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Ken Paxton Vowed to Crack Down on “Illegal Voting.” He May Have Violated Texas Election Law.

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Ken Paxton Vowed to Crack Down on “Illegal Voting.” He May Have Violated Texas Election Law.

Two weeks before this year’s primary elections, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced the creation of a tip line for the public to report people or groups suspected of voter fraud.

“Free and fair elections are a cornerstone of a thriving republic, and with the authority granted to my office by the Legislature, we will stop at nothing to uncover and stop any illegal voting activity,” Paxton said in a February news release announcing the tip line.

The announcement linked to guidance from his office about election laws in Texas, which included a requirement to be a U.S. citizen, a prohibition on collecting mail ballots on behalf of others and a warning that “it is illegal to misrepresent your residence on election records or to establish a residence for the purpose of influencing the outcome of an election.”

“You must register to vote using the address where you reside,” the attorney general’s guidance stated.

Despite his own warnings, Paxton appears to have used an address where he did not live while voting in six elections in the past two years, including in May’s runoff that made him the Republican nominee for U.S. senator, according to records obtained by ProPublica and The Texas Tribune.

State Sen. Angela Paxton said in a 2025 divorce filing that Paxton, whom she accused of adultery, moved out of their Collin County home a year earlier. But Paxton continues to list the home’s address in the northern Dallas suburb on his voter registration. Angela Paxton declined to be interviewed. A source close to the Paxtons said the attorney general has not moved back into the home since leaving.

It is unclear where Paxton has lived for the past two years, but reporting by ProPublica and the Tribune has linked him to a home in neighboring Denton County since February.

Three election lawyers told the news organizations that Paxton may have violated the same Texas laws his office cautioned about in its news release.

ProPublica and the Tribune reached out to Paxton’s campaign on June 3, 15 and 25, asking why he remained registered to vote in Collin County when he appeared to no longer live there and about his connection to the Denton County property. A reporter also left a voicemail on his personal cellphone on June 25. The news organizations sent his government office and campaign staff an email on Monday with a detailed list of questions, including a request for Paxton’s response to election lawyers’ belief that he may be violating the law. 

Paxton and his office did not reply until Monday’s email. Campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy did not answer the questions from the news organizations. Instead, she issued a statement saying that the attorney general has been “a national leader on election integrity, with a long record of defending Texas elections.” Cercy said that “attempting to insinuate otherwise and tear him down with a baseless, lie-filled tabloid story is not real reporting.”

Asked twice to provide specifics about what they believed was inaccurate, the campaign did not respond. 

Voting in an election when the voter is ineligible is a second-degree felony under Texas law and is punishable by up to 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $10,000. But prosecutors rarely bring cases challenging individual voters’ residency claims because they are hard to prove, the election lawyers said.

State courts have repeatedly ruled that there is no single way to determine where someone lives, and judges must consider multiple factors, such as where a voter sleeps or stores personal belongings. Prosecuting such cases also requires proof that a voter “knowingly” or “intentionally” broke the law.

Even if it’s clear that someone doesn’t live at the address where they are registered to vote, state law allows them to remain registered if their absence is temporary and they intend to return. The provision is commonly used by college students and military service members.

“So long as you truly intend to return, I think you’re fine,” said Beth Stevens, an election lawyer who worked for the Harris County clerk and the Texas Civil Rights Project. “When you start doing things that suggest, ‘Oh, I’ve fully moved. I’m just wink-wink saying I intend to return,’ that’s when you get into questionable territory.”

Paxton’s public and contentious split from his wife could make it difficult to argue that he intended to return to the home they own and where she continues to reside, said David Becker, a former voting rights lawyer for the Justice Department.

“I think there would be questions raised about a residence where someone does not live, does not spend the night and can in no way have the intent to continue to reside. Those would probably raise red flags in any state,” Becker said.

Becker, who is now the director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit that works to build public trust in elections, added that the situation is particularly problematic because Paxton’s job is to enforce election laws.

“Certainly, the chief law enforcement officer of the state of Texas, someone who has made claims about election integrity and made it a priority of his office, should be charged with knowing the laws of residencies of the state of Texas with regard to voting,” Becker said.

Paxton has advocated for strict enforcement of the state’s election fraud law, including in cases against voters his office alleged had falsified records about where they lived. In 2018, the attorney general’s voter fraud unit arrested nine people on suspicion of using residential addresses where they did not live to vote in a municipal election in Edinburg, in the state’s Rio Grande Valley. County prosecutors, acting on behalf of Paxton, later dismissed the charges after failing to secure a conviction against the mayoral candidate they alleged had encouraged those voters to register at false addresses. The candidate, Richard Molina, said he was innocent and said the prosecution was politically motivated.

Clark Birdsall was not the attorney on those cases but defended another resident whom Paxton prosecuted for illegal voting. Birdsall was stunned that the attorney general appears to have voted under an address where he does not live.

He called it “especially egregious that someone such as Ken Paxton appears he’s not conforming to the law.”

State privacy laws allow some politicians and law enforcement officials to shield their voter registration information from public view. Paxton does not do so. His opponent in the Senate race, Democratic State Rep. James Talarico, does. Talarico’s campaign said he lives and is registered at the north Austin home he purchased in 2022. ProPublica and the Tribune were not able to independently confirm this.

Paxton’s campaign did not raise any issues with Talarico’s voter registration. In her statement to ProPublica and the Tribune, however, Cercy said, “Talarico has actively campaigned against voter security measures” and has said he opposes voter identification requirements. She pointed to a 2021 Fox News interview in which the state representative said he opposed voter identification rules that would require Texans to provide their driver’s license number or partial Social Security number for mail ballots. Talarico said hundreds of thousands of Texans, who don’t drive, lack a driver’s license. He did not directly answer a question about Social Security numbers during the interview.

The Talarico campaign did not respond to a request for comment. 

Paxton’s living arrangements since he separated from his wife are not public, but information obtained by ProPublica and the Tribune offers some indication of where he may have been residing since February.

In mid-February, a trust bought a 5,000-square-foot home listed for $2.4 million in a gated community in Denton County, according to the appraisal district and the seller’s real estate agent. The trust did not disclose its ownership to Denton County officials. Trusts are not required to by law, a spokesperson for Travis County’s appraisal district said.

Paxton shares a separate blind trust with his wife, Angela, that they have used to purchase property and other assets. For years, the address listed for that blind trust had been an office building in Collin County. But that address was changed to the Denton County home a week after the property was purchased.

Angela Paxton said through a spokesperson that she has no connection to the Denton County home or the trust that purchased it. The trustee of the Paxtons’ trust, family friend Chip Loper, did not respond to questions about the address change.

