As the Catholic Church prepares for the conclave to elect the 267th pope following the passing of Pope Francis, betting markets have identified Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines as leading contenders. British bookmakers currently assign Parolin a 35% chance and Tagle 25% .
Parolin, serving as the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, brings extensive diplomatic experience and is seen as a figure of continuity. Tagle, known for his pastoral approach and theological acumen, represents the growing influence of the Church in Asia.
Other notable figures in the betting markets include Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, Cardinal Jose Tolentino of Portugal, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, and Cardinals Dieudonné Nzapalainga of the Central African Republic, Peter Turkson of Ghana, and Robert Sarah of Guinea.
However, historical precedents advise caution in placing too much weight on betting odds. In the 2013 conclave, Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina was not among the top favorites yet emerged as Pope Francis after five rounds of voting. Similarly, in the 1978 conclave, bookmakers favored Cardinals Sergio Pignedoli and Ugo Poletti, but it was Cardinal Karol Wojtyła of Poland who was elected, becoming Pope John Paul II.
Experts emphasize the unpredictability of papal elections. The conclave’s secretive nature, combined with the diverse backgrounds of the 135 cardinal electors—80% of whom were appointed by Pope Francis—makes forecasting challenging. The process is deeply spiritual, with cardinals seeking divine guidance, and political considerations often play a secondary role.
Among the potential candidates is Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, who has emerged as a progressive voice within the Church. Formerly known for his conservative stance, Grech has shown openness to discussions on complex issues, including outreach to LGBT+ communities. His evolution reflects the broader shifts within the Church under Pope Francis’s leadership.
While betting markets provide an intriguing glimpse into public speculation, they have historically been poor predictors of papal outcomes. As the Church stands at a crossroads, the forthcoming conclave serves as a reminder of the enduring mystery and solemnity that surrounds the selection of the Bishop of Rome.
Photo: The umbraculum, the arms of the Holy See under sede vacante superimposed on a photo of the Vatican. In the canon law of the Catholic Church, sede vacante refers to the state during which a diocese or archdiocese is without a prelate installed in office, with the prelate’s office being the cathedral. The term is used frequently in reference to a papal interregnum occurring upon the pope’s death or resignation.
Following the death of Pope Francis on 21 April 2025, the papacy is currently vacant.