For the fourth time in a little more than a year, the US Space Force needs to send up a new satellite to replenish the military’s GPS navigation network. And once again, the company the Pentagon is paying to launch it can’t answer the call.
United Launch Alliance, a 50-50 joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, was supposed to launch the final satellite for the Space Force’s GPS Block III program this month. Space Systems Command, responsible for buying spacecraft and rockets for the military, announced Friday it has transferred the launch to a Falcon 9 rocket from SpaceX, ULA’s chief rival in the market for launching US government satellites.
This is only the latest example of the Space Force moving a GPS launch from ULA to SpaceX. The three most recent GPS satellites were also supposed to launch on ULA’s Vulcan rocket. Beginning in 2024, the Space Force shifted them over to SpaceX. In exchange, military officials moved three future launches from SpaceX to ULA, including the launch of the GPS III SV10 satellite.
ULA’s Vulcan rocket is now grounded for the second time in less than two years, prompting the Space Force to move GPS III SV10 back to SpaceX. ULA will receive rights to launch a classified US military mission in 2028.
Space Systems Command assigned launch missions for the final four GPS satellites several years ago. At the time, the Vulcan rocket was nearing its first test flight. The debut was delayed from 2020 until early 2024, and since then, the new rocket’s path to operational service has not been smooth. On its second and fourth flights—in October 2024 and last month—the new rocket suffered problems with its solid rocket boosters.
An investigation into the first incident found a manufacturing defect was responsible for the loss of the booster’s exhaust nozzle shortly after liftoff. Officials have not announced the results of the probe into the second booster failure, but it appeared to be similar to the first incident. On each flight, the Vulcan rocket recovered from the anomaly and successfully completed its climb into orbit.
Assured access to space
The recurrence of the same type of failure twice in four flights gave US military officials pause. Last month, the military officer in charge of the Space Force’s space launch program said the investigation into the booster problem will take “many months.” The Space Force won’t resume launching payloads on the Vulcan rocket until the investigation is complete.
Those statements suggested the Space Force was likely to transfer the GPS slated to fly on the next Vulcan rocket to a different launch vehicle. That’s exactly what happened. On Friday, Space Systems Command confirmed that GPS III SV10 will now launch on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket in late April. Read our earlier story on why the Space Force is so eager to launch GPS satellites.
Each GPS III satellite weighs more than four tons at launch. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets and ULA’s Vulcan are the only launchers certified by the Space Force to launch these types of missions. With an inventory of reusable boosters flying several times per week, SpaceX can fit new missions in on relatively short notice.
“With this change, we are answering the call for rapid delivery of advanced GPS capability while the Vulcan anomaly investigation continues,” said Col. Ryan Hiserote, director of the National Security Space Launch program. “We are once again demonstrating our team’s flexibility and are fully committed to leverage all options available for responsive and reliable launch for the nation.”
Fall from grace
This is not a good look for United Launch Alliance, once the US military’s sole launch provider. SpaceX began launching US national security missions in 2018 after winning the right to compete for military launch contracts with its Falcon 9 rocket. The company entered the military launch market after filing a lawsuit against the Air Force in 2014 protesting the Pentagon’s decision to award ULA a multibillion-dollar sole-source contract.
The military opened a series of launch contracts to the competition, and in 2020, it selected ULA for 60 percent and SpaceX for 40 percent of its missions up for awards through the end of 2023. Last year, Space Systems Command announced the winners of a follow-on competition covering launches through the end of the decade. This time, SpaceX won the majority of the contracts, with ULA relegated to second position. The Space Force added Blue Origin as a third launch provider.
The Pentagon has maintained a policy of assured access to space since the 1990s, when the military lost several expensive, high-priority payloads in launch failures. ULA was the only provider for these launches for more than a decade, with Atlas V and Delta IV rockets providing overlap in capability to deliver most, but not all, national security payloads to orbit. The Delta IV is now out of service, and the Atlas V is nearing retirement.
Today, SpaceX alone comes closest to providing assured access to space, despite ULA’s backlog of more than $8 billion in military launch contracts.
