Here’s what to expect from the fiery, 14-minute return of Artemis II

Death, taxes, and the gravitationally bound return of the Artemis II mission on Friday evening. These are the only certainties in life.

Even if the four astronauts on board the Orion spacecraft discovered a serious flaw in their spacecraft today—and to be clear, from recent images reviewed by NASA experts, everything looks just fine—there is no chance of significantly altering the Artemis II mission’s inexorable return through Earth’s atmosphere on Friday. They’re coming back one way or another.

Splashdown is predicted to occur at 8:07 pm ET (00:07 UTC Saturday), a few hundred miles off the coast of Southern California. In large and important ways, this is the most critical phase of the lunar flight. Here, then, is what to expect later today.

Final preparations

This afternoon, if necessary, the Orion spacecraft may make a small, final burn to correct its trajectory back toward Earth. This is to set up an entry into the Earth’s atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean, a little to the southeast of Hawaii.

At 7:33 pm, or 44 minutes before splashdown, the Crew Module will separate from the Service Module. This back half of the spacecraft, built by the European Space Agency, has provided the majority of power to Orion during the last nine days, as well as its propulsion. This will expose the Crew Module’s heat shield for the first time.

Four minutes later, using small reaction control thrusters, the Crew Module will raise itself away from the Service Module and take a final opportunity to fine-tune the angle of its entry into the atmosphere. This positioning is pivotal, as the heat shield must be oriented to properly absorb all of the heat from atmospheric reentry.

“Let’s not beat around the bush—we have to hit that angle correctly,” said Jeff Radigan, one of the mission’s flight directors.

Entry interface

After coasting for about 20 minutes following separation, the Crew Module will encounter the upper fringes of Earth’s atmosphere. NASA uses the anachronistic measurement of 400,000 feet for this altitude, which is 76 miles, or 122 km. Anyway, things will start to get very real at 7:53 pm ET as the spacecraft and crew begin to feel the effects of the thickening air.

Orion will hit the atmosphere at nearly 24,000 mph (38,600 kph), accelerating all the way as it succumbs to Earth’s gravity. Outside the spacecraft, temperatures will steadily increase, approaching 3,000° F (1,650° Celsius). The crew will be comfortable inside their entry suits, which include temperature-controlled air.

About 24 seconds after reentry, the spacecraft will largely be engulfed in plasma, leading to a six-minute blackout period. During this time, the astronauts will not be able to speak with Mission Control. And on Earth, we’ll be left in the dark about what’s happening above, when what is absolutely the most critical phase of the mission unfolds.

The heat shield

During the Artemis I mission in November 2022, a similar heat shield on an uncrewed Orion spacecraft did not fail. But it experienced behavior that was far outside the expectations of NASA engineers: Chunks of ablative material at Orion’s base that were intended to protect the spacecraft during its return fell away.

This led to a two-year investigation and an independent review. In December 2024, NASA announced it would not redesign the heat shield for Artemis II and would instead modify the entry profile from a longer “skip” reentry to a shorter one.  During Artemis I, as the vehicle descended from about 400,000 to 100,000 feet, it was under a “heat load” of various levels for 14 minutes. With Artemis II, this time will be reduced to eight minutes.

The Orion heat shield as seen after the Artemis I flight.

Credit: NASA

There has understandably been a lot of consternation about the heat shield. Initially, the commander of Artemis II, Reid Wiseman, was very skeptical about using the same one. But over time, he and the other Artemis II crew members have been won over by NASA’s engineers, who have extensively studied the problem.

NASA’s new administrator, Jared Isaacman, also had questions when he took the job in December 2025. But in January, after a review, Isaacman announced he had “full confidence” in Orion’s heat shield using the new entry profile. He invited Ars Technica to Washington, DC, to sit in on a technical briefing at the time. From this detailed information, it sure seemed like NASA had put in the hard work and testing to back up its decision.

Even so, you’ve got to go fly to be sure. And that’s what will happen this evening.

“There’s no question that I’ll be anxious,” said Amit Kshatriya, the space agency’s top civil servant, this week. “We’ve done the work. It’s impossible to say you don’t have irrational fears left. But I don’t have any rational fears.”

Splashdown

After the heat shield bears the brunt of the heating, Orion will jettison the “forward bay cover” at the top of the spacecraft at about 35,000 feet. This protective cover must be cast off for three small, drogue parachutes to deploy at about 22,000 feet. After three pilot parachutes deploy, the mains are due to come out at about 6,000 feet. The aim is to slow the spacecraft to 20 mph at splashdown.

Parachutes have been deploying from returning spacecraft for nearly seven decades. Even so, it’s a nervous moment since there is no backup. If they fail, the mission fails.

Under a nominal reentry, the crew will experience two brief periods of 3.9 Gs. However, in some scenarios, these G-loads could reach 7.5 Gs, entry flight director Rick Henfling said.

After splashdown, recovery crews from the USS John P. Murtha will approach Orion and deploy an inflatable device at Orion’s hatch, known as the “front porch.” Winds and seas at the recovery area are forecast to be calm. Recovery crew members, in a nominal scenario, will extract astronaut Christina Koch first, followed by Victor Glover, Jeremy Hansen, and finally Wiseman.

They will then be transported by two helicopters back to the recovery ship for an initial checkout. If all goes well, the triumphant astronauts will fly back to Houston on Saturday morning to be reunited with their family members.