As Germany heads to the polls this Sunday, migration has emerged as a defining issue in the election campaign. With around 60 million eligible voters, a significant majority are calling for stricter policies to curb irregular migration. This demand follows a series of high-profile attacks by individuals with a migration background. Some of these individuals should have already been deported. These incidents have reshaped the political landscape, pushing migration to the forefront of the national conversation.
The Migration Debate: A Nation Divided
For many Germans, migration is a deeply personal issue. “It’s very important to me because I’m directly affected. I have a migration background. I can see that this issue is deeply important to people,” says one voter. Another adds, “Migration is very important to me. I believe that those who have integrated here, work, earn money, and contribute positively to our economy should stay. But everyone without a resident permit should leave immediately.”
This sentiment is echoed across the country. Many voters are expressing frustration over what they see as a lack of effective migration policies. However, the debate is not without its complexities. Some advocate for stricter controls. Others emphasize the need for a balanced approach. This approach recognizes the contributions of migrants to Germany’s economy and society.
Political Parties Respond to Voter Sentiment
In response to the growing demand for action, Germany’s political parties have made migration a cornerstone of their campaigns. The center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the environmentalist Greens have proposed more restrictive policies. They aim to end benefits for asylum seekers who enter Germany via another EU country. They also suggest negotiating repatriation deals with non-EU countries to accelerate deportations. Additionally, they want to extend temporary border checks.
However, these measures fall short for other parties. The business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) proposes cutting payments for all rejected asylum seekers without exception. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) advocates for permanent border controls. They also support the rejection of asylum seekers arriving from EU neighbors. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) goes even further. It controversially labels its plans a “remigration agenda.” This term is associated with right-wing extremists who advocate for mass deportations. This includes deportations of those holding German citizenship.
There are some policy overlaps between the conservatives and the far-right. However, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has ruled out any coalition with the AfD. “We will not work together with the party that calls itself Alternative for Germany. We haven’t before, we won’t in the future, not ever,” Merz stated. However, forming a government will require compromise. Merz may need to partner with the Greens or the Social Democrats. He may even need to partner with both to find common ground on migration. This is a decisive issue for many voters.
A Shift to the Right?
Germany’s migration policies are likely to shift to the right after the election. Lukas Rudolph, an assistant professor of political behavior at the University of Konstanz, provides this insight. “You can expect to see a relevant shift towards the right,” he says. “This particularly concerns law and order policies. It also involves deportation. It questions the extent to which Germany will restrict migration on its own or seek a European solution.”
Rudolph notes that migration is a top concern for many voters. However, it is not the only issue driving their decisions. “If you ask citizens what’s important for their election decision, migration isn’t on top. It’s only something like fourth. Top is peace, security, economy, and justice in society,” he explains.
The European Dimension
Germany’s migration policies have significant implications for the European Union. If Germany moves towards stricter border controls, it could trigger a domino effect, potentially endangering the joint European asylum system. “If Germany establishes strict border controls, there will be a domino effect. I think it could endanger a joint European system,” warns Rudolph.
The Legacy of Angela Merkel’s Open-Door Policy
Former Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to enter Germany. It has been a decade since this decision. This decision was initially seen as a humanitarian gesture. However, it has since become a lightning rod for criticism. This criticism comes particularly from the populist right. However, experts argue that the current focus on migration is not solely a result of Merkel’s policies. It is also fueled by broader economic and social anxieties.
“Migration is an issue. It is fed by the populist right. This is based on sentiments of economic decline, multiple crises, and a sense of insecurity,” says Rudolph. “Of course, everyone agrees that something has to be done, but you have to take these broader issues into account.”
Looking Ahead: A Coalition Government and Compromise
The election is likely to result in a coalition government. The future of Germany’s migration policies will depend on the ability of the parties to find common ground. “A coalition government involves compromise,” says Manes Weisskircher of the Institute of Political Science at Dresden University of Technology. “What’s clear is that the far-right will stay out of government. The CDU will likely lead a government that includes either the Social Democrats or the Greens, or both.”
Weisskircher expects a continuation of the long-term EU plan to regulate external borders. However, he warns that intensified border controls could trigger political conflict. The return of immigrants to other EU countries may also contribute to this conflict within the European Union.
Successes and Challenges of Integration
Despite the heated debate, it’s important to recognize the successes of Germany’s integration efforts. “For some immigrant populations, labor market integration has been successful,” says Weisskircher. “About 30% of the German population has an immigration background. The public is well aware that immigration is a reality of life.”
However, he emphasizes the need for continued investment in housing, education, and public infrastructure to ensure social cohesion. “If governments don’t invest in these areas, it risks social cohesion—with or without immigration.”
Conclusion: A Nation at a Crossroads
As Germany heads to the polls, the country finds itself at a crossroads. The election is not just a referendum on migration. It also reflects broader anxieties about security, economic stability, and the future of the European project. Whatever the outcome, one thing is clear: the next government will face a daunting task. They must balance the demands of voters with the realities of a rapidly changing world. The stakes are high, and the decisions made in the coming months will shape Germany’s future for years to come.