An in-depth analysis of the unprecedented decline in U.S. tourism and pathways to recovery
Something strange is happening in 2025. Nearly empty passenger planes are crossing the Atlantic. Their cabins echo with the footsteps of flight attendants. They serve just a handful of passengers. Shauna Massenill flew from London to Chicago and found herself practically alone. “There was nobody there, nobody in my row. It was really shocking. I’ve never been on a flight like that.”
The data confirms what those empty seats suggest. International travel to the US dropped 11.6% in March compared to the same month last year¹. Western Europe saw a 17% decline in visits for March 2025, the first decline since 2021². Of 184 countries worldwide, the U.S. is the only one experiencing an absolute decline in international visitor spending³.
For decades, America was the dream destination. Skyscrapers, movie stars, bucket-list vacations. But that dream is cracking. Global tourism is changing fast, and for the first time in a generation, the US isn’t winning.
The Scale of the Crisis
Financial Impact: Billions Lost
International travel spending in the United States is expected to decline about 7%, or $12.5 billion, in 2025⁴. This isn’t just another dip—it’s a fundamental shift that threatens the foundation of America’s $1.9 trillion travel economy.
Julia Simpson, CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council, puts it bluntly: “Of 184 countries, the U.S. is the only one that’s seeing an absolute decline in international visitor spending. The U.S. is definitely losing its crown in this area.”⁵
The numbers paint a stark picture:
- Every 1% drop in international visitor spending equals $1.8 billion lost in export revenue annually⁶
- A projected loss of $21 billion in travel-related exports if current trends continue⁷
- Potential job losses exceeding 230,000 positions, primarily in dining and lodging⁸
Regional Breakdown: Who’s Staying Away
Canada: The Closest Neighbor Turns Away
Canadians, who accounted for 28% of all international visitors in 2024⁹, are leading the exodus:
- Land border crossings plunged 31.9% year-over-year in March¹⁰
- Air arrivals fell 13.5%¹¹
- Flight bookings dropped over 70% in March 2025 compared to the same period last year¹²
Mexico and Beyond
The decline extends across all major source markets:
- Air visitors from Mexico fell 23.0% in March¹³
- Western Europe down 17% for March 2025¹⁴
- Asia seeing second consecutive month of declines¹⁵
Dr. Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, notes: “Trump administration ‘posturing and policy’ are connected to border security issues.” These policies and tariffs on long-standing trade partners have created ‘sentiment-headwinds’ among would-be travelers.”¹⁶
The Root Causes: Why Trust Is Eroding
Border Security Concerns
I was questioned by one of the officers. Shortly after, my mother and I were taken into a room,” recounts an Australian traveler. “We were held there for quite some time before my mom was released. Unfortunately, I remained behind for further interrogation. That was about a 4 to 5 hour ordeal before I was taken to the federal detention center.”¹⁷
Such experiences aren’t isolated incidents. Documented cases in 2025 include:
- A traveler detained for 46 days at San Ysidro border crossing, including eight days in solitary confinement¹⁸
- A German traveler detained for 16 days despite holding a valid ESTA¹⁹
- A UK citizen detained for 19 days in Washington State²⁰
Official Travel Warnings from Allies
When close allies start warning their citizens about visiting America, something has fundamentally broken. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Denmark, and Finland have issued travel warnings. They advise their citizens to be cautious when planning to visit the United States²¹.
Germany’s foreign ministry stated that “even a valid visa no longer guarantees entry into the US”²². This is a remarkable statement from a close ally. It highlights how severely America’s reputation for predictable, fair treatment of visitors has deteriorated.
Policy Impact on Perception
Tourism professionals identify mandatory social media checks as a factor. Heightened border security measures also contribute. Together, they are key factors driving the decline²³. The “America First” policy stance has created what industry experts describe as a “less welcoming atmosphere for international visitors.”²⁴
Economic Ripple Effects Across America
Border Communities in Crisis
Barbara Barrett is the Executive Director of the Frontier Duty Free Association. She called the current situation a “full-blown crisis” for border duty-free shops²⁵. The impact is severe:
- Border duty-free stores experiencing 40-50% declines in business²⁶
- Retailers across Ontario and British Columbia reporting 40-50% slumps in cross-border sales²⁷
- Some border businesses now accepting Canadian dollars at parity with US dollars to lure back customers²⁸
Tourism Hubs Feel the Pain
Flagstaff, Arizona Trace Ward, director of Flagstaff’s Convention and Visitors Bureau, reports a 15-20% drop. This decline is in international tourists year over year. “I look forward to the excitement of the international traveler coming back full steam. Until then, we’re gonna sell to whoever is interested in coming here,” Ward said²⁹.
