After Midterm Defeat, President Trump Faces Risky Choices on Iran

President Donald Trump has suffered a political defeat at home, but Iran cannot assume the threat of another American military offensive has disappeared. With Democrats winning control of both houses of Congress, Israel struggling to form a government, and Tehran claiming political vindication, the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program remains dangerously unresolved.

Giorgia Valente examines the shifting calculations in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran through interviews with Iranian and Israeli experts who disagree about the prospects for war, diplomacy, and political change.

Dr. Raz Zimmt of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies identifies four possible American approaches: a broader offensive, continued pressure, a negotiated compromise, or a limited strike. Each carries substantial risks. Military action could provoke escalation without eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities, while negotiations might provide Tehran with economic relief without securing meaningful concessions.

“And so, again, there are no good options right now,” Zimmt says.

The Democratic midterm victory complicates President Trump’s calculations, although the new Congress will not take office until January. Meanwhile, Israel’s October 27 election has weakened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose allies secured only 53 parliamentary seats. Zimmt argues that even a government led by opposition figure Gadi Eisenkot would share Netanyahu’s fundamental concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Iranian analysts offer competing interpretations. Dr. Nabi Sonboli warns that further confrontation remains possible and doubts Congress can restrain the president. Former diplomat Dr. Ebrahim Roshandel sees Tehran using the Republican defeat to strengthen its domestic narrative of resistance while attempting to weaken Arab countries’ reliance on Washington.

Roshandel also predicts growing unrest inside Iran, although Zimmt cautions against assuming regime change is imminent.

Diplomacy has not stopped. Iranian negotiators have held talks through Qatari mediators, with a draft proposal circulating and another meeting possible. Yet disputes over sanctions, the American naval blockade, and the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.

Valente’s reporting explores the nuclear uncertainties, potential military targets, internal Iranian pressures, and regional diplomatic maneuvering that make another confrontation so difficult to contain. One particularly troubling issue is the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium, much of which international inspectors can no longer verify.

Even a successful strike against deeply buried nuclear facilities might leave Iran’s uranium stockpile, advanced centrifuges, and technical expertise intact.