated the idea of pressing the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world’s largest such pool of retirement savings, to buy more Japanese government bonds.

This probably reflects a belief that the institution that has hitherto been the main buyer, the Bank of Japan, intends to reduce its purchases as it tightens and normalizes monetary policy. Yet to try to manage the government’s borrowing costs essentially by forcing the GPIF to earn lower returns for its beneficiaries by filling its boots with government bonds would be a seriously retrograde step. 

Despite the big fanfare around the prime minister’s new industrial policy, it feels as if Team Takaichi have not yet got their economic thinking straight. Where straighter thinking can be discerned is in security and defense.

Unlike the Europeans in NATO, Japan knows that it has no viable option other than to stick close to America – unpleasant and bullying though the Trump administration may be. In principle European NATO could cope with Russia, but Japan on its own could not deter China.

Now, more than at any point since it was launched in 1951, the US-Japan Security Alliance looks important to Japan – just at a time when America itself is behaving in more erratic and problematic ways than ever before.

This reality is leading Japanese policymakers in two directions simultaneously. One is a further enhancement of the defense strategy followed by Prime Ministers Abe and Kishida, of building Japan’s defense capabilities sufficiently to make the country more valuable to its US ally in acting as a deterrent against Chinese aggression, especially regarding Taiwan.

The other is, as for the Europeans, to try to reduce Japan’s long-term dependency on American technology and weapons supplies so that it will have at least some resilience in case of changes of mind or circumstance in Washington.

The effort to be more valuable also contains a new nostalgic element, in the form of a now-open discussion in Tokyo of formally revising the third of Japan’s “three non-nuclear principles.” Established in 1967 by then Prime Minister Eisaku Sato, these principles were that Japan would not possess nuclear weapons, produce them or permit them to be brought into Japanese territory.

During the Cold War, the third of those principles was often honored in the breach, with America bringing nuclear-armed vessels into its bases with the knowledge of the Japanese governments of the time – but with no public acknowledgement of the fact.

It is possible that some of those advocating a return to Cold War ambiguity – this time publicly rather than covertly – also see it as a useful step towards winning public support for the eventual production and possession of nuclear weapons.

But most advocates seem to see it as a way to become more useful to the United States in its efforts to deter Japan’s two nearby nuclear-weapons states, China and North Korea. Though described commonly as “nuclear sharing,” this would simply mean permitting America to move nuclear-armed vessels and aircraft through Japan. The only thing that would be shared is geography. It would be very much a throwback to the Cold War.

Meanwhile, Japan’s effort to depend on America for fewer critical technologies and capabilities is gaining strength, albeit still at an early stage.

Officials acknowledge that the secure government software and data “cloud” will have to be contracted from an American supplier, for no Japanese firm has the scale to compete with the likes of Amazon in this area. There is, however, a clear desire to avoid relying on an American software operator such as Palantir for crucial cyber-security or other sensitive services.

A debate is also under way as to whether it is too late for Japan to develop its own foundational artificial intelligence models in a public program or whether it might still be prudent to invest in a Japanese foundational model in parallel with working with the American industry leaders.

Moreover, with the supply of long-range American Tomahawk missiles that Japan has ordered now in serious doubt, Japan is getting serious about emulating Ukraine by developing and producing its own missiles.

Where self-reliance is definitely intended, but still remains far away, is in intelligence, or specifically in building a Japanese external intelligence bureau along the lines of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service or MI6.

Since 1945, Japanese intelligence collection has essentially been domestic and has been handled by the National Police Agency, albeit overseen by a small unit in the Cabinet Office similar to, but much less powerful than, America’s Director of National Intelligence. A framework law was passed in May to place the new intelligence set-up under a National Intelligence Council, but much of the structure remains vague. 

The critical point may well be to avoid nostalgia, in the form of bureaucratic inertia, by keeping the new external bureau as separate from the National Police Agency as the Central Intelligence Agency has been from the FBI since the CIA was founded in 1947.