In June, a reporter knocked on the door of the Denton County home. No one answered. When the reporter placed a letter for Paxton in the mailbox, an envelope addressed to Warren Paxton, the attorney general’s given name, was visible.

Later that week, Paxton appeared on a podcast with Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Video from the podcast showed Paxton seated in front of a fireplace and mantle that were nearly identical to those depicted in the home’s online real estate listing. One resident also told the newsrooms that they spotted Paxton in the gated community.

A two-panel image shows a brightly lit, modern living room on the left featuring a fireplace under a television and a blurred, square crop around the center of the frame. On the right, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton wears a blue plaid jacket while speaking during an interview for the “Lt. Dan Podcast” in front of the same gray fireplace mantle.
In a podcast appearance in June, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was seated in front of a gray fireplace that appeared to match real estate listings for a Denton County home. Obtained and edited for privacy by ProPublica and The Texas Tribune

Separately, the Daily Mail reported in May that Paxton had moved into the Denton County home with Tracy Duhon, whose extramarital affair with Paxton, the news outlet said, prompted his wife’s divorce filing. The Daily Mail also published a video of Paxton and Duhon that it reported was taken at an airport in Iceland in late June. The video was quickly seized upon by Talarico, who depicted Paxton as out of touch with Texans. Duhon did not respond to questions about her connection to the Denton County property or about the Daily Mail reporting.

Paxton is not registered to vote in Denton County, voter rolls show. Instead, since February, he has voted in Collin County twice: once in the March Republican primary and once in the May runoff. Each Texas county elects its own slate of local officials, which is why state law requires voters to register where they live.

Ekow Yankah, a law professor at the University of Michigan whose expertise includes election law, said Paxton’s voter registration situation should remind the attorney general of what studies have consistently shown: that intentional illegal voting is rare.

“You would think that somebody who’s going through this would learn a little bit of humility that lots of things which look on their face, like technical violations of the law, are usually explained by totally ordinary things,” Yankah said. “It’s only if you’re utterly cynical and ignore all the evidence that you make a claim that, in fact, these cases are attributable to nefarious criminal intent.”

Paxton cannot claim ignorance of the law because he enforces it, said Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. In fact, as attorney general, Paxton should avoid even the appearance that he is not following the law, Blank said.

“We expect these laws to be understandable by ordinary citizens,” Blank said. “When our elected officials who are tasked with passing and enforcing these laws exhibit troubles in engaging with the voting process themselves, that raises serious questions.”

Japan’s yen pain is Southeast Asia’s economic gain

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Japan’s yen pain is Southeast Asia’s economic gain

The Japanese yen’s collapse through mid-2026 has become one of the most consequential disruptions to hit global financial markets in decades.

The currency has slid past 162 yen to the US dollar, its weakest level since 1986 — a sharp reversal from its 1995 peak of about 80 yen per dollar. Japan’s real effective exchange rate (REER) has fallen to its lowest point in more than 50 years, a sign that the yen’s decline reflects deep structural forces rather than a temporary market swing.

The fallout has reached far beyond Japan’s shares, redrawing economic fortunes across Southeast Asia. The region has emerged as a net beneficiary of the yen’s slide — from lower debt-servicing costs on yen-denominated loans to a surge in Japanese investment and tourism — even as the same forces expose it to the risk of a sudden reversal should the yen’s decades-long carry trade unwind.

Several factors have driven the sharp depreciation. Chief among them is the persistent interest-rate gap between Japan and other advanced economies, particularly the United States.

The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest-rate policy in 2024 and gradually raised its benchmark rate to 1% by June 2026, but investors viewed the tightening as too slow and too cautious.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at around 3.5%-3.75% to contain stubborn inflation, widening yield differentials and drawing capital out of Japan and into higher-yielding US assets.

External shocks have compounded the pressure. War between the US, Israel and Iran pushed global crude oil prices over US$100 for a while. Because Japan imports roughly 95% of its crude oil from Gulf producers, soaring energy costs sharply increased demand for US dollars, adding further downward pressure on the yen.

Investor concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook also intensified after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi unveiled a $2.3 trillion public-private investment initiative without clearly explaining how it would be financed.

With government debt already approaching 240% of GDP, markets increasingly worried that fiscal expansion could overwhelm monetary policy and undermine confidence in the currency.

Uneven outcomes

The yen’s prolonged weakness has created starkly uneven outcomes within Japan. Large multinational corporations have posted windfall gains as overseas earnings translate into far higher yen revenue. Japan’s tourism boom has provided another lift, drawing record numbers of foreign visitors enjoying the cheap yen while boosting service-sector profits.

For households and smaller businesses, the story has been markedly different. Imported inflation has pushed up living costs and eroded purchasing power, even after the strongest annual wage settlements in decades; real wages have continued to fall because inflation has consistently outpaced nominal pay gains.

Smaller wholesalers and import-dependent firms, unable to pass rising costs on to consumers, have faced mounting financial strain — a factor behind the sharp rise in weak-yen-related bankruptcies in the first half of 2026.

This domestic contrast stands in sharp relief against the relative resilience of Southeast Asian currencies. The Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, Vietnamese dong and even the Indonesian rupiah have all strengthened significantly against the yen, reflecting more credible monetary management and healthier fiscal fundamentals across much of the region.

Unlike Japan, several ASEAN central banks have responded to inflation with greater flexibility. Singapore’s exchange-rate-based monetary framework, for example, has let the Monetary Authority of Singapore contain imported inflation without relying solely on interest rates.

Most ASEAN governments also carry considerably lower public debt burdens than Japan, thereby preserving policy space and reinforcing investor confidence.

Reshaped regional economy

The yen’s depreciation is reshaping the regional economy through multiple channels, including sovereign debt, foreign investment and cross-border financial flows.

For developing Asian economies carrying significant yen-denominated liabilities — particularly Japanese official development assistance loans and Samurai bonds — the weaker currency has delivered an unexpected fiscal dividend.

As the yen loses value against local currencies, both principal repayments and interest obligations shrink in domestic-currency terms. Malaysia, for instance, is expected to save substantially when its 200 billion yen Samurai bond, issued in 2019, matures later this decade. Vietnam has likewise benefited from lower repayment costs on Japan-backed infrastructure financing, freeing up fiscal room for investment in green development.

Indonesia also stands to gain. With economic growth projected to stay close to 5% in 2026, the country’s macroeconomic position is comparatively strong.

Long-term repayment obligations for Japanese-funded projects, including the Jakarta MRT expansion, have become less burdensome, easing fiscal pressure on both the national government and the Jakarta provincial administration.

Indonesia’s exports to Japan, meanwhile, are dominated by commodities such as liquefied natural gas and coal, which are priced primarily in US dollars — so export revenue has stayed largely insulated from swings in the yen.

The picture is less favorable elsewhere. In the Philippines, a weaker yen lowers repayment costs for major infrastructure projects such as the Metro Manila Subway, but it also erodes the purchasing power of remittances sent home by Filipino workers in Japan.

Converted into pesos, those earnings buy less than before, weakening household consumption at a time when families are already grappling with elevated domestic inflation.

Carry-trade risk

Despite the yen’s sharp depreciation, Japan’s structural challenges — a shrinking population and chronic labor shortages — continue to push manufacturers to relocate production to Southeast Asia.

Japanese firms have steadily expanded their overseas manufacturing footprint, with offshore production accounting for more than 36% of output in fiscal 2024. That trend suggests ASEAN remains the region’s preferred long-term manufacturing base, regardless of short-term currency swings.

At the same time, even as Japanese companies continue to invest abroad, the weak yen has made domestic Japanese assets more attractive to foreign buyers. Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, GIC, has been among the most active, channeling capital into premium hotels, logistics facilities and commercial real estate in Tokyo and Osaka.

The historically strong Singapore dollar has significantly boosted the purchasing power of regional investors seeking long-term assets in Japan.

Overall, ASEAN has emerged as a net beneficiary of the yen’s depreciation. Lower debt-servicing costs, continued Japanese foreign direct investment and opportunities to acquire undervalued assets have all strengthened the region’s economic position. But these gains shouldn’t breed complacency.

The greatest threat is a sudden reversal in global markets triggered by an unwinding of the yen carry trade. For years, investors have borrowed cheaply in yen to finance higher-yielding investments worldwide, a strategy that has flourished because Japan’s ultra-low interest rates and weak currency kept borrowing costs exceptionally low.

That equilibrium could change abruptly if the Bank of Japan speeds up monetary tightening toward a neutral policy rate of around 2%, or if Japan’s Ministry of Finance launches a large-scale foreign-exchange intervention that rapidly strengthens the yen.

Either scenario would force investors to unwind leveraged positions, buy yen to repay loans and sell off riskier assets across global markets.

Such a synchronized reversal would extend well beyond Japan. Emerging-market equities, bonds and currencies, including those across ASEAN, could see sharp capital outflows as investors scramble for liquidity.

Past episodes of carry-trade unwinding show that these adjustments can spread rapidly through global financial markets, amplifying volatility far beyond the original shock.

As such, regional policymakers should treat today’s favorable conditions as a chance to strengthen financial defenses, not as a guarantee of lasting stability. Central banks, including Bank Indonesia, should reinforce macroprudential safeguards, build up foreign-exchange liquidity buffers and deepen bilateral currency-swap arrangements under the ASEAN+3 framework.

These mechanisms would serve as an important first line of defense if global liquidity conditions were to tighten abruptly.

The weak yen has undoubtedly delivered tangible economic gains for much of Southeast Asia, from lower external debt burdens to sustained investment inflows to cheaper holidays in Japan.

But those benefits depend on an unusually benign financial environment. If the forces behind the weak-yen era reverse, the same economies now enjoying its advantages could quickly face renewed financial turbulence.

For ASEAN, then, the weakening yen should be seen not simply as an economic windfall but as a reminder that currency movements can redistribute opportunity and risk with remarkable speed.

The region’s true resilience will depend less on the yen’s direction than on the strength of its own institutions, prudent macroeconomic management and its readiness for the next shift in global capital flows.

Ronny P Sasmita is senior international affairs analyst at Indonesia Strategic and Economic Action Institution, a Jakarta-based think tank. He holds a PhD from the University of Tokyo.

The plan to make climate science harder to erase

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The plan to make climate science harder to erase

When Rebecca Lindsey was fired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last February, the first thing she did was stew. Then she worried about what was going to happen to the website she and her team had built over the last decade and a half. Lindsey had long been the lead writer and editor, and more recently the program manager, of Climate.gov, a site that distilled the agency’s research on climate change into easy to understand, free resources for the public. 

She was right to be concerned: Within a matter of months, the Trump administration had eliminated the rest of the staff supporting Climate.gov and shut down the website — ironically, to comply with an executive order calling for “restoring gold standard science.”

“I couldn’t stand the thought of it all being thrown away,” Lindsey said of the website, which had been used by teachers, community leaders, and policymakers. It had also given researchers in the government important insight into what everyday Americans needed to know about climate science and how to answer their questions effectively. Members of the former Climate.gov team met periodically to discuss what could be done to preserve the work. By the end of last summer, they’d decided to create an independent version of the site. It launched late last month with a new nongovernmental domain: Climate.us. 

The intent behind Climate.us isn’t just to save what was on the Climate.gov website when it died, but to continue to update it with new visuals, explainers, features, and Q&As, making climate science relevant to people with resources that are vetted by scientists. “We just try to constantly take the pulse of what scientists say is valuable and important and needs to be talked about and explained,” Lindsey said.

Since its launch two weeks ago, the new site has gotten about 800,000 page views — an impressive number, considering that the old NOAA site had been getting about a million views a month, according to Lindsey.

Read Next

After President Donald Trump took office a second time, some of the most easy-to-understand resources to help people understand the warming planet disappeared. The National Climate Assessments, congressionally mandated reports released every four years that translated the science into warnings for policymakers and the public, vanished last summer. In December, the Environmental Protection Agency removed at least 80 webpages about the causes, indicators, and effects of climate change. The EPA webpage explaining the causes of climate change no longer lists human activity as a direct driver of global warming. It now emphasizes — misleadingly — natural processes. 

Izzy Pacenza, who monitors government websites for the Environmental Data and Governance Initiative, called it “an all-out assault on climate information.”

A woman holds a protest sign that says 'science makes america great'

Thousands gather at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C., to defend science as a public good and central pillar of social progress in March 2025. Astrid Riecken / The Washington Post via Getty Images

Beyond the federal government

As organizations race to fill the gap left by the United States’ attack on its own scientific knowledge, many experts see an opportunity to shield research and data from the shifting winds of politics. The world’s science has relied on massive support from the U.S. government, but experts see a future that disperses some of its responsibilities, including how data is collected, handled, preserved, and used.

“It can’t just be the federal government anymore,” said Janice Lachance, executive director and CEO of the American Geophysical Union, the largest Earth and space organization in the world. “That’s proven to us that that’s unreliable, that there’s too much control in very few hands. And so how do we distribute this to like-minded organizations, civil society, and [nongovernmental organizations] who care about it?

The American Geophysical Union is trying to fill the void where it can. It has launched a global initiative to ensure that environmental datasets are more resilient against threats such as political interference, pulling together a group of about 100 experts around the world. It’s also working with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading authority on climate science, hosting an academic network that allows U.S. scientists to participate in key international reports even after the Trump administration withdrew from the group. Along with the American Meteorological Society, it has also released an invitation for climate manuscripts to maintain the research momentum of what would have been the sixth National Climate Assessment, with plans to eventually publish a special climate collection across different peer-reviewed journals.

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For many former federal researchers like Lindsey, trying to carry on their previous work at nonprofits and through independent initiatives has been challenging. 

Adam Smith, who led a project tracking billion-dollar weather and climate disasters at NOAA before the agency ended the program last year, has taken the work over to the nonprofit Climate Central. The project is now up and running with all the same data and methods, but it took almost a year to get it fully where it was back at NOAA. The research is important, Smith said, because it quantifies the economic effects of extreme weather, helping to communicate the real-world consequences of climate change to businesses, policymakers, and the public. He is working to develop the project further, documenting disasters that cost $100 million or more back to 1980. 

Creating an independent copy of the Climate.gov site wasn’t easy, either. Researchers who had no experience fundraising had to crowdsource money and court philanthropists to back their work, Lindsey said. Web developers had to update all the old links that directed people to the defunct original site. The Climate.us team wanted independent scientific review for their materials, as they had done at NOAA, but some scientists declined to put their names on a defunded federal project because of unwanted publicity or fear of retaliation. 

Lindsey managed to revive the site as one of just three full-time staff, compared to roughly eight people who were running the operation under NOAA full-time. 

“In a lot of ways, I feel I’m back in 2010 when we first started building Climate.gov,” she said. “There are days when I think, ‘What am I doing? Do I have it in me to start this all over again?’”

These efforts to save climate information are crucial, experts said, but it’s tough for a patchwork of nonprofits, universities, and independent initiatives to fill the vacuum left by the federal government removing the most accessible resources about climate change. “No nonprofit is going to have the reach of the federal government, and so I think that there’s a massive gap in terms of people learning about where they can find these resources,” said Gretchen Gehrke, an environmental and public information researcher who co-founded the Environmental Data and Governance Initiative. Philanthropic funders can be fickle, too, raising questions about financial sustainability. “Truly, all of us are scrambling for funding and underfunded,” she said.

Nonprofits also don’t have the instant recognition that the government does, which can make it harder to earn public trust. When Smith started running the billion-dollar disaster project at Climate Central, for example, he found that some people didn’t know that anyone from NOAA was still involved. Now, the top of the website makes it clear that Climate Central is continuing NOAA’s dataset, with the same methods and the same lead scientist. 

Photo of a sign reads

A sign that reads “NOAA Saves Lives” is seen in a corridor of the University of Colorado at Boulder in Boulder, Colorado, on May 12, 2026. Ulysse Bellier / AFP via Getty Images

From rescue to reform

For information and data advocates, the current crisis is a wake-up call. “Guess what? We have really terrible and really insufficient data policies,” Gehrke said. As the Trump administration tests those vulnerabilities, it gives these stakeholders insight into what needs to change to protect government information from the political whims of future administrations. That could include writing specific requirements for agencies into law and building up Congress’ oversight capacity and enforcement mechanisms. 

When public-facing platforms like Climate.gov disappear, people tend to wonder, How can we bring this product back? without examining the structural failures that led it to be vulnerable in the first place. Sonia Wang, senior director at the Data Foundation’s Center for Climate and Environmental Data, uses the metaphor that people usually focus on the fountain — the shiny map or platform — rather than the plumbing behind it. This invisible infrastructure is much more fragile than people realize, Wang said, sometimes relying on one person who’s been maintaining a dataset for decades, or relationships the federal government has built over time. 

“This was always a problem, regardless of administration,” Wang said. “I think we’re just seeing more of the cracks be exposed now with the rapid decline in some of our federal partners being able to actually carry on their work without the staff.” 

As organizations work to shore up the plumbing of the data that helps us understand the world, there’s increasingly a sense that they can’t count on government support like they did in the past. “It happened in the United States last year, and it continues this year, but it could happen anywhere,” Lachance said. “And we just don’t think that critical scientific data should be vulnerable to the political winds of the day.” 


The Weather Channel’s streaming app gets a 67 percent price hike

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The Weather Channel’s streaming app gets a 67 percent price hike

People who pay for a subscription to livestream The Weather Channel via its dedicated smart TV app are seeing a 66.7 percent price hike.

The TV app, available via Android TV, Fire TV, Roku, and Samsung TVs, used to cost $3 per month, or $30 per year. According to the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine, those prices were valid as recently as April 2026. Now, a subscription to the streaming app is $5 per month, or $50 per year, as first reported today by Cord Cutters News.

In addition to livestreaming The Weather Channel’s broadcast network, The Weather Channel TV app also offers on-demand shows, local forecasts, maps, radars, and news. The app launched in May 2022, allowing people to access The Weather Channel’s reporting without a cable or satellite TV subscription.

Interestingly, the new $5 per month price matches what Allen Media Group, which bought The Weather Channel in 2018, wanted to charge for The Weather Channel Plus, which a 2021 press release described as a subscription service that would have over “50 news and entertainment streaming channels for a launch in the fourth quarter of 2021” and that its owner expected to reach “30 million subscribers in its first five years.” The Weather Channel Plus never actually became available. Instead, The Weather Channel is only getting its streaming subscription revenue from the original app, which does not include dozens of streaming channels.

The change in plans and subsequent price hike of The Weather Channel’s TV app shows how fickle the streaming industry can be, especially when it comes to legacy media companies’ roles. Many organizations that succeeded in the broadcast era are struggling to find the right value proposition, including prices, for the streaming era, while ensuring they have a place at the table. Even successful streaming TV providers are struggling to manage the infrastructure, app development, licensing costs, user support, and other expenses associated with running an attractively priced, always-on streaming service that can maintain profitability.

The Weather Channel faces an uphill battle as people have more options for weather reporting than they did during the network’s prime. Besides local news stations, the channel is competing with websites and free and paid-for mobile apps—including, respectively, Weather.com and The Weather Channel iOS and Android apps, which are all owned by a separate company, private equity firm Francisco Partners—and personal smart home devices. While likely facing declining advertising dollars for its broadcast channel, The Weather Channel is challenged to pay for the technology, tools, and staff needed to provide accurate, real-time weather reports, news, analysis, and additional programming on the channel and TV app.

Accessing any of The Weather Channel’s rivals could be viewed, depending on the user, as more convenient than opening a dedicated app that they downloaded onto their smart TV. With a 67 percent price hike also now in tow, The Weather Channel’s niche TV app subscription may be perceived as even less convenient than before.

