There are lots of reports of Ukrainian attacks on Russian shipping, but not so many about Russian attacks on Ukrainian ships.
Over the last few months the Russians have been waging their own campaign to try and destroy shipping in and out of Ukrainian ports, which is vital to ship out Ukrainian food for sale.
We have some data on this. From June 20-July 20 (a month) the Russians supposedly hit 28 merchant vessels around Odesa, killing 21 sailors. The largest of these was a corn-laden vessel flying under a Guinea-Bissau flag, in which 10 sailors died.
I have had reports from people who were recently in Odesa, and they are worried that the situation is not good.
On July 22 not a single merchant ship entered Ukrainian waters to load up with grain, and we are getting into peak season for agricultural production. That was notable enough that the Ukrainian Foreign Minister tweeted about it.
Since then, its not clear if any vessels have made it in to get grain.
Watch this story as part of the wider war on ports. Shipping in and out is vital to Russia and Ukraine, particularly in terms of income generation. Russia makes its money selling oil; Ukraine makes its money selling grain. Both commodities need to go out by sea.
Russia has suffered significant income losses through the campaign on its port/shipping (and refineries, of course). That has led to Russia having to import certain fuels, such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, that it used to be able to provide itself, which along with reduced outward flows is depriving Russia of a great deal of income.
If Ukraine’s partners in Europe are willing to back Ukraine, the Ukrainians should be able to deal with this disruption a little better than their enemies – though that does not at all mean it will be easy.
Russian shipping/port/refinery losses mean that if they cannot ship, not only will they lose money, they actually will not have enough fuel for the domestic economy. That will have spillover effects. The Ukrainians are just losing money (they will have enough to eat).
Overall it is a pretty intense conflict – and one that matters a great deal to the outcome of the war.
Phillips O’Brien is a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrew. This article, excerpted from Phillips’s Newsletter, is republished with permission.
