cde.news desk · 2 min read
As Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, Europe is watching closely, yet trying hard not to look as if it is.
The European Commission has said publicly it will not comment on elections in the EU or abroad, and officials say the midterms barely feature in the bloc’s internal discussions. One senior diplomat gave three reasons: the result is hard to predict, nobody wants to raise hopes of change, and it is unclear how far even a Democratic wave would affect foreign policy.
The stakes are clear. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority and a 53–47 Senate edge, and polls favour Democrats to win back the House, while the Senate is expected to be much tighter. The campaign has been dominated by the cost of living, tariffs and immigration, but the outcome could shape US support for Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, NATO commitments and trade relations with the EU.
Yet officials at the EU and NATO told AFP they doubt even a heavy Republican defeat would rein in Trump on the world stage. A more vocal pro-Kyiv Congress is possible, but Brussels is not expecting American support for Ukraine to rise again, and is instead focused on plugging a €70 billion hole in Kyiv’s finances next year.
On trade, hopes are equally modest. Diplomats recall that it took months to get Joe Biden to roll back tariffs on EU steel after Trump’s first term, and even then restrictions remained. Analysts also warn Europe not to assume that congressional opposition to Trump means support for European economic priorities.
There is also a lingering fear that things could get worse. A Republican hold could embolden Trump, while a loss might push him to stir up trouble abroad, from the Iran war to a harder push on Ukraine. Meanwhile, allies are anxiously awaiting a Pentagon review of US forces in Europe, due in December, which is widely expected to bring a scaling back of deployments.
The mood in Brussels is summed up by one European diplomat: “Whatever the outcome, we’ll keep going.” The message from analysts is the same: Europe should not treat the midterms as a return to the old transatlantic relationship, and should strengthen its own defence, strategic autonomy and partnerships with allies such as Canada.