Save the United Nations by abolishing the Security Council

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Save the United Nations by abolishing the Security Council

The race to replace outgoing UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is underway, and as of today, five contenders are vying for the post. As part of the selection process, all the contenders have made public their vision for the United Nations and how they see the role of the secretary-general.

Assuming all the contenders have been truthful, it is clear from their statements that none has the least idea about what the job entails, what its constraints are or how it should be presented in the future.

The United Nations was born from a dream that never materialized, in a world that never existed. At its core, it embodied the vision espoused by President Franklin D. Roosevelt of a post-World War II order that would seek to prevent wars through collective security, international cooperation and a mechanism to address conflicts before they erupted into open confrontation.

However, these lofty principles did not survive the drafting of the UN Charter, which took effect on October 24, 1945.

In essence, the UN is a club with two forums: a General Assembly in which all members are represented, and a Security Council with five permanent members and 10 members elected on a rotating basis.

Each of these two pillars is subject to one major constraint: General Assembly votes are not binding and can simply be overlooked, making them little more than a show for all practical purposes.

Security Council decisions, while binding in principle, are subject to the veto of one or more of its five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

From its very inception, the club was subject to a built-in limitation, for one overriding reason: none of the five main members was willing to subject the exercise of its national sovereignty to the dictates of an outside entity.

Compounding this structural imbalance, each member is charged an annual fee based on a complex formula that includes its wealth. The result is that 10 members currently pay 75% of the total membership fees, while the remaining 183 members pay at most about 25%.

The two bookends marking the club’s history between its inception and the end of the Cold War were Korea and Iraq. Following North Korea’s invasion of South Korea on June 25, 1950, the UN Security Council authorized the use of force to repel it.

That decision was possible only because of an unexpected circumstance: The Soviet Union was boycotting the Security Council at the time and thus was not present to cast its veto — an oversight the Soviets never repeated.

The result was an American intervention under UN sponsorship, with two caveats: the absence of a veto, and the willingness of a state — in this case the US — to commit troops to the effort.

Over the following half-century, the veto power left the Security Council largely unable to authorize the use of force, and every subsequent conflict, from the Middle East to Vietnam to India-Pakistan, played out beyond the UN’s purview.

On March 20, 2003, the US invaded Iraq. Before the invasion, Washington had tried, albeit informally, to obtain Security Council endorsement. When that endorsement failed to materialize, the Bush administration went ahead unilaterally.

The invasion of Iraq underscored a reality no one had been willing to confront: If a state holding the right of veto decides to use force and has the means and the will to do so, the international system as defined by the UN Charter is powerless to stop it. Put another way, the multilateral security system defined by the UN Charter is essentially a sham.

The UN that emerged from the Cold War and its aftermath is essentially a three-legged stool. It includes the Secretariat; the “technical UN,” made up of 15 specialized agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization, the International Telecommunication Union and the World Health Organization; and, last but not least, the “political UN,” composed of the General Assembly and the Security Council.

To say that the political UN, as conceived by its founders, is broken is an understatement. With two major conflicts ongoing — one in Ukraine, one in the Middle East — not counting a number of smaller regional conflicts in Africa and Asia occurring entirely outside the organization’s purview, the political UN as an instrument of collective security has become irrelevant.

Conversely, the technical UN — the specialized agencies — has demonstrated its usefulness, with occasional peaks of excellence, albeit with one caveat: Left to themselves, bureaucracies show a tendency to grow beyond reason, especially when unsupervised by member states careless in their funding.

Reviewing the oversight mechanism and delegating it to the private sector, rather than to timorous diplomats from member states with no administrative or management training, should be a priority.

The UN is a member-driven organization. The upshot is that if members want the system to actually work, rather than serve as an occasional Band-Aid on a wooden leg, its core — the political UN — must be redrawn.

Changing the UN to adapt it to today’s political environment means changing its Charter, and most specifically, the articles relating to the political UN.

While the General Assembly can endure in its present form, the first and fundamental requirement is to abolish the Security Council. Doing so would eliminate both the provision that its resolutions are binding and the right of veto, thus making the body acceptable to all governments.

In its place, eight regional security committees should be set up — for the Americas, Africa, Europe (including Russia), the Middle East, Central Asia, Asia and Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Each would be autonomous, with its own rules of procedure and funding.

Membership would include all the states of the respective regions, allowing them to focus on regional issues rather than be distracted or held hostage by other considerations. Granted, the Regional Security Committees would not free member states from concerns about the global balance of power.

But by providing a regional mechanism to address regional problems, they would go a long way toward either finding regional solutions or ensuring regional problems do not escalate into larger confrontations.

UPDATED-Bomb attack rocks Damascus during Macron visit

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UPDATED-Bomb attack rocks Damascus during Macron visit


Two bombs exploded near a hotel ‌in Damascus where French President Emmanuel Macron had spent the night, but his office said he did not hear the explosions and he met Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa soon afterwards on Tuesday.

Syrian authorities said 18 people were wounded by the blasts, overshadowing the first visit to Syria by a European Union head of state since Sharaa toppled Bashar al-Assad in 2024, and underlining continued security threats in the country.

The ​explosions struck a busy area between the Syrian Tourism Ministry and the national museum across the street from the Four Seasons hotel, where a source in Macron’s ​delegation and Syrian security sources said he had spent the night and had met civil society groups on Tuesday morning.

In a ⁠post on X, Macron said his visit to Syria continues.

“Nothing can undermine the desire of Syrians to live in a fully sovereign and secure Syria,” he posted. “This morning I ​met Syria in all its diversity, and I saw dignity, courage and determination.”

FLAMES AND SMOKE BILLOW FROM TRASH CAN

The first blast hit soon after Macron’s motorcade left for ​the presidential palace. Reuters footage showed flames and smoke billowing from the site, when a second explosion was caught on camera a few metres (yards) away.

The second blast went off next to an ambulance parked at the scene, where some two dozen people had gathered. Emergency personnel worked to extinguish the blaze, with smoke and flames close to the shops behind.

Reuters video showed Macron’s motorcade heading ​along a highway towards the presidential palace before the blasts. A video published by Syrian state media then showed him standing alongside Sharaa and meeting other Syrian officials and ​military officers.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack.

Sharaa, a former al Qaeda commander, has been working to stabilise and rebuild Syria since leading rebel forces that toppled Assad after ‌more than ⁠13 years of civil war, building close ties to Western and Middle Eastern states that opposed Assad.

Islamic State, an adversary of Sharaa during the civil war, has claimed a series of attacks on government forces in Syria since February, when the jihadist group announced what it described as a new phase of operations against his government.

DAMASCUS CAFE BOMBED LAST WEEK

The Syrian Interior Ministry said security forces had identified two bombs planted near the Tourism Ministry and had been preparing to defuse them when they went off, describing the ​devices as crudely made.

The bombs — one ​of them placed in a car parked ⁠on the roadside and the other in a trash can — were planted outside a security cordon around Macron’s place of residence, and posed no threat to his visit, the ministry said.

Internal security forces have launched search operations to identify those responsible, it said.

The French ​Presidency said the blasts were not audible from the presidential motorcade and a Reuters journalist with the press group accompanying Macron did ​not hear the blast or ⁠see any commotion during the French president’s morning events.

Last week, a bomb at a Damascus cafe killed nine people and wounded 20 others. There was no claim of responsibility.

Macron’s visit was intended to highlight Syria’s political transformation under Sharaa.

During the Syrian conflict, a range of militant groups including Islamic State gained a foothold in the country.

Sharaa, a member of Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority, ⁠has pledged to ​build an inclusive new order in Syria since ending more than five decades of iron-fisted rule by ​the Assad family. But his promise has been tested by bouts of violence, opens new tab pitting pro-government forces against members of religious and ethnic minority groups, with many hundreds killed last year.

Pakistan Launches New Iran, China Trade Corridors to Bypass Afghanistan

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Pakistan Launches New Iran, China Trade Corridors to Bypass Afghanistan


Pakistan has launched two new overland trade corridors through Iran and China, offering Central Asian countries alternative routes to Pakistani ports after Islamabad closed its main transit crossings with Afghanistan because of security concerns.

The corridors, which became operational in April 2026, run through Iran’s Gabd-Rimdan border crossing and China’s Sost Dry Port. They were introduced after Pakistan indefinitely closed the Torkham and Chaman crossings in October 2025 following persistent cross-border militancy.

More than 14,000 metric tons of cargo have already been transported through the two routes.

One corridor was formally inaugurated during a coordination ceremony in Karachi attended by senior representatives from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Pakistan presented the routes as a permanent alternative for Central Asian countries seeking access to global markets without relying on Afghan transit. The first convoy carried frozen meat and other exports to Tashkent and Bishkek through Iran.

Pakistan also dispatched its first export shipment from the Karachi Export Processing Zone to Kyrgyzstan via the Sost Dry Port under the TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers) regime. The 3,300-kilometer Bishkek-Karachi corridor, operating under the Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement has since completed its first reciprocal commercial shipments, with Kyrgyz transport fleets delivering minerals and textiles to Pakistan.

Separately, the Hemani Group transported a 23.9-tonne consignment to Kyrgyzstan using the Pakistan Single Window (PSW) electronic customs system.

The new corridors provide Central Asian countries, including Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, with overland access to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan while bypassing Afghanistan. Uzbekistan has already begun using the Gabd-Rimdan route to transport agricultural equipment and industrial raw materials.

Pakistan is also expanding the role of Gwadar Port within Phase 2 of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Located about 400 kilometers east of the Strait of Hormuz, the port is expected to handle increasing cargo volumes moving through the new land corridors as regional trade routes continue to diversify.

The new network also expands the use of the TIR transit regime and the Pakistan Single Window system, which electronically processes customs documentation for cross-border shipments.

Facing US export controls, China’s DeepSeek plans to make its own chips

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Facing US export controls, China’s DeepSeek plans to make its own chips

DeepSeek, the Chinese startup developing large language models that are competitive with those from US companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, is planning to enter the silicon business, according to Reuters.

Citing three people familiar with the matter, Reuters writes that DeepSeek has been working on a move into silicon for about a year. It has been meeting with potential partners in the hardware and silicon space and has been hiring engineers for the project.

The focus is on data center chips for inference, not training, and the goal is likely to reduce reliance on both Huawei and Nvidia.

Nvidia is the chipmaker for most AI companies in North America and Europe, but a United States export ban has prevented the company from achieving a similar presence in China. Huawei controls about half of the data center chip market there, and DeepSeek isn’t the only one trying to enter; Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Baidu have been making moves, too.

While chip export controls in the US are a major reason this is an urgent concern for DeepSeek, US-based AI companies are making similar chip plans.

For example, OpenAI and Broadcom jointly announced Jalapeño, the former’s first chip designed for inference at scale, just a couple of weeks ago. Anthropic, too, has been exploring custom chip design, though there have not been any publicly visible milestones yet.

In OpenAI’s case, it’s partly a play to reduce its reliance on Nvidia, but it’s also a desire to have Apple-like control over the entire tech stack for its products. Further, getting in at the silicon and data center levels can be an advantage in a market where data center access is likely to remain constrained, with multiple companies competing for compute as they scale up their AI models and services.

How Local Cops Are Running With Trump’s NSPM-7 Attacks on Antifa

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How Local Cops Are Running With Trump’s NSPM-7 Attacks on Antifa


A month after Donald Trump issued an executive order purporting to designate antifa as a domestic terrorist group, an intelligence unit inside the Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office in Florida sent out a confidential bulletin.

Trump’s announcement was widely criticized as a legally baseless attempt to criminalize his enemies on the left, but the Southeast Florida Fusion Center took it very seriously.

Citing sources that included right-wing social media accounts, the bulletin described antifa as a “decentralized autonomous network of cells” that “stand against capitalism and want to overthrow governments they feel are oppressive through violence and silence their opposition by any means necessary.”

“Antifa has been very active, their most prevalent presence during the George Floyd riots and recently during the anti-ICE protests,” it said, citing the 2020 national uprising against police brutality and the protests against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement that followed Trump’s rise to power.

The Miami-Dade bulletin went on to describe the National Lawyers Guild — a left-leaning collective once villainized by Joseph McCarthy — as the “legal representative” of antifa. It also warned about the danger of zines as tools to “recruit new sympathizers” and of inflatable animal costumes as a “form of propaganda implemented by Antifa to soften their image.”

It was just one example of how, as the administration accelerates its crackdown on left-wing organizers, Trump’s push to paint antifa as a terror group has seeped into local law enforcement.

Previously unreported documents obtained by The Intercept show how local fusion centers are borrowing the tone and some of the language of Trump’s invectives against the left. They draw on his September 22 executive order designating antifa as terrorists and on prosecutions launched after a similar but more wide-reaching directive issued three days later, known as National Security Presidential Memorandum 7, or NSPM-7.

“The tone set by leadership is important,” Brendan McQuade, a University of Southern Maine professor who studies fusion centers and domestic surveillance, said of the documents obtained by The Intercept. “In the Trump administration the incentive structure is clear: Trump wants to mobilize the security apparatus against his perceived enemies, and in some sense the FBI and the Florida fusion center are both responding to that incentive structure.”

A White House spokesperson said the administration’s approach was part of a “new law enforcement strategy.”

“The President’s Memorandum is focused on investigating, disrupting, dismantling, and prosecuting individuals and entities engaged in organized political violence and domestic terrorism,” said White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson. “The Trump Administration will get to the bottom of this vast network inciting violence in American communities.”

The Florida Report

The Florida report was among a trove of scores of such documents obtained by The Intercept that were distributed through a national network of fusion centers.

Fusion centers were created after the September 11, 2001, attacks to facilitate information sharing about terror threats between federal and local law enforcement. Independent reviews, however, have found few tangible results after more than two decades in operation and countless dollars of federal funding for the centers. Critics say they have often been used to cast dissent as suspicious.

Many of the fusion center memos and bulletins focus on mundane topics of interest to local cops, such as the latest trends in ATM card “skimming.”

Others focus on foreign terror threats, such as the latest edition of “Inspire,” Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s magazine.

Some of them, however, echo the Trump administration’s obsession with the left.

The Florida report, which is marked “for official use only,” stretches 28 pages. It starts off by defining antifa as terrorism and stating that the “goal of Antifa is the violent overthrow of the United States government.” (The Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office, which houses the Southeast Florida Fusion Center, did not respond to a request for comment.)

Then it reproduces in full Trump’s executive order claiming to designate antifa as a “domestic terrorist organization” — a power he would not have even if antifa were a well-defined group rather than an ideology or movement.

Throughout, the Florida report leans heavily on right-wing sources, including the journalist-provocateur Andy Ngo, the Pizzagate conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec, and an X account called Far Left Watch.

The report casts a wide variety of First Amendment-protected activities as antifa tactics, including using “profane language against law enforcement” and “doxing.” It warns that zines are used as “educational tools and offered as propaganda to recruit new sympathizers” — echoing an argument that federal prosecutors used against the defendants in the Prairieland ICE detention center protest case.

Police, the Florida report says, should also be on the lookout for inflatable animal costumes, in an apparent reference to the Portland Frog Brigade: “This is a form of propaganda implemented by Antifa to soften their image and change the narrative that they are a violent domestic terrorist organization.”

The document’s tone and reliance on partisan sources make it read “like opposition research,” McQuade said.

“This is not an intelligence bulletin about an organization,” he said. “This is like a target package that, to me, is encouraging police to go hunting for a very broad profile of not even just dissent but sometimes aesthetic markers of dissenting behavior.”

Target: Lawyers

The report devotes a full page to the National Lawyers Guild, the legal collective founded in 1937 as a colorblind alternative to the American Bar Association, which forbade Black members.

The group’s leftist sympathies have long drawn the ire of the right. In the 1940s and 1950s, it was infiltrated by J. Edgar Hoover’s FBI and mentioned in McCarthy’s infamous Senate hearings. More recently, the group has become an obsession for right-wing think tanks such as the Center for Security Policy and the Capital Research Center.

The Florida fusion center casts the National Lawyers Guild’s efforts to observe police on the streets and defend protesters in court in sinister terms, calling it antifa’s “legal representation.” That is laughable, said Xavier de Janon, director of mass defense for the National Lawyers Guild.

“I don’t know what that means, because antifa is not an organization,” he said, adding that if it were true, the group would proud to fight fascism. “But again, it’s false. It’s just not based on truth. There is no retainer agreement with antifa.”

And beyond that, he said, “NLG as an organization does not provide legal representation. Its members do.”

The report included a picture of National Lawyers Guild legal observers wearing their trademark lime-green hats, which de Janon interpreted as essentially a call to target them.

Pro-Palestine Groups

While the Florida report drew heavily from White House messaging, a different report from Texas relies on court filings from the Justice Department.

In December, the Dallas Regional Fusion Center produced an “intelligence brief” centering on the Turtle Island Liberation Front, a left-wing group accused of plotting coordinated bombing attacks in southern California.

The small group appears to have been thoroughly infiltrated by a paid informant and an FBI agent. The Dallas fusion center argued for even more surveillance, citing a “tangible and immediate threat from newly formed, violent extremist cells that require enhanced monitoring and inter-agency coordination.”

Corbin Rubinson, a spokesperson for the Dallas Police Department, which houses the fusion center, declined to comment on the report.

“These assessments are developed to support information sharing and situational awareness among our public safety partners, and we do not discuss their contents or how they are developed,” Rubinson said.

The Dallas document went on to name two groups that have no apparent connection to the Turtle Island Liberation Front: Direct Action Movement for Palestine Liberation and Unity of Fields. The only connection to the Turtle Island Liberation Front was that each group could be described as, in the words of the report, “another far-left, pro-Palestine, anti-Zionist extremist group.”

The bulletin acknowledged that none of the groups it singled out had a known presence in Dallas. Still, it urged police in the Dallas–Fort Worth area to “Monitor social media pages for extremist groups using ghost accounts and/or VPN” and to “Expand monitoring of encrypted messaging platforms for extremist activity.”

Anarchists in Minneapolis

The Miami and Dallas reports cribbed extensively from Trump’s executive order and Justice Department court filings, respectively. In January of this year, the FBI put out an alert more explicitly directed at local police.

Four days after federal officers shot and killed nurse Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, the FBI issued a “public safety awareness report” produced by its Office of Partner Engagement and Counterterrorism Division. The report, which was first made public last week by the news outlet Prism, was independently obtained by The Intercept.

The January 30 report was titled “Anarchist Violent Extremists Pose Persistent Public Safety Threat.” It ticked off recent instances of what the FBI saw as instances of anarchist violent extremism, or AVE, including the Prairieland ICE detention facility protest near Dallas and the Turtle Island Liberation Front. Then it swiveled to Minneapolis, which for weeks had been the scene of ordinary protesters confronting masked federal agents.

“Given recent criminal activity in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the FBI is concerned about the potential for AVE violence there,” the report said. “The FBI has seen indicators of this, to include an individual who self-identified as Antifa advocating on social media for violence against ICE in Minneapolis, telling people to ‘get your guns.’ The FBI investigates any reports of violence or the threat of violence by AVEs or other domestic violent extremist or criminal actors.”

The reference about a “self-identified” antifa member appears to be to Kyle Wagner, a Minneapolis man whose online videos featured prominently in the recent indictment of 15 anti-ICE protesters there.

The entire FBI report has a more professional tone than the Florida fusion center bulletin, McQuade said, but it rests on equally thin evidence.

“The FBI talks about two criminal cases, some social media monitoring, but they have claims that would not pass peer review — that anti-capitalist graffiti is an indicator of threat,” he said. “Then the little pull box they had in there about Minneapolis, where one tweet or social media post is interpreted to mean the whole city is ready for violence against federal agents. That just seems like bad analysis.”

