TEL AVIV — There is one country on earth where Donald Trump could plausibly win a national election, and he knows it.

“I could run for Prime Minister,” he joked in May, claiming 99% approval here. No poll has ever shown that. But the joke landed because it is only half a joke.

Thirteen days before Israelis vote on October 27, Trump is the most popular politician in this campaign. He is also the only one not on the ballot.

And the man who has spent a decade wrapping himself in Trump’s embrace, Benjamin Netanyahu, is discovering that the embrace has gone noticeably loose.

A year of hero worship

The romance peaked a year ago this week. On October 13, 2025, the last 20 living hostages came home under a Gaza deal Trump’s team brokered, and Trump addressed the Knesset the same day. Israeli TV ran his speech side by side with the reunions. For many viewers here, the two images fused.

The honors followed. Netanyahu called him Israel’s “greatest friend ever” and broke with tradition to announce the Israel Prize, normally reserved for citizens, for a foreign head of state. Then came 2026: a joint war on Iran launched in February, a ceasefire in April, and a Hamas disarmament agreement Trump announced in July.

The numbers are real, if not 99%. In mid-2025 Pew found 69% of Israelis had confidence in him. In February 2026, the Jewish People Policy Institute found 73% rated him better than an average US president. Researchers at Tel Aviv University describe a “Trump effect”: Jewish Israelis, especially on the right, become more open to talks with Palestinians when told Trump is behind them. No Israeli politician can do that. Trump can.

The endorsement that isn’t coming

In 2019, Likud hung giant billboards over the Ayalon highway: Netanyahu and Trump shaking hands, under the slogan “In another league.” Trump reposted it. That was the deal: Bibi borrowed Trump’s glow, and Trump enjoyed the tribute.

This time the president is keeping his hands in his pockets. In June he said he would “most likely” back Netanyahu, depending on the opponent. Then Gadi Eisenkot entered the race, and Trump said he didn’t hear bad things about him. In a TIME interview he dodged the question three times. On Tuesday, boarding Marine One, he offered only: “We may endorse somebody.” No name.

The closest he has come is a Truth Social link, in September, to a Newsmax story about one poll showing Netanyahu’s bloc ahead. It is not even clear Trump posted it himself. Meanwhile Israeli media report that Eisenkot’s and Naftali Bennett’s camps have quietly asked Trump’s circle to stay neutral. So far, they are getting their wish.

The race is tight enough for that silence to matter. Across five polls last month, Eisenkot’s Yashar averaged 22.2 seats to Likud’s 21.2. Netanyahu’s bloc averaged 54.4, the Zionist opposition 51. Neither reaches 61.

Cracks in the shrine

The distance runs both ways. Over the summer, Trump pressed Israel to curb its operations in Lebanon and pull back from parts of Syria while Washington negotiated with Tehran. He admitted calling Netanyahu “crazy,” with an expletive, in a heated phone call. Axios reported he has told people that “Bibi is his own worst enemy.”

Israelis noticed. An Israel Democracy Institute poll this summer found the share who believe Trump prioritizes Israel’s security fell from 44% in May to 28% in June. Among Jewish respondents, belief that Israel can fully rely on him dropped 38 points between March and June. Only about a third felt Israel’s strategic position was better than before the Iran war.

Yet Trump’s personal popularity has proven sticky, which is the strange part. Israelis can doubt his policy and still love the man. Netanyahu’s own campaign shows the reflex: When a businessman he placed on Likud’s list turned out to have called Trump “morally corrupt,” the candidate apologized within hours, calling Trump Israel’s greatest friend in the White House. In Israel, insulting Trump is still a campaign hazard.

Whose country, then?

“Trump’s country” doesn’t mean Israel belongs to Trump. It means Trump has become a reference point every Israeli politician must orbit. Netanyahu runs on being his friend. Eisenkot runs on not being his enemy. The whole field argues over who can manage him best.

That is a remarkable dependency for a proud, fractious democracy, and it cuts in odd directions. Trump got Netanyahu to accept a 20-point Gaza plan no Israeli coalition would have drafted. He also wrote to President Herzog demanding a pardon in Netanyahu’s criminal trial, an intervention that would cause uproar if it came from any other foreign leader.

On October 27, Israelis will choose their own prime minister. But many will be asking themselves the same quiet question: Whom will Washington call first? Welcome to Israel, where the most influential voice in the election cannot vote — and, for now, isn’t saying a word.

Leon Hadar is a journalist, blogger, analyst, author and consultant. Read his Global Zeitgeist Substack here and become a subscriber here.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR