It’s too soon to tell, as the fight with Iran started less than a week ago. But at least in the near-term, China will likely hold its fire on Taiwan.
However, if the Iran conflict continues for an extended period, lasting months rather than weeks, while casualties mount and the US appears bogged down, Chinese President Xi Jinping might be tempted to finally make good on his threat to move against Taiwan, a “reunification” he recently characterized as “unstoppable.”
China might assess that its military overmatch around Taiwan is such that the US can’t amass enough force to forestall or respond to a Chinese assault without suffering heavy losses.
And if the Americans don’t take the lead, no other regional nation will, not even nearby Japan. Despite impressive niche capabilities, the Japan Self Defense Force can’t fight a major war on its own.
Iran as another ‘Ukraine’
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last year that China was glad to have America involved in Ukraine. That’s because it burns through US armament stocks and is a political distraction – leaving the US (and Europeans) unable to focus on Asia and Taiwan.
The Iran conflict compounds the distraction and resource drain. Whatever the US does in Iran or provides to Ukraine is not available for a fight in the Western Pacific, and the US military may eventually need to draw on stocks allocated for an Asia-Pacific contingency.
A too-small US Navy, finite war stocks and an atrophied defense industrial base are converging for the US, just as the world gets more dangerous. The US military’s perfumed princes and civilian leaders ignored many warnings over the last three decades.
But maybe US allies can make up the difference? Unlikely. Japan is remilitarizing, but has a long way to go. South Korea is a huge arms producer but focuses on North Korea, and it’s questionable what Seoul would do in the event of a Taiwan conflict.
Leftist President Lee Jae-myung and his administration are reluctant to anger China. And President Lee himself said, while a candidate, that what China did to Taiwan was not South Korea’s business.
Australia? Its defense force is too small, as is its defense industry. The Europeans are hard-pressed looking after themselves, much less to help with Taiwan, even if they wanted to.
No ‘sure thing’ for Beijing
That all said, Xi would be rolling the dice if he moves against Taiwan. If unsuccessful, it would cost him his position, legacy and perhaps more. The Chinese Communist Party does not tolerate such failure.
And even if successful, it would isolate China as the US and other free nations finally recognize China as an enemy and actually treat it like one. This would hurt, but Xi is sanctions-proofing China’s economy and has been warning Chinese citizens to get ready to “eat bitterness.”
Meanwhile, Trump is trying to pull off the balancing act of his lifetime. He’s taking on Iran while hoping to avoid another major military problem breaking out elsewhere.
If the US and partners prevail, and a sort of friendly regime takes over in Iran, China is unlikely to move against Taiwan in the near term. Such would be the effect of the demonstration of American will and capability – and the bracing effect on America’s partners, even the half-hearted ones.
For now, Xi is watching closely as America draws down its ammunition stockpiles and risks sparking a wider regional conflict, though he can’t do much beyond providing targeting data for Iran’s missiles and drones and some supportive comments. But the longer the war continues, and the Iranian regime hangs on, the better from Beijing’s perspective.
If Iran’s Islamist regime survives, it will be to Beijing’s advantage as China will inevitably help the regime to restock and rebuild. Other regional Gulf nations that came in on the US’s side – expecting Trump would quickly “finish the job” – will be disheartened and likely hedge towards China.
Friends and enemies
Trump’s European enemies, including but not confined to Spain, would also be emboldened. Moreover, the domestic political damage to Trump will be such that his administration – and the US public – will not be interested in a fight over Taiwan against a powerful, nuclear-armed nation like China.
Perhaps then Xi just might decide that the time is right to move on Taiwan. And if American help looks doubtful or constrained, Taiwan might even roll over.
So for Taiwan and the free world, much is riding on the Iran fight. Win it, and good things happen. Lose it and bad things could spiral. Trump needs to finish the job in Iran, decisively and quickly.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book “When China Attacks: A Warning To America.”
