Economist Yafa Nawaf told TML that sustainably eliminating the need for wheat imports depends on continued support for producers, access to fertilizer, seed, affordable fuel, investment in irrigation networks, dams, and storage capacity
[DAMASCUS] Syria says the sharp increase in wheat production during the 2026 season could allow it to significantly reduce its reliance on imports and, at least as far as the Syrian Grain Establishment’s needs are concerned, potentially eliminate them altogether this season.
Such a shift could ease pressure on the country’s limited foreign currency reserves and reduce one aspect of Syria’s direct economic dependence on Russia, which for years has been a major supplier of wheat used in the country’s bread system.
Purchases of domestically grown wheat by the Syrian Grain Establishment have reached about 2.7 million tons, exceeding the agency’s stated annual requirement of roughly 2.55 million tons. That has prompted officials to say the establishment no longer needs to sign new import contracts for the current season.
But the announcement that imports are no longer needed raised new questions about what the claim of self-sufficiency actually means. On August 11, a new shipment of wheat arrived at the Port of Tartus through Pier 4. The identity of the importer and the original source of the wheat were not immediately clear, nor was it known whether the shipment was linked to a contract signed before the Grain Establishment announced that it had covered its requirements, or whether it was intended for needs outside the establishment’s purchases.
The shipment does not necessarily contradict the establishment’s statements. It could be tied to an earlier contract, intended for strategic reserves, or consist of varieties and quantities not covered by domestic procurement. But its arrival highlights the need to distinguish between the Grain Establishment covering its own requirements and Syria as a whole ending wheat imports.
The improvement in this year’s harvest follows an exceptionally difficult agricultural season in 2025, when drought caused wheat production to fall sharply and increased Syria’s need for imports. According to Agriculture Ministry data, wheat production that season stood at around 934,000 tons.
For 2026, however, the ministry estimates a final production figure of more than 3 million tons, driven by improved rainfall and the return of large areas to cultivation, particularly in regions that have traditionally served as major centers of grain production.
But the official figures raise a fundamental question: Does the Syrian Grain Establishment’s ability to meet its needs mean that Syria has actually regained wheat self-sufficiency?
Economist Yafa Nawaf told The Media Line that the Grain Establishment’s purchases reaching roughly 2.7 million tons are not, by themselves, enough to conclude that the country has restored self-sufficiency, because that figure represents what the agency purchased from farmers rather than total national production or the country’s overall consumption.
The Grain Establishment says its annual requirement is about 2.55 million tons. On that basis, Nawaf said, the agency can meet its own needs without importing wheat this season.
The picture becomes more complicated, however, when those figures are compared with earlier estimates placing Syria’s total annual wheat consumption at around 4 million tons.
Nawaf said the difference—about 1.45 million tons between the Grain Establishment’s stated requirement and the estimated national consumption—suggests that the two figures measure different things.
“The first figure most likely refers to the quantities the government establishment needs to supply flour and bread through its own system, while the second includes the country’s overall consumption and other uses of wheat,” she said. “Therefore, the claim that imports are no longer needed may be accurate in terms of the Grain Establishment’s requirements for the 2026 season, but it is not sufficient on its own to prove that Syria has achieved full national self-sufficiency.”
According to Nawaf, establishing self-sufficiency at the national level would require a clear wheat balance showing total production, existing stocks, consumption, quantities reserved for seed, losses, and volumes traded outside the government procurement system.
That distinction is important because the Grain Establishment purchasing more than its own annual requirement does not necessarily mean that the country’s total domestic wheat supply covers every form of consumption.
The 2026 season nevertheless represents a dramatic change from the previous year. If production indeed surpasses 3 million tons after reaching only around 934,000 tons in 2025, wheat output has more than tripled in a single year.
Nawaf said the surge should be interpreted cautiously because a substantial part of it resulted from improved rainfall and the return of large areas to cultivation, rather than solely from permanent structural improvements in Syria’s agricultural sector.
Farmers’ ability to repeat current production levels will also depend on whether wheat remains economically viable.
According to the Ministry of Economy and Industry, figures cited for the current season show that the wheat purchase price was set at about 46,000 new Syrian pounds per ton, with an additional bonus of 9,000 pounds, bringing the total return to roughly 55,000 pounds per ton.
Nawaf noted, however, that a higher nominal purchasing price does not necessarily guarantee that wheat farming will remain profitable next season. Final production costs depend on the prices of seed, fertilizer, fuel, irrigation, harvesting, and transportation.
That becomes particularly relevant in years with less rainfall, when farmers must rely more heavily on irrigation and absorb the additional costs.
Nawaf said sustainably eliminating the need for wheat imports depends on more than one successful season. It requires continued support for producers, access to fertilizer, seed, and fuel at affordable prices, and investment in irrigation networks, dams, and storage capacity.
Without those measures, she said, self-sufficiency could remain dependent on rainfall and fluctuate sharply from one agricultural season to the next.
The importance of this year’s wheat season extends beyond food security to the finances of a country with limited access to foreign currency.
Syrian political activist Mufida Ankair, who lives in Germany and follows changes in Russia’s presence in Syria, told The Media Line that Damascus’ ability to reduce or halt wheat imports could ease significant pressure on its foreign currency reserves.
The Food and Agriculture Organization had estimated that Syria would need to import around 3 million tons of wheat during the 2025-2026 season after drought sharply reduced domestic production.
At international prices of approximately $250 to $300 per ton, importing 3 million tons could cost between $750 million and $900 million, before shipping, insurance, and financing expenses.
Ankair said replacing a large share of those imports with domestic production could save Syria hundreds of millions of dollars while also reducing its exposure to fluctuations in international commodity prices and disruptions in global supply chains.
Reduced import requirements also carry broader implications for Damascus’ relationship with Moscow. During the war and its aftermath, Russia became a major wheat supplier to Syria, and grain shipments developed into part of a broader network of economic and political ties between the two countries.
But Ankair cautioned against interpreting reduced reliance on Russian wheat as the beginning of an economic separation between Syria and Russia. Russia remains an important supplier to Syria in other sectors, particularly energy, she said, while commercial, military, and logistical ties between the two countries extend far beyond grain.
“Reduced dependence on Russian wheat lessens one form of Syria’s direct reliance on Russia, but it does not mean that the economic relationship between the two countries has ended or fundamentally changed,” she said.