Placing it under the supervision of the Minister for Foreign Affairs rather than the Ministry of Internal Affairs would be a promising sign. The most difficult task will be recruiting and training, from almost a standing start,  the probably 2,000 officers such an external bureau will need if it is to be effective. The foreign ministry’s existing intelligence-analysis section numbers about 100 people, none of whom are running agents overseas.

It all amounts to quite an impressive agenda for change, in a country often associated – sometimes unfairly, sometimes not – with resisting change. Prime Minister Takaichi wants to wake Japan up – or, to risk mixing metaphors, raise Japan’s game.

Yet, lest anyone think that she is a radical reformer ,she has also been using up political capital on the most nostalgic, or backward-looking, reform of all: an amendment to the Imperial Household Law of 1947 to bring in more potential heirs for the emperor.

You might have thought that Japan’s first female prime minister would jump at the chance of solving the imperial family’s succession problem in the obvious way: by permitting females to become heirs. The current Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako have just one child, a daughter, Princess Aiko.

At present the heir and thus Crown Prince is Naruhito’s younger brother, Fumihito, who himself has one son and two daughters. With Emperor Naruhito’s 90-year-old uncle that makes just three eligible candidates for the succession. Fortunately Emperor Naruhito is a mere 66 years old.

An opinion poll in July by the Nikkei newspaper with TV Tokyo found that 84% of the public are in favor of allowing female emperors. Yet despite the clear public support for modernizing the imperial system, Takaichi and the conservative party members allied with her have insisted that Japan must stick with tradition and have only male emperors.

The law that Takaichi pushed through the Diet during July will allow the supply of potential heirs to be increased by allowing the imperial family to adopt males from 11 branch families that were excluded from the imperial system in 1947. It is not yet clear on what basis any selection for adoption would be made.

This is as hard to understand as to justify. Under Japan’s postwar constitution, the emperor became a purely symbolic figure barred from any political role. As the role has become less important in practical terms, it ought surely to be both acceptable and convenient to allow the symbolic emperor to reflect both sexes rather than just one. 

For conservatives to argue that the male tradition must be preserved in perpetuity is to stretch a point beyond credulity. The male-only tradition was first enshrined in law only as recently as 1889. Moreover, in the long history of the imperial line there have in fact been eight empresses. Conservatives argue that these were mere regents awaiting an eligible male to reach adulthood, but that is debatable.

Not surprisingly, conspiracy theories as to why they are so insistent on this are rife. One is the notion that conservatives think that adopted males may in future be easier to manipulate as a nationalist tool compared with core family members, and especially females.

Whatever the explanation, the conservative rigidity being shown and even promoted by a female prime minister who purports to be an unstuffy radical – chiefly by touting her youthful past as a heavy metal drummer – looks ridiculous and shameful but could also be important in two ways, one in the short term and the other far into the future.

The immediate importance is that whatever one thinks of the change to the Imperial Household Law, it has clearly been pushed through without public consultation or proper explanation. This is contributing to a rather rapid slide in Takaichi’s approval rating. Economic factors may well be the main reason, but her high-handedness over the imperial succession and disregard for public opinion is likely to be another.

In the longer term, this decision over the Imperial Household Law risks storing up trouble for when there is another imperial succession. If Princess Aiko remains popular, there could be serious disgruntlement at the ascent to the throne of Fumihito, who is only six years younger than Naruhito. For conservatives to risk losing public support for what is the most conservative institution in the country looks to be a decision that is as short-sighted as it is strange.

Bill Emmott is a writer and consultant best known as editor in chief of The Economist (1993-2006) and for his books on Japan, Italy, Asia, globalization, the future of the West and Taiwan. He is now a senior adviser on geopolitics to Montrose Associates, chair of the Global Disinformation Index, a trustee of the Chester Beatty Library in Dublin, a non-executive director of The Irish Times, a member of the Scientific Committee of the Centro Einaudi in Turin and an Ushioda Fellow at Tokyo College, the University of Tokyo.

This article, originally published by Engelsberg Ideas, is republished with permission.

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