Las Vegas Major destination cities like Las Vegas are experiencing significant impacts. Hotels and casinos are already laying off concierge workers³⁰.
Aviation Industry Adaptation
Airlines are responding to shifting demand patterns. Air Canada has reduced routes to US cities and increased flights to Latin America and Europe³¹. Canadian airline WestJet reported customers shifting bookings “from the U.S. to other popular sunseeker destinations like Mexico and the Caribbean.”³²
Global Competition: Other Destinations Benefit
While America loses visitors, competitors celebrate. Some tourist boards are predicting double-digit growth in visitor numbers as a direct result of US cancellations³³. Rental properties and resorts in parts of Europe have reported more than 30% increases in summer bookings³⁴.
Travel agents note that business conferences once destined for US cities are being relocated. Leisure trips are also being moved to more politically neutral regions³⁵.
Expert Perspectives on Recovery
Industry Leaders Weigh In
Tourism economist Jenny Thorvaldson from IMPLAN explains the broader implications: “It’s not going to devastate the U.S. economy in terms of GDP, but it is very significant in terms of employment.”³⁶
The U.S. Travel Association emphasizes the value of international visitors: “International inbound travel is hugely important from an economic standpoint. People that come to the U.S. and visit spend on average $4,000 per visit.”³⁷
Academic Analysis
NC State Tourism Extension associate Ann Savage notes: “I think we’re just beginning to notice the effects of tariffs. These tariffs are affecting international travel. This is especially true for the number of Canadians visiting the U.S.”³⁸
Research from Tourism Economics concludes that international travelers, particularly Canadians, are turning away from the U.S. “in part because of ‘a growing wave of negative sentiment’ due to policies and pronouncements from the Trump administration.”³⁹
Pathways to Recovery: Learning from Success Stories
Government Recognition and Action
The Trump administration has shown awareness of the crisis. In response to concerns about upcoming major events, Trump created a task force for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The task force aims to “showcase the Nation’s pride and hospitality.” It also seeks to promote economic growth and tourism through sport.⁴⁰
Industry Adaptation Strategies
Local Innovation Communities like Flagstaff are already adapting by:
- Adding more direct flights to attract domestic travelers⁴¹
- Promoting new attractions like the Lowell Observatory’s Astronomy Discovery Center⁴²
- Focusing marketing efforts on domestic tourism markets⁴³
Border Business Recovery Efforts Some border businesses have implemented creative solutions:
- Accepting Canadian currency at par value⁴⁴
- Developing targeted incentive programs for international customers⁴⁵
- Collaborating with tourism boards on recovery initiatives⁴⁶
Policy Solutions: What Experts Recommend
Tourism industry stakeholders propose several key reforms:
Immediate Actions
- Streamlining visa processes to reduce current 2-year wait times⁴⁷
- Implementing clearer, more predictable border policies⁴⁸
- Providing cultural sensitivity training for border officials⁴⁹
Long-term Strategies
- Investing in tourism infrastructure improvements⁵⁰
- Enhancing diplomatic cooperation with foreign consulates⁵¹
- Developing comprehensive visitor experience standards⁵²
International Examples of Tourism Recovery
While America faces unique challenges, other destinations have successfully recovered from tourism crises through:
- Transparent communication about policy changes
- Investment in visitor experience improvements
- Diplomatic engagement to rebuild trust
- Coordinated marketing campaigns emphasizing safety and welcome
Reasons for Optimism: America’s Enduring Appeal
Cultural Magnetism Remains Strong
Despite current challenges, America’s fundamental attractions remain powerful. The world still admires American culture, music, and technology⁵³. National parks, iconic cities, and cultural institutions continue to captivate global imagination.
Economic Incentives for Change
The massive economic stakes—$12.5 billion in potential losses—create strong incentives for policy adjustments. Tourism supports millions of American jobs and contributes significantly to local economies nationwide.
