In the part of the world that includes Iran, if you have to explain that you won you have in fact lost.
President Trump’s announcement that he is pausing, after a day, Project Freedom, which had the US Navy escorting cargo ships through the Straits of Hormuz, is puzzling. As are his statements that a deal with the Iranian regime to end the war is within reach.
Keep in mind that focusing too closely on Trump’s zigs-and-zags can be disorienting. Only he knows what he intends to do and how he will get there. And he has access to all the intelligence. We in the commentariat do not.
One hopes the president has a plan for finishing business in Iran in a way that leaves no room for doubt – and that needs no explanation.
However, I’ve got the same feeling as in 1991 when President George HW Bush was ending the first Iraq War 72 hours too soon – and giving Saddam Hussein a new lease on life.
And it was the same feeling in 2001 when President George W. Bush let Osama bin Laden out of Tora Bora instead of killing him.
And there was the time in the mid-1990s when the US government had a chance to finish North Korea’s Kim Family regime along with its quest for nuclear weapons. But President Clinton declined to do so – with an assist from Jimmy Carter, a former president who declared Kim Il Sung “a good man we can do business with.”
And more recently and more Trump-related, recall the time during the first Trump administration when Chinese telecom (AKA spy) companies Huawei and ZTE were on the ropes (actually, they were on the mat) and Trump let them up.
And Tik Tok – the 24/7 Chinese intelligence collection and influence app? The Trump team declined to close it down in the US.
American leaders seem to have forgotten how to defeat our adversaries – rather than just changing the definition of winning.
As for letting Pakistan mediate a deal with the Iranians? The Pakistanis have long been in China’s pocket. They take orders from Beijing.
This resembles team Biden having the Russians mediate between the United States and Iran.
It’s good to have at least some vague idea of who your friends and enemies are.
The Pakistanis are not our friends, as evidenced by their double-dealing during our entire campaign in Afghanistan – and hosting bin Laden himself for a decade after his escape from Afghanistan.
Islamabad has also been conducting a terrorist campaign against India for years that would give Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Quds Force a run for its money.
Are these really the people to trust to negotiate a deal with Iran?
The president, as noted, sees the intelligence. Perhaps there are good reasons for halting Project Freedom.
Maybe we are out of interceptor missiles and we fear Iran launching missiles at the Gulf nations’ (GCC’s) desalination plants?
Maybe the UAE intervened and asked that Trump hold back due to the attacks on their oil installations?
As is the case with all commentators, we don’t know the US military’s inventory situation or the latest intelligence on the Iranians.
But one can’t understand Secretary of War Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Cain talking yesterday about a Red, White and Blue Dome over the Strait of Hormuz – and then, less than 12 hours later, pulling it off the table.
Maybe the President thinks he’s found “moderate” Iranians with whom he can cut a good deal.
Doesn’t nearly a half century of dealing with Iran teach any lessons?
The only moderate Iranians live in Los Angeles. The regime in Tehran is the same one that just murdered 40,000 of its own people.
Windows only stay open for a while and this one might be shutting. Indeed, we might be shutting it.
Even if a deal is reached, it’s likely that the regime will eventually break any promises it makes. It will rebuild and rearm and keep driving for nuclear weapons. It will resuscitate its regional proxies. And it will eliminate all domestic opposition – the same people Trump offered assurances that “help is on the way.”
As for the ripple effects? Xi Jinping had been backfooted by the impressive US military performance – and repeated demonstrations of national will – in Venezuela and the Iran war to date. Now, however, Xi will no longer have much fear of the United States.
He will know he just needs to dig in, maybe absorb some discomfort and wait out the Americans.
And America’s friends who expected Washington to see things through to the end, and take on the local bully, will be more than a little worried.
We should know soon enough if we’ve won or lost in Iran. And if the administration has to explain that it won, –well, you know the answer to that one.
Colonel Grant Newsham (US Marines – Ret.) is the author of When China Attacks: A Warning to America.
