This weekend, two Iranian Very Large Crude Carriers – HUGE and DERYA – successfully navigated the US Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and passed through Indonesia’s Lombok Strait, carrying 3.8 million barrels of crude destined for desperate Asian markets.
Opponents of US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran celebrated the VLCC’s accomplishment on social media, though it’s worth noting that this news broke on the heels of a leaked plan to grant the US military unlimited overflight access to Indonesian airspace.
The events of this weekend are likely to draw Indonesia even further into the escalating great power struggle between the US and China, putting enormous pressure on President Prabowo Subianto, who is attempting to chart a “multi-aligned” foreign policy between the two.
In addition to disrupting trade through the Strait of Hormuz, the US Navy’s policy of interdicting ships linked to the so-called shadow fleet is raising fears that the Strait of Malacca – jointly administered by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore – could be next.
Maritime capital is like the water it floats in. When a channel is dammed by military posture or political interference, capital will seek the path of least resistance. The Lombok Strait is deeper, wider and less monitored than the Strait of Malacca, adding only a few days of travel time.
VLCCs carrying millions of barrels of crude in the midst of a supply crisis can trade their cargo at a premium, easily offsetting any losses. And the longer Trump maintains his blockade, the more attractive and ultimately enduring this sanctions-proof route will become.
HUGE and DERYA’s destination – the Riau Archipelago – also reveals the limits of Washington’s strategy. Over years of American sanctions, these islands have evolved into a clearinghouse for Iranian crude, coordinating transfers to smaller, re-flagged ships largely destined for China.
This market exposes the core contradiction of America’s much-vaunted naval hegemony: it is omnipotent but not omnipresent. Identifying a dozen ships sailing under as many flags is different than actually interdicting them and dealing with the resultant political fallout.
Executing a military operation in congested waters near Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone would be diplomatically risky. And even if the US Navy succeeded, the ship-to-ship market would just pull up stakes and move to another archipelago (there are literally thousands).
This is why the Pentagon wants a blank check to operate in Indonesia. Trump needs to salvage his failing blockade by substituting air superiority for local naval control. If President Prabowo lets him, the resulting airstrikes could cause a humanitarian and environmental catastrophe.
While Indonesia technically controls its straits, it lacks the naval capacity to police these ship-to-ship markets. America intends to leverage this incapacity in coercive diplomatic negotiations: let the US operate in your airspace, or face the threat of sanctions.
China should do everything in its power to support Prabowo in resisting these demands – offering economic guarantees to offset the threat of American sanctions, as well as direct investment in Indonesia’s maritime industrial sector to bolster its sea and coast guard.
The navigation of Iranian VLCCs through the Lombok Strait portends a new era of American aggression in Indonesia. Trump has staked enormous political capital on this war, so any market that exposes the failures of his blockade will be treated as an existential threat.
China should recognize this shifting paradigm and act decisively to safeguard its energy security. This means not only shielding Indonesia from American coercion, but also ratifying the Code of Conduct and establishing a new regional maritime order – even if that means accepting tolls in the Malacca Strait.
Logan McMillen writes foreign policy analysis through the lens of critical political economy and geography, focusing on Latin America. His work has recently appeared in The New Republic, Responsible Statecraft, the North American Congress on Latin America, and Foreign Policy in Focus.
