Giorgia Valente tracks a Middle East chessboard that has shifted after Iran’s weakening, leaving Turkey with more room to move—and more eyes watching its next steps.
The story centers on an Ankara-facing reading of the region after the US-Iran memorandum, the easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and the fading reach of Iran in Syria and beyond. Turkey, analysts say, has gained diplomatic weight with Washington and new space in Syria and Iraq. Yet that same rise has made Ankara more visible to Israel as a potential long-term strategic rival.
Barin Kayaoğlu, of the Social Sciences University of Ankara, describes Turkey’s response to the US-Iran memorandum as cautious relief. Ankara hopes the deal can lower shipping and energy risks, reopen room for trade with Tehran, and reduce the danger of wider war on its borders. But Kayaoğlu warns that Turkey does not want Iran to collapse. A fractured Iran could send refugees, armed groups, border insecurity, and Kurdish tensions toward Turkey.
Dr. Hande Ortay of KTO Karatay University offers the article’s more measured lens. She says Ankara does not see Israeli rhetoric as proof of imminent war, but as part of Israel’s broader concern over Turkey’s growing clout in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Palestinian arena, and regional diplomacy. Syria emerges as the main pressure point: Turkey wants a unified Syrian state; Israel wants freedom of action and a buffer against threats near its northern frontier.
Mustafa Metin Kaşlılar, of the Turkish Foreign Policy Research Center, gives the sharpest reading, arguing that Turkey’s voice against Israeli military action has boosted its regional standing. He also says Turkey and Israel still need quiet communication, especially in Syria, because a direct clash would carry heavy costs.
The full piece is worth reading because Valente captures the tension at the heart of Turkey’s moment: Ankara has gained influence after Iran’s setback, but influence in the Middle East rarely arrives without a bill attached.
