Israeli Exit Polls Show Netanyahu Bloc Short of Majority as Opposition, Arab Parties Gain Ground

Exit polls from Israel’s three major television networks project Netanyahu’s bloc falling 11 seats short of a majority, while opposition parties also lack the numbers to form a government without additional support

Israel’s first election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks appeared headed toward another political deadlock Tuesday night, with an exit poll released by Channel 12 projecting 50 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc, 52 for the principal opposition parties, and 18 for the two predominantly Arab lists.

The 10 p.m. projection gave Netanyahu’s Likud 24 seats, making it the largest party, followed by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party with 22 seats. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party was projected to win 12.

Neither major bloc was projected to reach the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

The exit poll followed an election marked by exceptionally high voter participation, including a substantial increase in turnout in Arab communities. The Central Elections Committee reported turnout of 74.3% by 8 p.m., compared with 66.6% at the same hour in 2022.

Channel 12’s projection gave the Joint List 11 seats and Ra’am seven, a combined 18 seats that could play a decisive role in determining whether an alternative government can be formed. Although both parties oppose Netanyahu, several parties in the main opposition bloc have ruled out governing with Arab parties.

Kan 11 and Channel 13 released similar projections, both giving Netanyahu’s bloc 50 seats and the principal opposition parties 53. Each projected 17 seats for the Arab parties.

Channel 13 put Likud at 25 seats, Yashar at 23, B’Yachad at 14, and the Democrats at nine. Kan 11 also projected 25 seats for Likud, followed by Yashar with 21, B’Yachad with 14, and the Democrats with 10.

The three broadcasters agreed on the central finding: Netanyahu’s existing political alliance would fall well short of a majority, while the opposition parties would also lack the seats needed to form a government without support from additional factions.

The projections represented a reversal of the final pre-election surveys from Channels 12 and 13, which had placed Eisenkot’s Yashar ahead of Likud as the country’s largest party.

All three exit polls projected that Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party and the Reservists-Economic Party headed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha would fail to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. Their exclusion would leave 11 parties represented in the next Knesset.

Among Netanyahu’s coalition partners, the exit polls indicated losses for the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism and for the far-right Otzma Yehudit party.

Exit-Poll Seat Projections

Initial projections released October 27, 2026, at approximately 10 p.m. Israel time. These are not official vote counts.

Political Bloc Totals

Source: Initial Channel 12, Channel 13, and Kan 11 election-night projections. Bloc groupings reflect the initial broadcasts, not confirmed post-election coalition agreements.

The projections could change as official ballots are counted. Particularly close results could be affected by votes cast in special double envelopes, including those of soldiers, police officers, hospitalized patients, and other voters who cast ballots away from their assigned polling stations.

Preliminary official results are expected overnight, with the final count anticipated by October 30 and official results scheduled for publication on November 4.

Once the results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will consult the elected parties before asking a lawmaker to attempt to form a government.

The projected balance leaves Eisenkot facing a difficult choice: seek some form of parliamentary support from Arab parties, persuade parties currently aligned with Netanyahu to change sides, or risk another election if coalition negotiations fail.