Once known for its excess rainfall, Lithuania is increasingly becoming a land of water shortages, raising concerns of potentially dangerous or even extreme droughts this summer, according to meteorologist Gytis Valaika.
Speaking to LRT.lt, Valaika said dry conditions have persisted since July 2023, with little relief in sight.
“Essentially, every month has been dry, and deeper layers of soil have remained arid since last year,” he said. “Even major lakes like Dusia – the third-largest in Lithuania – have significantly receded. People are photographing their wells and telling me there’s hardly any water. Nature experts report that puddles which typically dry out only by late summer are already gone.”
Though droughts are usually associated with summer, Valaika noted that Lithuania experienced unusual dryness even during the past winter.
“It’s not something you notice immediately because it’s cold, and the surface might be muddy. But the deeper layers remained dry,” he explained. “Foreign researchers have even noted that an atypical winter drought occurred in the Baltic region – something very uncommon for our climate.”
According to maps from the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service, parts of the country – particularly around Šakiai and areas near Kaunas – are already experiencing dangerous drought levels. And while recent cooler temperatures have slowed the drought’s progression, warmer weather could rapidly worsen the situation.
“As summer approaches and temperatures rise, evaporation increases. If we continue to see little rainfall – which is likely – the drought could quickly escalate into an extreme or even catastrophic drought,” he warned.
Valaika emphasised a shift in Lithuania’s climate patterns. “We’ve always been a country with excess moisture. Now, we’re increasingly facing moisture deficits.”
Rising threat of extreme weather
Lithuania is not just getting drier – it’s also getting stormier. Valaika said the general trend is clear: the atmosphere is warming, allowing it to hold more water vapour – a key ingredient for severe storms.
“Whether it’s hail, squalls, or tornadoes, all these dangerous phenomena are fuelled by high levels of atmospheric moisture. When it’s hot, we must be prepared for extreme events,” he said.
Though brief but intense downpours still occur, they tend to be highly localised. “You’ll have one town or district in Vilnius flooding while nearby areas remain parched. These contrasts are becoming typical.”
The risk of violent weather appears to be growing. “Every summer lately has brought surprises somewhere in Lithuania,” Valaika noted. “Last year we even saw a tornado resembling the type more common in the US – very intense and not something we’re used to. But looking at trends, these events might become normal here. In neighbouring Poland, they already are.”
Heat waves now an annual event
Lithuanians should also expect yearly heat waves – defined as three or more consecutive days of temperatures above 30°C.
“The number of hot days is rising, and we’re also seeing more tropical nights – when temperatures don’t fall below 20°C,” Valaika said. “Thirty years ago, these nights were unheard of in Lithuania. Now, we experience them annually. It’s getting harder to sleep, to cool homes, and to live without fans or air conditioning.”
He added that current temperatures are dramatically different from those of the mid-20th century. “If you look at the data from 50 or 60 years ago, summers were much cooler. +20 to +23°C was the norm, and +25 was something to celebrate. +30°C was extremely rare – maybe every two or three years.”
Is climate change to blame?
While Valaika stopped short of definitively attributing each extreme weather event to climate change, he acknowledged a likely link. “You can’t say it outright without a specific study, but if something unusual becomes more common, it’s probably at least partly due to climate change.”
Warming temperatures mean more moisture evaporates from the ground. Combined with low rainfall, this creates a “double effect” that intensifies drought conditions. “We had a very warm winter and spring, with only recent cooling. That prolonged warmth has led to more evaporation, increasing dryness overall.”
Don’t rely on long-term weather forecasts
With summer approaching, many Lithuanians are turning to online long-term weather forecasts. Valaika advises caution. “There are different types of models – long-range weather models and climate models. The latter project trends decades into the future based on socioeconomic factors, not just meteorology,” he said.
“I’ll be blunt – some of these forecasts are just empty speculation. They guess population growth, economic development, and build climate assumptions on that. Some may be accurate, but many are not.”
Valaika is especially sceptical of seasonal forecasts that try to predict weather up to six months ahead. “I’ve written a thesis on this – their accuracy is low. It’s more guesswork than science,” he said. “You might get a sense of trends a week or two out, but beyond that, I wouldn’t trust it.”
Lithuania’s geography – far from large oceans that stabilise climate patterns – also makes long-term forecasting difficult. “It’s easier to predict weather over the US, with the Pacific and Atlantic on either side. We’re less predictable. The best guidance for us is to look at past trends.”
Via LRT