European Central Bank staff members have written to the institution’s board demanding clarity over rumored early departures of President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, warning that prolonged uncertainty could damage trust in the ECB and complicate succession planning, according to a letter seen by Euronews.
In the letter, staff said they were not taking a position on the accuracy of reports regarding potential departures, nor questioning any individual’s right to consider other professional opportunities. However, they said that when such possibilities involve Executive Board members, and particularly the ECB president, they inevitably raise institutional questions. The letter was first reported by the Financial Times, which in early February also broke the news that Lagarde could depart before her mandate ends in October 2027.
Lagarde has not confirmed her next move, but has told Euronews she would like to play a role in France’s upcoming presidential election campaign, though not as a candidate herself. She has also been linked to the leadership of the World Economic Forum, a possibility first reported by the Wall Street Journal in February. Schnabel, meanwhile, is reportedly in discussions to take a senior role at the International Monetary Fund, according to German outlet Handelsblatt, though she has not commented publicly on the report.
France Pushes Knot for Top Job as Internal Letter Demands Clarity on Leadership Transition
The speculation coincides with the scheduled departure of ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, whose term ends in May 2027, raising the prospect of a broader leadership reshuffle. Staff warned that uncertainty over senior leadership could affect confidence in the ECB’s communications, unsettle staff and stakeholders, and complicate orderly succession planning. The concerns come at a volatile moment for the eurozone, with energy price swings driven by the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine complicating the ECB’s efforts to control inflation; Lagarde announced an interest rate hike last week and acknowledged the bank’s 2% inflation target will not be met by the end of 2027.
Behind the scenes, political maneuvering over Lagarde’s eventual successor has already begun. According to people familiar with the matter cited by Reuters, France would back Dutchman Klaas Knot, who led the Dutch central bank from 2011 to 2025, to become the next ECB president, provided the influential chief economist post goes to a French candidate. The informal proposal reportedly has the backing of French President Emmanuel Macron, though it would likely face strong resistance from Germany. Macron’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment, Knot declined to comment, and both the Dutch Finance Ministry and the ECB declined to comment.
The ECB president and the five other Executive Board members are appointed by consensus among the leaders of the eurozone’s 21 member states, with Germany, France and Italy holding de facto permanent representation. An early exit by Lagarde, who is French, and Schnabel, who is German, would accelerate decisions already due next year and could pave the way for a broader deal covering their roles and that of Lane.
Under the proposal described to Reuters, Knot would assume the ECB presidency with French support. He is viewed by market participants as a pragmatist inclined toward tighter monetary policy but capable of adjusting based on economic data; one French official described him as “a hawk, but in a smart way.” His main rival for the role is seen as former Bank of Spain governor Pablo Hernández de Cos, previously regarded as a swing voter on the ECB’s rate-setting council. Because de Cos is from southern Europe, his appointment would likely require the chief economist role to go to a candidate from one of the eurozone’s “frugal” northern countries to preserve institutional balance.
In exchange for backing Knot, France reportedly wants the chief economist position — chosen by the ECB president from among Executive Board members — for itself. Sources named Banque de France Deputy Governor Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Laurence Boone, former OECD chief economist and a former junior minister under Macron, as candidates on Paris’s shortlist, along with Hélène Rey, currently at the Bank for International Settlements. Appointing any of them would help preserve gender balance on the ECB board, where Lagarde and Schnabel are currently the only women.
The plan is expected to face pushback from Berlin. While it would leave Germany with Schnabel’s vacated seat and her market operations portfolio, German officials are reportedly also interested in the chief economist post, considered the board’s second most influential role. France’s rising debt levels have made Paris more determined to maintain influence over eurozone monetary policy, while a less indebted and more fiscally orthodox Germany remains cautious about any perceived softening of the ECB’s commitment to price stability.
Lagarde has publicly expressed interest in supporting European integration ahead of France’s presidential election next year, in which far-right eurosceptic leader Marine Le Pen is polling strongly. Departing before that election would give Macron a decisive role in choosing her successor before his own term ends. Lagarde has not ruled out an early departure, saying only, “You are not going to see the back of me before 2027.” Her eight-year mandate formally ends in October 2027, with Schnabel’s term concluding two months later.
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