Dissent as a Threat

It is not the first time that counterterrorism agencies have mobilized against the left on thin evidence.

Months before Trump supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, The Intercept obtained hundreds of hacked law enforcement materials showing agencies obsessing over the threat from the left while ignoring the burgeoning right-wing, anti-government boogaloo movement. Adherents of the movement played a role in the assault on the Capitol.

In 2024, the American Civil Liberties Union filed a public records lawsuit against the Justice Department seeking internal documents about how Joint Terrorism Task Forces and fusion centers responded to protests.

Skeptics of domestic counterterrorism agencies say the overreach has spanned both Democratic and Republican White House administrations, but the documents the ACLU obtained from the first Trump administration share remarkable similarities with his second term.

The January 2026 bulletin from the FBI obtained by The Intercept includes a warning about “black bloc” clothing used to obscure demonstrators’ identities, securing financing through “lawful donations,” encrypted messaging apps, and anti-government graffiti.

The ACLU, meanwhile, obtained a July 2018, bulletin produced by the Department of Homeland Security and local fusion centers that warned about “potential indicators of violent activity by anarchist extremists at events and protests in the homeland.”

The “indicators” of a heightened threat in the bulletin include wearing black and red clothing, soliciting legal defense donations ahead of protests, wearing “Guy Fawkes” masks, and “use of public transportation” to mask license plate information.

The “indicators” of a heightened threat include wearing black and red clothing, wearing “Guy Fawkes” masks, and “use of public transportation.”

“Merely wearing certain colors and taking the bus to a protest should not be enough to justify heightened scrutiny from law enforcement,” Sara Robinson, an attorney with the ACLU’s National Security Project, said in an emailed statement. “Using overly broad and stigmatizing terms to describe people who may be engaged in First Amendment-protected activity opens the door to pretextual law enforcement investigations and aggressive policing based not on evidence of criminal activity, but on the exercise of free speech rights.”

She said, “The Trump administration is continuing to treat dissent as a threat.”

Organized crime resurgence fears stalking wartime Russia

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Organized crime resurgence fears stalking wartime Russia

Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Russia endured a period of violent criminal lawlessness known as the “wild 90s.” Organized crime spiked, with gangs taking control of banks, factories and other lucrative markets. Contract killings, shootings and car bombings became part of urban life.

There are now fears that the Ukraine war will give rise to a similar situation as members of Russia’s army, as well as former convicts who were pardoned in exchange for military service, return from the frontlines.

A variety of conditions enabled organized crime to flourish in the 1990s. Weak state institutions, economic turmoil and mass privatization following the Soviet Union’s collapse created a governance vacuum in Russia.

As criminologist Federico Varese, of the University of Oxford, explains in his work, criminal groups stepped in to provide “private protection” in areas where the state was ineffective or absent. They provided services such as contract enforcement, debt recovery and physical business security.

Sociologist Vadim Volkov, meanwhile, describes the rise of “violent entrepreneurs” who commodified coercion in an environment where legal institutions had largely collapsed. Russia’s murder rate surged in this period. Between 1990 and 1994, it more than doubled to a peak of over 33 killings per 100,000 people.

This made Russia’s murder rate among the highest globally.

Russian Soldiers talking as they prepare for combat.
Russian soldiers preparing for military action in Ukraine. Photo: Dmitriy Kandinskiy / Shutterstock via The Conversation

Contemporary Russia presents a different picture. Following Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in 1999, the Russian state has consolidated its authority. Putin quickly expanded the state’s security apparatus while reasserting control over criminal networks.

In many cases, organized crime has become integrated into systems of governance, complementing the state’s political or strategic interests. For example, criminal networks have facilitated sanctions evasion by transporting restricted goods through parallel trade routes and acquiring sanctioned technologies via intermediary networks in third countries.

Reinforcing this transformation

The Ukraine war is likely to reinforce this more recent transformation. Expanded Western sanctions imposed since the start of the war have widened opportunities for illicit trade and smuggling networks. But the most significant consequences arise from the social and security challenges associated with large-scale military demobilization.

Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands of military personnel. This includes up to 180,000 former convicts. Many of these people have experienced prolonged exposure to combat. Military service does not inherently lead to criminality and it would be inaccurate to suggest that all returning veterans are likely to become offenders.

However, evidence from post-conflict societies such as Colombia, Sierra Leone, Cambodia and Bosnia-Herzegovina suggests that poorly managed demobilization can reshape criminal markets.

Research on disarmament, demobilization and reintegration consistently demonstrates that unemployment, psychological trauma and weak institutional support create opportunities for criminal groups to recruit former combatants.

Military service also teaches soldiers organizational skills beyond battlefield experience such as logistics, intelligence gathering and network management. These skills are all transferable to contemporary organized crime. In modern organized crime environments, traditional racketeering is complemented by cybercrime, cryptocurrency laundering and transnational financial crime.

Even if only a small proportion of military personnel returning from Ukraine become involved in criminal activity, they could change the composition and improve the operational sophistication of Russian crime groups. While the circumstances differ, the case of Colombia illustrates how poorly managed demobilisation can transform organised crime.

In the 2000s, over 30,000 fighters from right-wing paramilitary groups in Colombia were demobilized. A minority of these former combatants subsequently joined or established criminal organizations. They provided military training, discipline and networks, aiding the capabilities of organized crime.

These groups rapidly became major players in the Colombian organised crime ecosystem. A Human Rights Watch report found they became major perpetrators of drug trafficking, extortion and violence. Estimates suggest they controlled up to half of the Colombia’s cocaine exports by 2011.

The Kremlin building in Moscow, where government decisions are made.
The Russian state is far stronger than the one that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Photo: WorldStockStudio / Shutterstock via The Conversation

The Russian state is far stronger than the one that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This makes a wholesale resurgence of traditional criminal violence unlikely. Instead, the Ukraine war looks set to accelerate a new generation of criminal networks that are more professional, militarised and embedded within state structures.

However, the Kremlin still faces a difficult balancing act. Contemporary Russian governance has relied upon managing and exploiting criminal groups. And Moscow appears wary of the broad social instability that would emerge if criminal organizations become sufficiently powerful or autonomous to operate beyond state control.

Russia has thus begun preparing plans for the return of veterans from Ukraine. The Kremlin has implemented initiatives such as the “Time of Heroes” program. This program channels selected veterans into public administration and political office following their demobilization. Although limited, such planning reflects official recognition that domestic consequences of war will extend beyond the battlefield.

Regardless of these efforts, the distinction between organized crime and state power in Russia is likely to become harder to draw than at any point since the end of the Cold War.

Adriana Marin is lecturer in international relations, Coventry University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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