The German general election on 23 February is drawing near. Everyone is pondering a crucial question—not just in Germany but across the EU, the UK, and the USA. Who will govern Germany? And if, as expected, a coalition government emerges, will it hold together?
The stakes are high, and the political landscape is complex. The1 Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leads the polls. Its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is also leading. They are comfortably ahead of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which is polling at 16%. The Greens are polling at 13%. However, in second place, with just over 20% of the vote, is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). This party is supported by figures like Elon Musk and JD Vance. Despite their growing popularity, all other German political parties have vowed not to work with the AfD. Whether this stance holds remains to be seen.
AfD’s Tactics: Courting the Workers’ Vote
The AfD is making strategic moves to expand its influence, particularly among unionized workers. The party has set up a front organization aimed at winning seats on Germany’s statutory works councils (Betriebsrat). These councils, which represent the interests of employees within companies, are a cornerstone of Germany’s labor relations system. By gaining a foothold in these councils, the AfD aims to weaken the power of established unions. Notable unions include IG Metall, the engineering and metals union, and ver.di, the commerce union. These unions represent workers across various industries.
However, the AfD’s track record in labor disputes raises questions about its true intentions. The party has consistently sided with employers. It has not favored workers. This stance could alienate the very voters it is trying to attract. This contradiction highlights the AfD’s broader challenge. It must balance its populist rhetoric with policies. These policies often favor corporate interests over labor rights.
Coalition-Building: What Are the Options?
The AfD is largely isolated by other parties. The focus turns to the potential for coalition-building among the mainstream political forces. The CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, has several options, each with its own challenges:
- A Three-Way Coalition with the SPD, Greens, or FDP
The CDU could form a three-way coalition with the SPD. Alternatively, it could partner with the Greens or the Free Democratic Party (FDP). However, such an arrangement could lead to intense infighting. These parties have divergent priorities on issues like climate policy. There are also differences in taxation and social welfare priorities. - A Grand Coalition with the SPD
Another possibility is a return to the “grand coalition” model. It would consist of the CDU and the SPD. This arrangement has been used four times in Germany’s recent history. Three of these instances were under Angela Merkel. It would be a bitter pill for the SPD to swallow. The party has struggled to distinguish itself as a viable alternative to the CDU. Another grand coalition could further erode its credibility among voters. - A CDU-Led Coalition with Smaller Parties
The CDU could also explore partnerships with smaller parties. However, this approach would require careful negotiation. Achieving a stable majority is essential.
The Broader Implications
The outcome of the German election will have far-reaching consequences. This impact extends not just to Germany but also to the entire European Union and its allies. A stable government in Berlin is crucial for addressing pressing issues like the energy crisis and economic recovery. It is also essential for tackling geopolitical challenges, particularly in relation to Russia and China.
As the election draws closer, all eyes will be on Germany to see how its political landscape evolves. Will the CDU maintain its dominance, or will the SPD and Greens manage to close the gap? And perhaps most importantly, will the AfD’s growing influence force other parties to reconsider their refusal to collaborate with them?
The German election on 23 February will be a pivotal moment for the country. It will also be significant for Europe as a whole. Stay tuned.