Upcoming Opportunities
Major events present opportunities for recovery:
- 2026 FIFA World Cup (co-hosted with Mexico and Canada)⁵⁴
- 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles⁵⁵
- Continued strength in domestic tourism markets⁵⁶
Industry Resilience
The travel industry has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout history. Post-pandemic recovery, while incomplete, showed tourism’s ability to rebound when conditions improve.
The Road Ahead: Building a Welcoming America
Short-term Priorities
Immediate Crisis Management
- Address visa processing backlogs⁵⁷
- Implement consistent border procedures⁵⁸
- Improve communication with international partners⁵⁹
Stakeholder Engagement
- Collaborate with tourism boards in key source markets⁶⁰
- Work with airlines to maintain route connectivity⁶¹
- Support border communities through transition periods⁶²
Long-term Vision
Recovery requires recognizing that tourism isn’t just economics—it’s diplomacy, storytelling, and relationship-building. Every traveler carries a story and deserves dignity and fair treatment.
The path forward demands:
- Consistent policies that balance security with hospitality
- Recognition that soft power through tourism builds lasting relationships
- Understanding that America’s appeal lies in its promise of opportunity and welcome
Measuring Success
Recovery metrics should include:
- Restoration of trust among traditional ally countries
- Increased satisfaction scores from international visitors
- Sustainable growth in visitor numbers across all source markets
- Positive economic impact on border and tourism-dependent communities
Conclusion: Reclaiming the American Dream Destination
The empty passenger planes crossing the Atlantic aren’t just symptoms of policy disagreements. They symbolize America’s diminished place in the world’s imagination. But this crisis also presents an opportunity.
Tourism economist experts argue that international goodwill and accessibility must be fostered. This is essential for restoring the United States’ reputation as a top global destination.⁶³ The road ahead requires concerted efforts from both government and private sectors to reverse negative trends.
The question isn’t whether this trend can reverse—it’s whether America will choose to reverse it before the damage becomes permanent. Recovery demands more than policy changes. It requires a fundamental recommitment to the values that once made America the world’s most desired destination.
In 2025, that welcome is starting to fade. With decisive action, America can rebuild its position. Cultural sensitivity is also crucial in this effort. Recognizing that every visitor matters will help America remain the land where dreams come true. The choice is ours to make.
References
Primary Government and Official Data:
- Oxford Economics – “Inbound Travel to US in Steep Decline”
- U.S. Travel Association – “U.S. Travel Snapshot April 2025”
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection – “CBP releases March 2025 monthly update”
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics – “Border Crossing Data Annual Release: 2023-2024”
Major News Sources: 5. Reuters – “Foreign travel spending in US to decline 7% in 2025, report says”
- CNBC – “Fewer international tourists are visiting the U.S. — economic losses could be ‘staggering,’ researchers estimate”
- CBS News – “What a slowdown in international travel could mean for America’s tourist hubs”
- AP News – “US expected a big travel year, but overseas visitors — angered by Trump — are heading elsewhere”
- CNBC – “Canadians pull back on U.S. trips, threatening to widen United States’ $50 billion travel deficit”
Industry and Academic Sources: 10. NC State University – “As International Travel to the US Declines, Expert Breaks Down Impacts” – https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2025/05/international-travel-to-us-declines-expert-breaks-down-impacts/
- Travel And Tour World – “US Tourism Sector Plunges into Unprecedented Revenue Crisis in 2025”
- Travel And Tour World – “America Faces a Tourism Crisis in 2025 as Foreign Visitors Choose Safer, Easier Destinations”
- Travel And Tour World – “Why US Tourism Plunged in March 2025”
- Travel And Tour World – “US Border Cities Struggle as Canadian Tourism Collapses in 2025”
- Travel And Tour World – “US Tourism Takes a Sharp Swoop Downward From Canada, Germany, Brazil, Mexico, Italy, Australia”
- Travel And Tour World – “US And Canada Experience Sharp Decline In Saskatchewan Border Crossings”
Government Travel Advisory: 17. Government of Canada – “Travel advice and advisories for United States (USA)” – https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/united-states
Border Security Data: 18. USAFacts – “How many illegal crossings are attempted at the US-Mexico border each month?” – https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-migrant-encounters-are-there-along-the-us-mexico-border/country/united-states/
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection – “Nationwide Encounters”
Industry Publication: 20. TravelPulse – “The Facts and Figures Behind a US Tourism Decline” – https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/international-travel-to-united-states-continues-decline